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Demographics and Elections Commentary tagged with Pennsylvania

4/24/2024: [Pennsylvania] 2024 Primary Election Recap [RightDataUSA]

Here is a review of everything important which happened in the Pennsylvania primaries yesterday.

Turnout:

D votes (presidential): about 991,000
R votes (presidential): about 944,000

People on the right who habitually search for something to be disappointed about are concerned regarding the supposedly low GOP turnout. But based on current registration figures, the percentages are:

D turnout: 25.4%
R turnout: 27.0%

The races at the top of the ballot (President, Senator) featured essentially unopposed candidates for both parties, and there was little to vote for even at the U.S. House level. Since there was basically nothing contested for the GOP anywhere, what reason would there have been for sky-high turnout on that side? Democrats had some things to vote for -- a couple of statewide offices and a couple of U.S. House races.


Photo credit: Philadelphia Inquirer / Patel campaign

The highest-profile Democrat primary in PA took place in the Democrat-gerrymandered 12th congressional district, where terrorist-supporting liberal racist Summer Lee was challenged by a slightly less liberal racist Democrat named Bhavini Patel. Lee didn't bother to campaign much at all (and now we know why) but Patel did. Aside from a minor disagreement on the subject of Israel, Patel tried to stress to her potential primary voters that she was just as hate-filled toward all the "right" things as Lee is. Despite her somnambulant campaign, Lee still outspent Patel by nearly 3:1 according to FEC data from early April, and won by about 20 points.

Months ago when Lee proudly displayed her anti-Semitism by supporting the Hamas terrorists, we considered the impact that her hate might have on this primary election. CD-12 has a substantial Jewish community which did temporarily swing to the right in November of 2023 in the local Allegheny County elections even though Lee herself had nothing directly to do with that movement. That community's financial weight is far more substantial than its voting weight, but there's no evidence that they are suddenly steering their geld to the GOP. Lee only narrowly lost Pittsburgh's heavily-Jewish 14th Ward yesterday (and will apparently win it easily in November), reflecting the fact that she still has considerable support among the more atheistic, secular, ultra-liberal, self-loathing sector of that community. The remainder of the 14th Ward opted for the lesser of the two evils.

Any incumbent who prevails by less than about 70% in a primary election is normally considered vulnerable, depending of course on the composition of the district (Lee barely attained 60%). The CD-12 result in November will probably be closer than many expect but whatever hope yesterday's outcome is generating is highly likely to be false hope. Democrats still outnumber Republicans here by more than a 2:1 ratio and the vastly underfunded Republican in the race, James Hayes, will still probably lose by a considerable amount.

Hayes is a moderate conservative -- a 100% conservative would have a 0% chance of winning this district -- but his campaign treasury contains barely enough to pay for a few yard signs, nevermind expensive media buys. Unless there is some clear evidence in the internal polling that Hayes stands any chance of coming within even 10 points of Lee in November -- which is unlikely -- the RNC is going to spend its limited resources elsewhere, mainly trying to play defense for (at least) a couple dozen vulnerable GOP incumbents. Next up is one of those districts where they are frantically trying to play defense. Or at least they should be:




Photo credit: Bill Kalina, The York Dispatch


That is Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district -- the reprehensible shithole of Harrisburg, the city of York which isn't a whole lot better, and formerly-nice but rapidly deteriorating Cumberland County in between -- where liberal candidates were crawling over each other in their attempt to be "king of the hill" in the Democrat primary and have the honor of taking on embattled conservative Scott Perry in November.

CD-10 contains enough good suburban and rural territory that it counterbalances the Harrisburg and York ghetto vote and the liberal college punkie vote in Carlisle -- but the balance is precarious and getting less favorable every day. The district was heavily gerrymandered by the Pennsylvania Democrat Supreme Court when it trashed the state's entire district map in 2018, and a specific effort was made to "get" Perry from that point forward. He has managed to survive despite that effort, sometimes just barely. Democrats are going all-out this year and will spend as much as it takes; on the other hand Perry has relatively little cash on hand for such a well-entrenched and threatened incumbent.

Perry's status in Congress is unique in one respect -- east of Ohio and north of the Mason-Dixon line there is exactly one conservative Republican in the U.S. House: Scott Perry. An unabashed Trump supporter in addition to his reliable conservatism, Perry routinely causes crazed liberals to foam at the mouth. And not just liberals in the Democrat party; the liberal (money-controlling) wing of the GOP is no fan of Perry either, and there is only scant evidence of the party's support for Perry in 2024 so far.

Perry faced no primary opposition, which is good since he can hardly afford it. The winner of the Rat primary was, as expected, Janelle Stelson, a "bubble headed bleach blonde" talking head from a local Harrisburg TV station.

Stelson wasn't quite the wealthiest Democrat running in the primary field of 6; that was Mike O'Brien, a left-winger claiming to be a "patriot" who ran on his military record. O'Brien was trounced by nearly a 2:1 margin, finishing a distant second. This was always the likeliest outcome; in recent years the Democrat primary electorate nearly always adheres to the diktats of political correctness. Given two candidates with similar leftist credentials and the same mandatory hatreds, female always outranks male, black always outranks White, etc. Sorry, Mikey. If you're not openly gay or a transvestite (and maybe even if you are), you're second-class here.

In any event, the only patriot who was ever in this race is Scott Perry, and he's going to need a lot of help to not only overcome the usual Democrat $$$ advantages, but also to get his message out and overcome the relentlessly negative/biased media coverage from Stelson's allies in the Harrisburg, York and Carlisle areas. Along with the national media, which has made it a priority to help the Democrats pick up this House seat.

Unlike Pennsylvania's CD-12 which is a pipe dream for the GOP, this district really is a battleground and there are at least 20 others just like it nationwide.

These districts have Republican incumbents who are running for re-election, and who are in for the fight of their lives. Some ignorant observers believe that the supposed plethora of open Republican seats will be the ones which are going to be lost and therefore would be the districts responsible for the upcoming loss of House control. That is patently false. Control of the House will be decided first and foremost in these battleground districts rather than the open GOP districts, and both parties know it. The Democrats clearly do, as evidenced by all of the money being funneled into them.



Further down the ballot at the state legislative level, there was some good news for both parties.

In House District 50, GOP incumbent Bud Cook fended off a challenge from Stephanie Waggett. Cook, a mostly conservative representative, was accused of "having a problem with how he treats women" so Waggett changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican to oppose Cook. She appears to have lost by a wide margin, and the Democrats did not run a candidate in this GOP-leaning district.

In the extremely solid 80th District, incumbent moderate Republican Jim Gregory was defeated. Gregory crawled into bed with Democrats in 2023 to thwart legislation which would have enhanced desperately-needed election integrity measures in PA by requiring voter ID.

The GOP primary race in the 117th District (Wilkes-Barre suburbs) is still too close to call, but incumbent liberal Republican Michael Cabell was trailing by a very small amount on the morning after the primary. Cabell raised over 5 times as much money as his challenger but hopefully will end up losing anyway.




Photo credit: glensidelocal.com


But the biggest winners at the state House level were the Democrats, who audibly sighed with relief at the results of the district 172 primary, in which mentally diseased liberal representative Kevin Boyle was running for re-election.

In 2021, Boyle was arrested on charges of harassment and violating a protection from abuse (PFA) order. Two months ago, Boyle was drunk off his overprivileged ass in a Philadelphia bar shortly after midnight and played the "don't you know who the f--- I am?!?" card (a direct quote, actually) when asked nicely to leave. This servant of the people then threatened to use his political influence to have the bar closed forever and threatened to assault the female employees.

He emerged from that episode unscathed in exactly the same way that no Republican ever would, but just as the limited furor over that incident had passed, a warrant was issued for Boyle's arrest for violating his PFA. According to an article posted on the "PA Townhall.com" website, the warrant came following "weeks of escalating public outbursts from the state lawmaker, whose deteriorating mental state forced Democratic leadership to rescind his committee chairmanship". Democrats have allowed Boyle to vote remotely on legislation despite his status as a fugitive. Boyle's vote is important given the narrow 102-100 margin the Rats have recently had in the PA House. [The margin is now 102-101 after the GOP easily won a special election yesterday in the 139th District, making Boyle's continued participation from his undisclosed hideout even more critical to Democrats.]

Like any other arrogant Democrat politician/criminal, Boyle figures he's above the law. And he has good reason to think so -- because he is.

Not only is nothing happening regarding his alcohol-fueled activities from February, but just one day before the primary, hyper-partisan Democrat Philly D.A. Larry Krasner suddenly withdrew the arrest warrant which had been issued on Boyle. The D.A. lamely asserted that there was a "piece missing" in the case, that piece apparently being the fact that Boyle is not a Republican. Which means the two-tiered "justice" system works in his favor instead of against him, as Dirty Larry has ensured.

Boyle still lost yesterday, as most Democrats hoped he would. If he hadn't, Republicans would've been handed a golden opportunity to pick up the seat in November. District 172 should be at least somewhat marginal, but it normally favors Democrats pretty heavily these days.

If Boyle had won, his own party was preparing to create a law which would allow them to expel him; then there would have been a quickie special election, a new Democrat elected in Boyle's place, and the seat would have been salvaged for November. This was the same logic which impelled the Republicans to eject conservative freshman George Santos from the U.S. House, but the Stupid Party neglected to take into account the leftward lean of Santos' district and the major funding advantage Democrats always have in competitive districts, and so they threw away the seat needlessly. But at least they got rid of a conservative, so it wasn't a total loss for the RINOs!

Tags:

2024 Pennsylvania


1/4/2024: [Pennsylvania] It's not just Trump: Democrats are moving to bar Republicans from ballots nationwide [NY Post]


Photo credit: thetimes-tribune.com

We've referenced Scott Perry (R-PA) before as someone who is a prime target of left-wing hatred and someone whom liberals would dearly love to exterminate from Congress in 2024 [see commentary posted here 10 months ago] -- by any means possible. The haters have noticed by now that the hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymander which was implemented on their behalf in Pennsylvania in 2018 in violation of existing state law isn't working as intended in this case (though it worked perfectly in numerous other districts in PA). Perry is still in Congress and has been re-elected three times since the Democrat gerrymanders went into effect.

Since they can't get their way at the ballot box every time, the Democrats are now resorting to lawfare via frivolous legal actions against "insurrectionist" politicians (like Rashida Tlaib, right?) to try to bar them from being able to run for office again. A left-wing nutjob "activist" has filed suit to stop Perry from seeking re-election in 2024. The Rats know this Stalin-esque suppression of their political enemies probably isn't going to hold up in court, even in the court of a liberal judge who uses the Constitution for toilet paper, but there's no reason for them not to try.

It's a no-risk venture; the Stalinists have full control of the "mainstream" media, which helps the less intelligent voters stay that way; and the Republicans are absolutely not going to fight back by justifiably doing the same thing to election-denying (2016) Democrats like the racist homeboy from Brooklyn who is highly likely to become Speaker of the House in the aftermath of the 2024 elections.

Even if the Democrat move to bar Perry, the lone conservative Republican in Congress from the entire northeastern U.S., from the 2024 ballot does not succeed, the idea is to generate as much negative publicity for him as they can and thereby jeopardize his re-election chances as much as possible. That effort will be fully aided and abetted by the local and national media, Trump-hating (and hater of all conservatives) RINO PA Secretary of State Al Schmidt, the corrupt PA Democrat Supreme Court, and more.

Perry's district is only slightly right-leaning and getting worse by the day. It was a safe district as configured back in 2011 and Perry first won it in 2012 when thoroughly squishy Republican Todd Platts retired:

Link: PA District 10 Demographics & Election Results

The corrupt PA Democrat Supreme Court seized control of the redistricting process in 2018 -- when no redistricting was even required -- and demanded an immediate and severe Democrat gerrymander which flipped several congressional seats from R to D and greatly endangered two other Republican incumbents (Perry being one of those two).

Actions such as these by black-robed Democrat tyrants in places like PA, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia were the ONLY reason the Democrats controlled the House after 2018.

Think about the impact that had on the final two years of the Trump presidency and in subsequent years; if the 2018 congressional elections had been left to the voters instead of the judges, the Republicans would have controlled the House during those years.

In the next redistricting in PA, the corrupt Court again stole control away from the GOP legislature -- which, thanks to the Court's state-level Democrat gerrymander, is no longer in GOP control -- and then screwed the Republicans again by taking away one more seat.

Perry has managed to survive so far, and the Rats inexplicably didn't even seriously challenge him in 2022; the best they could do was a radical leftist Harrisburg city councilwoman.

They are taking no chances this time. Smelling Perry's blood in the water, so far seven liberals have lined up to take him on, including a "bubble-headed bleached blonde" media bimbo who might be the current favorite (of the far left) in the race for the Democrat nomination.

Tags:

U.S. House 2024 Pennsylvania Scott Perry Lawfare


10/28/2023: Masks Off: Alarming New Gallup Poll Blows Growing Democrat Schism Over the Israel Issue Wide Open [Redstate]


Photo credit: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Fifteen Democrats went on record as failing to support Israel after the Hamas attacks, when asked to vote on a resolution comdemning those attacks. The 9 who voted against the resolution are:

Rep. Jamaal "Fire Chief" Bowman of New York
Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri
Rep. Andre Carson of Indiana
Rep. Al Green of Texas
Rep. Summer Lee of Pennsylvania
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York
Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota
Rep. Delia Ramirez of Illinois
Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan

These 6 voted "present", thinking they could escape scrutiny:

Rep. Greg Casar of Texas
Rep. Joaquin Castro of Texas
Rep. Chuy Garcia of Illinois
Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington
Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts
Rep. Nydia Velazquez of New York

All but one of these racists represent heavily-Democrat ghetto or barrio districts, and their chances for re-election are not endangered (perhaps they are even enhanced) by this vote.

The exception: freshman Hamas supporter Summer Lee in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district. While that district does include the city of Pittsburgh and a few of its more reprehensible suburbs such as Duquesne, Homestead and Braddock, it also includes quite a bit of good suburban areas, particularly those in the western portion of Westmoreland County, where Trump won by nearly 30 points in 2020. The district is rated as D+8 because the bad areas outvote the respectable ones.

The district contains a significant number of Jews, in the Squirrel Hill section of Pittsburgh and elsewhere. When Lee comes up for re-election in 2024, it will be interesting to see if the Jews in CD-12 side with Israel or whether they are the secular, atheistic, ultra-liberal types who couldn't care less about their ancestral homeland and care only about voting straight-ticket Democrat as usual.

Ms. Lee won the Democrat primary in 2022 only by a very small margin over an ultra-liberal (but not completely psychotic, like herself) Jewish candidate; she may not be so lucky in 2024 but whoever wins that primary will very likely win the general election too.

A year from now this might all be old news, but for now it's quite current and a good "proxy" for her chances in 2024 is coming up in a few days: the 2023 Allegheny County district attorney election, in which long-term Democrat Steven Zappala was defeated in the Rat primary by a mega-woke nutjob. Zappala is now on the ballot as a Republican because the GOP naturally didn't bother to run anyone in such a normally lost-cause as this one (Zappala won via write-in votes).

If Zappala can somehow pull off a miracle win in a hardcore Democrat bastion like Allegheny County with all he'd have to overcome (Democrat fraud too, if it's close enough to warrant that), it would be a serious wake-up call to radical, racist Democrats like Lee. If Zappala gets the vast majority of Republican votes, splits the "independents" and takes a percentage of the Democrat vote anywhere close to what he received in the primary (that's going to be the toughest part) this election may be much closer than expected.

Tags:

Israel Hamas Democrat Terrorists U.S. House Pennsylvania Pittsburgh


7/27/2022: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538 [Newsweek (LOL)]


Photo credit: Getty Images

The leftists at 538 are only just now realizing that Democrats are favored to keep the Senate? Oz is toast in PA and always was, so that's minus-1 for the GOP and the loss is not likely to be offset with a Walker victory in Georgia which was supposed to be (and may still be) the most likely Republican pickup. But "most likely" still doesn't mean "likely" whatsoever. Assuming all other incumbents win too and open seats are held, that means a 51-49 Senate with the GOP on the short end.

If any other seats flip, the reality is that it's much more likely to be R to D than D to R. Wisconsin, North Carolina and maybe even Ohio are not slam dunk retentions for Republicans. Things are not 100% safe even in Utah (!) or Missouri depending on who wins that state's primary next week, however sanity is still favored though not guaranteed to prevail in both of those states in the end.

Aside from Georgia, Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada are the only plausible flips in the good direction; anyone thinking of adding New Hampshire, Colorado, etc. to the list can dream on. But don't forget Alaska, where Tshibaka (R) beating Murkowski (RINO) -- if that actually happens -- should count as a Republican pickup even though it technically isn't.

Tags:

Senate 2022 Democrats retain control Pennsylvania Georgia