Another domino falls against the probability of the GOP continuing to maintain House control after 2024. Maybe a house of cards would have been a better image for the fragile and timid Republican majority in Congress.

On December 12 the Wall Street Journal published an article which noted that a cadre of liberal Democrat judges in New York has given their party a significant opportunity to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November of 2024. They did this by green-lighting a hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymander -- a belated re-drawing of congressional district lines -- which is likely to result in the ouster of four Republicans (not to mention the already-departed George Santos) from the New York delegation.

With the GOP having only the most narrow margin to work with the House, not that it's often easy to tell that they actually have control at all, a swing of four seats from R to D is extremely important. And that's only a portion of what Democrats in black robes are doing to help their party's cause (see below).

The WSJ article notes that "The [previous] map resulted in Republicans winning 11 of 26 seats" in New York in 2022. That statement is completely wrong insofar as it implies a favorable "map" had anything whatsoever to do with Republicans overachieving and winning those 11 seats.

In 2020 Democrats won 19 out of 27 congressional districts in New York. The map which was used in 2022 was even better for them, favoring Democrats in 19 or 20 out of 26 seats. The GOP merely got lucky in 2022 and won nearly every close race in marginal D+ districts (CD-3, CD-4, CD-17, CD-19, CD-22).

Even with no new Democrat gerrymander, they were highly likely to lose most of those next year anyway. The bloodbath will commence next February with the special election in CD-3, where Santos was ousted by his liberal RINO colleagues such as his next-door "neighbor" in CD-4, Anthony D'Esposito, who is the most likely of all the remaining NY Republican freshmen to get his ass kicked next November. But the Rats ain't taking any chances of more fluke GOP wins and are going to rig the game to pick up numerous House seats in NY next year.

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U.S. House Redistricting New York Gerrymander New Mexico

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The linked article was published in late November by the self-proclaimed "unbiased" website "Capitol Beat" which covers Georgia politics from an exclusively left-wing perspective. It concerns how that state's legislature is going to cope with the recent ruling of an Obama judge which demands the redrawing of district maps at all levels (state House, state Senate, and Congress) to elect Democrats and exterminate Republicans.

This came in response to a lawsuit against the state of Georgia, naming squishy Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger as the defendant and kooky racist organizations such as the ACLU and the Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity (yes, really) as plaintiffs.

Judge Steve Jones "ordered the legislature to redraw the 2021 congressional and legislative maps. The lengthy 516-page ruling specifically instructed lawmakers to add one Black majority congressional district, two more Black majority Georgia Senate districts, and five additional state House seats."

The article goes on to speculate gleefully about which congressional Republican (Rich McCormick or Barry Loudermilk) will be the one to be purged from Congress and replaced by a racist Democrat. A liberal political science professor from the University of Georgia could hardly conceal his delight as he considered the delicious prospect of the GOP-controlled legislature having the grim task of deciding "which Republicans are going to walk the plank."

ACLU lawyer Ari Savitzky issued the typical boilerplate leftist-racist drivel about how this ruling would result in "a level playing field [for blacks] and progress from the past". Oy, vey.

The state of Georgia appealed the judge's ruling but significantly did not bother to seek a stay of the order. Which meant that whatever Democrat gerrymanders occur as "remedies" in this case will be accepted by the Republican Governor, Secretary of State and legislature without a peep: just bend over and take it.

If that's not the official GOP motto, it ought to be.

At the heart of rulings such as this one and similar rulings which will cost Republicans seats in Congress in Alabama and Louisiana (and probably more states to come) are the twin racist assumptions that Whites are not fit -- at least not White Republicans -- to represent black constituents; and that in order for blacks to be elected to Congress (or to a state legislature) special districts must be created with black majorities because, unless the deck is stacked in their favor, these segregationist Democrats couldn't get elected.

As to exactly how many of these special districts must be created in a state, the answer is that the number of districts must match the proportion of blacks in the state. For example, if a state is 25% black then 25% of the districts must favor black candidates (specifically, black Democrat candidates).

That monkey-math doesn't compute in the case of the Georgia congressional delegation, however, because the playing field is already more than "level".

The state of Georgia has 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The state of Georgia is, as of the 2021 Census estimates, 32% black. Thirty-two percent of 14 is 4.48, which means that the racists demand that blacks [Democrats] hold 4.48 of those 14 seats.

They already hold FIVE of the 14 seats, and the obvious intent of this Obama judge is that they get a SIXTH seat (see bolded text above).

We'll find out very soon if this holds up in judge Steve Jones' court of "law" (don't hold your breath), but for now the Republicans in the Georgia legislature have shockingly stuck to their guns and come up with a map which has exactly as many black-majority congressional districts (5, not 6) as those bigots are allegedly entitled to.

The primary focus is on the current 7th Congressional District (CD-7), which has an ultra-liberal black Democrat incumbent (who defeated an ultra-liberal White Democrat incumbent in 2022) but up to now CD-7 did not have the requisite black majority even though Whites comprised only 30% of the voters.

The new map, in which the district in question is now labeled as CD-6 rather than CD-7, has rectified the situation by drawing the lines in such a way as to increase the black percentage in CD-6 all the way to approximately 50%, but did so without endangering any Republican incumbents at all. Ha ha.

Democrats are seething about this because, as is always at the heart of these matters, it's not about increasing the number of minority representatives in Congress; it's about increasing the number of Democrat representatives and reducing the number of Republicans, particularly at a time when control of Congress is so much up for grabs.

What happens next?

Tomorrow (Dec. 20) is the date which his majesty Judge Jones has set for his unilateral review of the new maps. Remember, "bend over and take it" is the GOP motto, not the Democrats'. So what the hell do you think is going to happen?

If the Democrats and their allied tyrants in black robes insist upon trying to mandate racist election outcomes, attempting to seize a number of districts over and above what even their own biased math indicates, an honest judge just might uphold the law and toss them out of court.

Now all the GOP has to do is find an honest judge to hear their upcoming appeal in this case. Good luck.

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U.S. House Georgia State Legislature Redistricting

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Looks like the NCGOP is trying for a home run here, and hopefully will get it. If the partisan Democrat NC Supreme Court had not invented a "law" and overturned the original GOP map which was submitted a couple of years ago, Republicans would have won 9 or maybe 10 at most (out of 14) seats in Congress. Now, ironically, they may have a chance to do even better (11-3). Ha ha.

The left-wing author of the linked article is outraged, naturally, yet was strangely silent about hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymanders in the recent past (Illinois, Pennsylvania, etc.) and will be gleeful about ones which are probably coming up in the near future (New York, Wisconsin, etc.).

If the Republicans can pick up 3 seats or so in North Carolina, that reduces the probability of election-denying Brooklyn homeboy Hakeem Jeffries wielding the Speaker's gavel come 2025. It probably doesn't reduce that probability enough, however. Even if "re-redistricting" between now and the 2024 elections is 100% neutral, the number of truly vulnerable Republican representatives exceeds the similar number for Democrats as things stand now.

If a minor miracle or 2 takes place in the 2024 Senate elections, the outcome could well be that the GOP loses the House but gains nominal control of the Senate.

Don't be too fast to count those North Carolina chickens, though. Lawsuits have surely been prepared in anticipation of this day, and whether those suits have any merit or not is irrelevant -- the idea, at a minimum, is to delay the implementation of this "harsh gerrymander" past 2024, so don't be surprised if that's exactly what happens.

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North Carolina Redistricting U.S. House

Good news (presumably) out of the Buckeye State as regards the U.S. House districts which will be used in 2024, though by a Democrat-friendly state law they will still be invalidated before the 2026 elections. The 2024 districts will be the same ones which were used in 2022, which may cause one to wonder why this is considered to be good news seeing as how Democrats were the ones who benefited in '22. More on that below, but first, some history:

Years ago, redistricting was almost exclusively a once-a-decade thing which took place after each decennial Census. District lines were redrawn to take effect in years ending in '2' and those lines normally remained unaltered until the next Census.

Those days are long gone.

Following the "Gingrich Revolution" of 1994, in which Republicans not only regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, the party also began making significant inroads at the state legislative level (especially in the South), which by 2000 meant that the GOP had control of the redistricting process in many states which Democrats had controlled forever.

Democrat gerrymanders had played a huge role in their eternal command of the U.S. House (and many state legislatures) and they were not about to let that go without a fight. When Democrats were suddenly no longer winning the game they had worked so hard to rig in the past, they simply changed the rules to try to rig things again in their favor.

As a result, legislatures (which may now be controlled by eeevil Republicans) are bypassed whenever possible, and the process of redrawing the lines is shunted off to liberal judges or "non-partisan" commissions. Furthermore, the process is no longer limited to taking place once per decade; it ends only when Democrats say it ends. Therefore "re-redistricting" has become an increasingly common event.

Just since 2022, Democrats have sued or otherwise conspired to alter legal GOP-held House districts in several states including, but possibly not limited to: Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, New York and Wisconsin. Ohio, until a couple of weeks ago, was also on the list.

According to the linked article, Ohio Democrats have withdrawn their lawsuit. The author hypothesizes that the reason for the sudden change of heart was that liberals feared the GOP legislature creating an even better map for their party. Often, when a court invalidates a map, it has some liberal group draw the map (e.g. in Pennsylvania) and doesn't give the Republicans another chance at it.

It's hard to tell what all the fear would be about in this case. When a court threw out a partisan Democrat gerrymander in Maryland prior to the 2022 elections (the first time a Democrat plan had been quashed in many years, maybe ever) it allowed the leftist legislature to redraw the map -- which it did, resulting in only a slight change in one district, which the Democrats then won anyway.

The same thing happened in Ohio too, when the allegedly "Republican" state Supreme Court tossed the original 2022 map and gave the Republicans another chance. At which point the Republicans proceeded to shoot themselves in the foot; they aren't called the Stupid Party for nothing. They deliberately sacrificed Republican Congressman Steve Chabot by creating a Cincinnati ghetto district for him, which naturally he lost to a liberal Democrat. The GOP was supposed to offset this with a pickup or two elsewhere in the state, but they blew it.

The Cincy district (CD-1) is rated as D+1 or D+2 -- it contains the good area of Warren County in addition to the bad parts of the city. So it's winnable but not a likely pickup.

CD-9 (Toledo area) is an R+ district, but the Democrats ran a typically dirty campaign against the Republican candidate on behalf of sweet, old grandmotherly (LOL) incumbent Marcy Kaptur, a liberal who has been in office since approximately the Truman Administration. Nevermind merely supporting Kaptur, the Democrats spent more against J.R. Majewski than he was able to raise himself; being a conservative, the GOPe was not anxious to help him and so they didn't.

In the very marginal CD-13 (Akron) open seat, the GOP was split, with Trump endorsing former beauty queen Madison Gesiotto, who narrowly won the primary but then was defeated by Democrat Emilia Sykes (definitely not a beauty queen) in a relentlessly negative campaign from which the fractured GOP never recovered and the seat was lost.

Democrats are clearly confident of holding all 3 of these seats in 2024, hence their acceptance of the current "Republican" map and their reluctance to take a chance on changing it.

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Ohio U.S. House Redistricting Backfire

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You'll remember Flores from June of 2022 when she scored a historic upset victory in a heavily-Mexican south Texas district (CD-34) which had never before been won by anything other than a Democrat. The old version of the 34th district in which Flores won that 4-way special election 13 months ago was pretty much a tossup and had trended slightly to the right as of 2020. Special elections are always prone to fluke outcomes due to low turnout, but the flukes usually favor the left. This one didn't.

When a Democrat wins a fluke special election, the party normally goes all-in to see that the fluke outcome becomes the "new normal" outcome and they quite often succeed; examples abound in recent decades. A Republican who registers a win like that is rare enough and holding the seat for more than a few months is even rarer, so what happened in TX-34 last November was anything but a shock when Flores lost to a well-funded Democrat by 7½ points.

As to the facts about this area, the current version of the 34th district in which Flores lost the general election in November of 2022 was moved about 5 points to the left -- by Republicans -- in redistricting. That's why Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, who was the incumbent in the adjacent 15th district, packed up his carpetbag and slithered over to the new 34th. The new 15th district was moved 2 or 3 points to the right and the GOP did pick that one up last November and hopefully will be able to hold it in the future.

Texas has no party registration but the current 34th is probably somewhere around 2 to 1, or worse, in favor of Democrats. Some of those D's occasionally vote R (slightly more so now than in the past); most do not.

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Mayra Flores Texas U.S. House Historic upset Redistricting

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The article states, quite accurately, that a "prior left-wing court invented out of whole cloth a constitutional provision that forced the legislature to create so-called fair districts."

Last November the voters in North Carolina delivered a 5-2 Republican majority to the state Supreme Court, and today that court came through by not merely overturning the illegal judicial interference with last year's redistricting, but also restoring a voter ID law which was duly passed by the voters in 2018 before being thrown out by partisan Democrat judges.

This is all great news, although the hyperventilating in the article about the GOP picking up 4 House seats in the Tarheel State in 2024 after the maps are redrawn is not terribly realistic, however a gain of 2 or even 3 might be. On the flip side of the coin, Democrats in New York are suing because they were not allowed to implement the most ridiculously partisan gerrymander (with all due respect to Illinois) in the entire nation. The lawsuit seeks to restore that gerrymander or something very close -- if not worse.

Many of the series of fluke U.S. House victories the GOP attained in New York in 2022 -- CD-3 (Santos), CD-4 (D'Esposito), CD-17 (Lawler), CD-19 (Molinaro) and CD-22 (Williams) -- were likely to be undone in 2024 even without a new gerrymander, plus CD-1 (LaLota) and CD-11 (Malliotakis) aren't exactly 100% safe either; Malliotakis may appear safe due to the margin she received in 2022, but that's only because the Democrats ran a complete stooge against her and they will not make that mistake again.

If the Democrats prevail in New York court, it will offset the presumed North Carolina gains, and more.

Adverse changes will also be coming to the district map in Ohio and possibly other states, with South Carolina as another example. If those changes in Ohio are not implemented for the 2024 election then they definitely will be by 2026. Republicans expected to pick up 2 House seats in 2022 in Ohio while maybe sacrificing one seat (that sacrifice was pretty much mandated by liberal court order when the court rejected the Republicans' original Ohio map); what actually happened was that the Republicans picked up nothing while losing one seat, as the much ballyhooed (and mis-named) "red wave" became not even a trickle, though at least they held the U.S. Senate seat with J.D. Vance.

Because the expected gains never materialized, even a less favorable district map might do little or no damage to the composition of the Ohio congressional delegation, in which the Republicans currently hold a 10-5 edge.

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North Carolina Redistricting Democrat gerrymander overturned New York Democrat gerrymander restored