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Nothing unexpected here -- people are moving to the usual destinations (Texas, Florida, the rest of the Sun Belt) and fleeing from pathological liberal areas, especially California which has had net domestic outmigration for three decades now and led the nation again in escapees in 2022.

We often hear anecdotal BS -- worth about as much as trying to predict election outcomes from yard signs, or the opinions of a person's tiny circle of friends -- along the lines of "My new neighbor who just moved here from [California, New York, Illinois, or whatever liberal state] is a true conservative! I was shocked!" -- but it's really nothing more than selection bias. If you live in a decent area, then chances are that many of the new neighbors you get are decent people too.

Texas is a prime target for Californication although liberals from other states clearly target it as well. Texans who live in good communities may marvel at how conservative the recent immigrants from liberal states are, but if you go somewhere like Austin (notice all the California license plates?) and ask those natives what they think of the massive influx of new arrivals, they'll surely tell you how fantastic it is that so many new like-minded liberals are arriving in Texas daily and transforming the state from blue (proper color usage) to purple.

Who is right? Well, lets see:

Texas election results

At the presidential level, in the early 2000s the state was 10-12% more Republican than the national average even when there wasn't a Bush on the ticket. In 2016 and 2020 Texas was only 5 or 6% more Republican than the national average. The same declining pattern applies to other statewide elections in Texas, so it's not just a "Trump effect" -- and that's even with rural Hispanics supposedly moving toward the GOP.

So who is causing the decline? Blacks? Nah, they're already as far left as possible. Urban Hispanics? Ditto. The answer, to a significant extent, is White invaders -- from states like California. It's been an open question for years as to how long before Texas flips to the dark side. Within a few years we'll be looking back, surprised it held out as long as it did. Obviously, without Texas there is no viable "path to 270" for any GOP presidential candidate.

Tags:

Demographics Voting with their feet Texas Californication