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Demographics and Elections Commentary tagged with Ohio

3/13/2024: [Ohio] If the presidential slate is set, will Ohio's GOP voters still show up for the U.S. Senate primary? [Ohio Capital Journal]


Photo credit: WCMH-TV

The photo shows the three GOP Senate candidates, Larry, Moe(reno) and Curly, during a recent debate. Leftist Matt Dolan is the stooge who is positioned on the right. Moreno isn't really a stooge of course, but he's certainly surrounded by them here. Speaking of being positioned on the right, the gaslighting article which accompanies that photo was written by an ultra-liberal NPR media twerp and therefore reads like a Dolan campaign commercial.


The past: In 2022 in many important statewide elections, there was nothing to vote for in the Democrat primaries because their nominee had already been anointed. The same is true in 2024. That means Democrat party puppetmasters and Democrat voters are free to spend time and money influencing the outcome of Republican primary elections for their own benefit.

Like Nimrod Haley did during the brief time when she was supposedly a viable presidential candidate, other liberal Republicans like Matt Dolan are desperately seeking Democrat votes in their primary battles against actual Republicans. This is nothing new for Dolan, a left-wing state legislator who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and is running again this year. In 2022 he begged Democrats to vote for him in the GOP primary, because otherwise he stood zero chance against Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance.

That tactic came closer to succeeding than it should have. In polls taken only a few weeks before the 2022 Ohio primary, Dolan was barely cracking double-digits in what was essentially a three-way race with Vance and Josh Mandel. Mandel, the former state Treasurer, had been a milquetoast candidate against Sherrod Brown in 2012 and Brown mopped the floor with him. That happened despite the fact that the Republicans actually competed on nearly equal financial footing with the Democrat, which has become quite an uncommon occurrence in contested states since that time.

With the help of thousands of Democrat voters and the endorsements of other liberal Republicans, Dolan surged in the final voting to over 23%, just a fraction of a percentage point behind Mandel. Vance of course won that primary, but with barely 30% of the overall vote. Vance didn't break the one-third mark even though he had the endorsement of Donald Trump and the endorsement of former primary opponent Bernie Moreno. Moreno had dropped out of the race in February of 2022, heroically sacrificing his campaign in order to avoid a damaging split of the conservative primary vote.



The present: There's another three-way race in Ohio in 2024 for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate. Having patiently waited his turn, Moreno is back for another run and has Trump's endorsement. That endorsement was made in December but, oddly, has not resulted in a great leap forward for Moreno in the polls. The next poll after Trump's blessing actually showed Moreno with a smaller lead over liberal Dolan and moderate Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

Subsequent polls did show a small bump for Bernie, however a poll which came out this morning puts Moreno down by 3 points to the liberal Dolan with many voters still undecided less than one week from election day. That poll also shows incumbent ultra-liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown winning vs. all three GOP candidates though not yet breaking 40% against any of them.

Brown, like all Democrat Senate nominees in competitive states, has an astronomical advantage in campaign cash over his Republican challengers. LaRose in particular has practically nothing to work with compared to his opponents in both parties. As of the end of February, Brown had raised over $33 million with nearly $14 million of it still in the bank. Dolan and Moreno each are somewhere around $2.4 million while LaRose has the piddly total of $591,000 cash-on-hand. That's not enough to compete for a hotly-contested U.S. House race in a single district these days, nevermind trying to run a statewide campaign in Ohio on such a thin shoestring.

Article author Nick Evans, evidently writing on behalf of the Dolan campaign, describes the liberal legislator as "quite conservative". This causes the remainder of the article to be read through tears of laughter by anyone who is actually familiar with Dolan. In an attempt to make Dolan palatable to other supposedly conservative Trump-haters, Evans ludicrously claims that Dolan has worked feverishly to enact the "Trump agenda" in Ohio while at the same time distancing himself from the President as much as possible.

Insofar as a political candidate is known by the company he keeps, Dolan is supported by Rob Portman, the former senator and squish who is still highly regarded in RINO circles; and the highest-ranking squish in the state, wimpy Governor Mike DeWine. LaRose is doing just about as well with high-profile endorsements as he is with campaign fundraising (pretty much none at all of either one). LaRose does have the support of liberal Republican congressman Mike Turner of Dayton.

Moreno not only has Trump in his corner, but also solid conservatives such as Senators Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, J.D. Vance, Tommy Tuberville, Marsha Blackburn and others with whom Moreno will work as part of the opposition (non-RINO) caucus in the Senate if he is elected. He is also endorsed by bigwigs such as Jim Jordan, Kari Lake, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump Jr. and (oh well) Newt Gingrich. Like them or not, they are all conservative heavyweights or were in the past (Gingrich).



Insofar as a political candidate is known by what he has actually done legislatively, here is Matt Dolan's record:
  • Pro-abortionist
  • Anti-gun
  • Supported "contact tracing" and dictatorial powers for "health" officials during the plandemic
  • Opposed arming teachers (or any armed security) in dangerous urban schools or ghetto-ized suburban schools
  • Supports the Democrat vote-buying tactic of student loan "forgiveness"
  • Supports "green" energy mandates
  • Favors higher property taxes
  • Favors taxpayer-financed handouts in corrupt ghetto areas under the guise of "neighborhood development"

Yeah Nicky, he's quite the conservative.

There is only one logical conclusion, and it's addressed to only one candidate though it's probably already too late to have a significant effect:

Drop out now, Mr. LaRose, and endorse Bernie Moreno. Don't be the person responsible for giving the puppetmasters, the media, and other Democrats a win-win in November.

Tags:

2024 Senate Ohio Moreno & the Two Stooges Win-win for Democrats


1/28/2024: [Ohio] Trump ally rises as top GOP candidate against Ohio's Sherrod Brown [The Hill]

The headline is premature since no polls (yet) show what the title claims. But it's never too early for the liberal media to begin focusing their attacks on a Republican candidate, and tying one to Trump is -- they think -- a winning strategy. It usually is, but not always. Like just two years ago in Ohio, for example.

Dysfunctional Republicans have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot via divisive primaries in critical statewide elections -- mainly because the liberal wing of the party will never back a conservative in the general election and will often actually work against one; lukewarm support like J.D. Vance got here in 2022 is pretty much all that a non-liberal GOP candidate can expect. The establishment, which controls the all-important purse strings, much prefers a liberal Democrat to a conservative Republican, and in '22 they got their way in critical Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Alaska, came close in Wisconsin and North Carolina, and only grudgingly made a token effort to help in Ohio.

This sort of fracturing and backstabbing is something Democrats never go for. First of all, they make certain that the field is clear for their chosen candidate in a Senate primary in any winnable state, thus avoiding the divisiveness. Then they support their nominees with the vast resources of their campaign finance money laundries. Deliberately sabotaging one's own nominees is idiotic, which is why only Republicans do that and not Democrats.

In a state which is not winnable for Democrats, like Missouri in 2022, they let the losers battle it out with their own money in the primary to see which one gets the honor of being stomped in the general election. They don't waste time or money on lost causes, while the Republican party, with its comparatively limited resources, starves winnable candidates in order to waste cash on ludicrously unlikely pipe dreams in places like Colorado and Washington (both of which were lost by two touchdowns), as they did in '22.

Also, the Rats do not care how outrageously liberal a candidate is and they quite obviously do not demand that only the most squishy centrist be their party's choice. If a supposedly moderate candidate can't beat a drooling liberal (see the 2022 Senate Democrat primary in Pennsylvania, for example) then the drooler is the nominee and the entire party apparatus immediately gets in line behind him.

Need proof? We've published this data before, but here again are the campaign spending figures for the swing-state Senate races in 2022. All figures shown are in millions of dollars:

StateDemocrat $Republican $
Arizona$192.4$15.5
Georgia$326.1$68.7
Nevada$64.4$18.6
New Hampshire$42.2$4.2
North Carolina$38.9$15.7
Ohio$57.7$15.6
Pennsylvania$75.7$49.4
Wisconsin$41.8$35.7


In 2022 Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio the anointed Democrats were basically unopposed in their primaries and were very well-supported financially; unlike GOP Senate candidates everywhere, who were drastically outspent. The Rats lost those two races anyway, but did (almost) everything possible to win them.

In the 2020 Senate elections they cleared the field in Colorado, Georgia twice and North Carolina, were fully united, and picked up 3 of those 4 seats.

In 2018 the same applied to Arizona and Nevada and both were successful pickups. Now in 2024 the liberal GOP establishment is, as usual, ramming "moderates" down our throats and marginalizing the supporters of "can't-win" conservatives in West Virginia and Montana and to some extent Ohio, which are the only three states where Republicans have a viable chance of flipping Senate seats from D to R. WV is a sure pickup no matter who the Republicans nominate (they still greatly prefer the squishy old Governor over the young conservative Rep.) and MT and OH are tossups at best.

In Ohio, with pro-abortionist/anti-2A state senator Matt Dolan clearly on the left no matter what fakes to the center his campaign tries, and Bernie Moreno supposedly on the right, Secretary of State Frank Larose is in the middle and will be the deciding factor in the GOP Senate primary -- can he take enough votes to win, and if he doesn't quite accomplish that then which of the other two candidates does he steal the most from to deprive them of the win? Does he split the center-right vote and make Dolan the nominee, or does he split the center-left vote and inadvertently help Moreno? Dolan, a la Nikki Haley, will beg for (and get) support from Democrat interlopers voting in the Republican primary; that is a scheme which he also used in 2022.



The most recent poll in this race is over a month old and favors Moreno -- but with merely 22% for him, and 44% still undecided. None of the three frontrunners are remotely close to pulling away from the others yet, and that may never happen unless one drops out. Larose is currently coming up way short in the money battle, but even Dolan and Moreno combined have less campaign cash-on-hand than liberal incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown.

Trump endorsed Moreno back in December, a few days before Christmas. Trump's blessing is usually good as gold in a primary (and normally a lead balloon in all but the safest general elections, cherry-picked "winning percentage" aside), and no polls have apparently been taken since that endorsement of Moreno. Bernie ought to get a nice bump in the next one. If or when he becomes the clear favorite however, the media will begin to savage him even harder than the linked article at the top of this commentary does.

Tags:

2024 Senate Ohio Bernie Moreno for the win!


1/18/2024: [Ohio] Dennis Kucinich files FEC paperwork to run for Congress against Republican Max Miller [Cleveland.com]


Photo credit: news5cleveland.com

Dennis Kucinich, now 78 years old, is running for Congress again -- this time as an independent (he missed the major-party filing deadline which was a month ago). The liberal Democrat and former Boy Wonder, who was the youngest mayor in the country when he was elected to preside over the city of Cleveland in 1977, will be taking on Republican Max Miller in Ohio's 7th Congressional District.

After failing on four occasions from 1972 through 1992, Kucinich was finally elected to Congress in 1996 when he defeated moderate Republican incumbent Martin Hoke in the "White" Cleveland congressional district. Hoke's campaign was doomed when, as you may recall, he said the word "breasts" on the air when the media set him up with a microphone which he did not know was open at the time. That may not rank up there with Chappaquiddick as political scandals go, but Hoke is a Republican and his words were enough to mark him as a goner.

That started Kucinich on a House career which lasted 8 terms. He compiled an ever-so-slightly moderate voting record in Congress at first. He subsequently moved to the far left during the G.W. Bush administration, and stayed there throughout the remainder of his tenure in Congress. That tenure came to a close in 2012 when he was tossed in with fellow Democrat incumbent Marcy Kaptur in a district which spanned Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland. Ha ha.

That was the end -- until now -- of the Boy Wonder's political career aside from a 40-point loss to liberal Democrat Richard Cordray in the 2018 Ohio gubernatorial primary and a 3rd place finish in the Democrat primary for Cleveland Mayor in 2021.



The district in which Kucinich will be providing comic relief this year was created in 2022 as a slightly Republican-leaning district in the southern portion of the Cleveland suburbs in Cuyahoga County, south through Medina County and into Wooster. Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index calls it an R+7 district but R+5 might be more accurate. Under the right circumstances, the GOP could lose it.

A Kucinich candidacy is hardly the "right circumstances". Or is it?

He's likely to have little to no cash to work with, and all that his name recognition is going to get him is some laughs (voters laughing at him, that is). OK, Kucinich can't win -- but what he can try to accomplish is to trick some less-intelligent Republican voters into casting their ballots for him, just like Libertarian candidates so often do: the idea is to peel off enough GOP votes to hand the election to the Democrat.

That Democrat will be either liberal businessman Doug Bugie, who once ran for Congress over 30 years ago and finished a distant 3rd in the Democrat primary; or 2022 candidate Matthew Diemer who was outspent 10:1 by Miller and lost by 10 points. The end of the linked article is basically a campaign commercial for Bugie, who described Kucinich as one of his "political heroes". Neither Diemer nor Bugie views the Boy Wonder as a credible threat. But he may in fact be an asset.

Max Miller is a freshman and therefore somewhat vulnerable. He is a moderate/squish just like his predecessor Anthony Gonzalez, although, unlike the rabid Trump-hater Gonzalez, Miller is supposedly full-MAGA despite his moderate voting record in Congress. As noted, the 7th District is in no way rock-solid Republican. Kucinich might provide some entertainment value during the campaign, however this ploy to flip a GOP seat to the Rats is highly probable to fail in November.

Tags:

U.S. House 2024 Ohio Boy Wonder 7th District Max Miller


12/11/2023: It's a "Special" Time of Year [RightDataUSA]


Photo credit: AP

In 2024, mainly early in the year, a quartet of special elections will be held to fill four U.S. House vacancies which have already occurred or are upcoming. Cowardly Republicans expelled their conservative colleague George Santos (R-NY) on December 1, and three other Representatives have announced their pending retirements: Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH) and Kevin McCarthy (Squish-CA).

The special election to replace Santos was hastily called -- it will take place on February 13 -- by Democrats who rightfully anticipate an easy pickup of a House seat that will reduce the margin of GOP control to 7 seats (221-214). The remaining three special elections, as yet unscheduled, are unlikely to alter the balance of power any further.

Santos' election in 2022, like those of most other NY freshmen that year, was a fluke. Santos' district (NY-3) is a Democrat district and not even particularly marginal; Rats outnumber Republicans by over 10% and that fact will be apparent both in the special election and in November, 2024. Republicans normally come closer than 10% in most elections in NY-3, which means that more Democrats than Republicans cross party lines and/or "independents" break slightly more to the right than the left, however all indications point in the direction of an uphill climb for the GOP to win anything here.

Particularly the February special election, where Rat voters and the Rat party organization will be highly motivated while the RNC as usual will likely sit on its hands and blame Santos for ruining the district -- when it simply reverts to what it has always been in recent years. In special elections, low voter turnout is the norm and motivation/organization is everything.

Some have suggested that the series of fluke GOP House wins in New York in 2022 was a coattail effect from having a popular GOP nominee for Governor (Lee Zeldin was not quite popular enough, unfortunately) at the top of the ticket. Nothing like that is going to happen again in NY in 2024, and after the Democrats take the NY-3 special election barring a major upset, they will be significantly favored to hold it next November.

Anthony D'Esposito, the liberal "Republican" Santos-backstabber from the next-door 4th district in New York will (along wth some other GOP House members from New York) probably be ousted in 2024 too, but count on him running hysterically to the left even more so than he already is over the next several months in his frantic effort to keep his cushy job.



As to the other special elections, the Republicans have zero chance for a pickup in Higgins' district which includes the ghetto area of the city of Buffalo, however the GOP should easily hold the other two soon-to-be-vacant seats in California and Ohio.

Well, maybe California. Squish McCarthy's district (CA-20) is the most Republican in the entire state, so it's not a question of a Democrat winning here unless that Democrat puts an "R" after his name (see below) and runs on the GOP ticket. The question, at this moment anyway, is whether there will even be a special election. With the outcome a foregone conclusion, the Democrats are not anxious to send a new Republican to Congress, particularly one who may not be as accommodating as McCarthy was.

The Republicans, bless their hearts, are making plans as if there will be an election early next year and have already formed the customary Circular Firing Squad. The establishment is specifically aiming their fire at MAGA conservative state Senator Shannon Grove, who was the first to announce her candidacy for the opening in CA-20 [Update: After "prayerful considerations and thoughtful discussions" with her family, i.e. after the CAGOP explained to her that conservatives need not apply, Grove has withdrawn from the race.]. A couple of McCarthy-type moderate state legislators are also expected to jump into the race. The filing deadline is only a couple of days away, so we'll know soon.

In Ohio, Rep. Bill Johnson is resigning from Congress sometime before March in order to become President of Youngstown State University, much to the chagrin of the snowflakes at that institution and the ones in the local media. More information on that special election will come later.

Tags:

2024 Special election George Santos Kevin McCarthy Bill Johnson New York California Ohio


11/8/2023: Election 2023 -- It Wasn't ALL Bad News [RightDataUSA]

Yesterday's outcomes were almost entirely predictable yet were considered disappointing by the good people of America -- the same phenomenon as occurred in 2022 when the mis-named "Red Wave" never materialized and even positive developments were considered to be crushing defeats because those positive outcomes did not occur on the massive scale which many people ridiculously expected.

Of course there were lots of adverse outcomes yesterday to be gloomy about:

In Kentucky, GOP gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron was heavily outspent and allowed his opponents (Governor Andy Beshear and the liberal-Democrat media) to define him, primarily in a manner which made Cameron unpalatable to the rabid single-issue pro-abortionists of the suburbs. Being outspent and being ceaselessly under attack by the media have always been twin burdens for Republican campaigns, which normally leaves the GOP candidate two options:

1. Spend all of the time (and money) reacting and playing defense instead of attacking and playing offense, or

2. Lay down and give up entirely.

Cameron's 2023 campaign seems to have selected the latter option. The Kentucky election outcomes exactly mirrored 2019 as anticipated, with the Republicans sweeping every one of the other statewide elections including the important Attorney General office.

Back to the bad news, though there's really nothing here which should be considered surprising:

Some disgusting Democrats including one in-your-face transvestite won spots in the Virginia legislature as the Rats expanded their hold on the Senate (as expected) while also seizing control of the House (that was thought to be a tossup). Your political career was nice while it lasted, Governor Youngkin. Actually, Youngkin may have a chance (a small chance) of ousting radical leftist Timmy Kaine from the Senate in 2024 if Youngkin chooses to enter that race. Some Republican should.

New Jersey was another disappointment with the GOP expecting gains but getting zilch in the state Senate, and actually losing seats in the state Assembly. They're still counting votes, so the Republicans may not be done losing yet.

An abortioNazi won the Pennsylvania Supreme Court election, keeping the PA Democrat Supreme Court at a 5-2 partisan breakdown.

Finally, the solid "red" state of Ohio was bamboozled into voting for unlimited abortion. Whether most voters knew it or not, they simultaneously opted to bypass parental consent for their underage daughters to receive abortions. The new law also bypasses parents when young children are brainwashed by adult perverts (such as schoolteacher-groomers and the liberal media) regarding how wonderful it would be for the children to mutilate themselves via sex change operations. Read the fine print next time, Ohioans.



Now on the positive side, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves (R squish) defeated a faux-moderate Democrat who claimed to be kin to the beloved peanut-butter-and-banana sandwich eater, Elvis Presley. Apparently that's worth some votes in Mississippi. Republicans also increased their already-substantial majorities in the state House and Senate and swept all statewide offices.

In Suffolk County, New York (Long Island) the GOP cruised to a "landslide" 56% victory in the race for County Executive, which means that Republicans now hold 100% of the important offices on Long Island including the area's four seats in Congress (for one more year). GOP gains in 2021 on Long Island foreshadowed congressional success here in 2022; this win in 2023, unfortunately, will very likely not mean anything as far as GOP chances of success on Long Island in 2024.



Another race which was perhaps not of national import, but was something we touched on previously:

A significant upset occurred in a local race in Allegheny County, PA (Pittsburgh) where long-term incumbent Democrat Stephen Zappala -- now running as a Republican -- defeated ultra-liberal Soros stooge Matt Dugan for District Attorney. Pending any post-election shenanigans by Democrat vote-counters, anyway. Results in Pennsylvania very often change significantly after election night as more mail-in ballots are fabricated received.

This happy result in the D.A. contest took place even as Democrats were sweeping the rest of the county offices, as always, though the race for County Executive was closer than usual. A moonbat Democrat won by barely 2% in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

The Rats, who have re-elected Mr. Zappala every 4 years since he first took office in the late 1990s, have suddenly discovered some issues with him, now that he is a Republican albeit in name only. They tried the always-popular Race Card, accusing Zappala of desiring to bypass the black (Democrat, obviously) mayor of Pittsburgh and take control of the police department; they also falsely accused him of going easier on White criminals than black ones.

The Dugan campaign, which needless to say outspent Zappala exponentially, also dredged up a tangentially abortion-related case from over 15 years ago in which Zappala's office charged a woman who'd had a miscarriage with a crime because she then kept the fetus in a freezer. The resurrection of this story was meant to, and did, trigger the pro-abortionists who don't wish to suffer any consequences regarding their own dead fetuses.

Despite the massive Soros-funding advantage for the Democrat woketard, Zappala appears to have prevailed yesterday 51.6% to 48.4% with an estimated 30% of Zappala's support coming from Democrats.



When we referenced this election and the possibility of a miracle upset previously, the hypothesis was that perhaps blue-collar moderate Democrats would cross over to assist Zappala. In light of recent events in Gaza and the unwavering Hamas terrorist support from the national Democrat party -- including their local racist Congresswoman -- we surmised that Allegheny County Jews, particularly in the Squirrel Hill area of Pittsburgh, might be sufficiently appalled to do something other than vote straight-ticket D for a change, even though yesterday's elections had nothing to do with Israel.

So what did those voters do?

Squirrel Hill is contained within the Fourteenth Ward of the city of Pittsburgh. For some context, in 2020 that area voted soundly against President Trump by a margin of 70% -- it was 84% for Biden, 14% for Trump. In 2016, that region's love for Hillary and hatred of Trump was expressed in nearly identical proportions (83% Hillary, 14% Trump).

Yesterday the vast majority of Squirrel Hill voters again showed themselves to be atheistic, secular, ultra-liberal and self-loathing -- they are not concerned one whit about Israel as long as Netanyahu is in charge -- by demonstrating their allegiance to the Democrat party. But not by quite the normal amount.

There was approximately an 11-point swing to the right in the Fourteenth Ward, with Dugan getting 74% of the vote to Zappala's 26%. Eleven points may not sound like a lot, but in this area is it significant. In terms of raw votes, Zappala got at least 1,500 more votes in the Fourteenth Ward than he would have if the usual percentages had applied. That number by itself did not alter the outcome of this election, however it was a welcome (though almost certainly temporary) development.

Tags:

2023 Kentucky Missisippi New Jersey Virginia Abortionist Ohio Daniel Cameron Pittsburgh


9/20/2023: Ratings Update: Ohio Congressional Races Solidify as Maps Approved for Second Term [Elections Daily]

Good news (presumably) out of the Buckeye State as regards the U.S. House districts which will be used in 2024, though by a Democrat-friendly state law they will still be invalidated before the 2026 elections. The 2024 districts will be the same ones which were used in 2022, which may cause one to wonder why this is considered to be good news seeing as how Democrats were the ones who benefited in '22. More on that below, but first, some history:

Years ago, redistricting was almost exclusively a once-a-decade thing which took place after each decennial Census. District lines were redrawn to take effect in years ending in '2' and those lines normally remained unaltered until the next Census.

Those days are long gone.

Following the "Gingrich Revolution" of 1994, in which Republicans not only regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, the party also began making significant inroads at the state legislative level (especially in the South), which by 2000 meant that the GOP had control of the redistricting process in many states which Democrats had controlled forever.

Democrat gerrymanders had played a huge role in their eternal command of the U.S. House (and many state legislatures) and they were not about to let that go without a fight. When Democrats were suddenly no longer winning the game they had worked so hard to rig in the past, they simply changed the rules to try to rig things again in their favor.

As a result, legislatures (which may now be controlled by eeevil Republicans) are bypassed whenever possible, and the process of redrawing the lines is shunted off to liberal judges or "non-partisan" commissions. Furthermore, the process is no longer limited to taking place once per decade; it ends only when Democrats say it ends. Therefore "re-redistricting" has become an increasingly common event.

Just since 2022, Democrats have sued or otherwise conspired to alter legal GOP-held House districts in several states including, but possibly not limited to: Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, New York and Wisconsin. Ohio, until a couple of weeks ago, was also on the list.

According to the linked article, Ohio Democrats have withdrawn their lawsuit. The author hypothesizes that the reason for the sudden change of heart was that liberals feared the GOP legislature creating an even better map for their party. Often, when a court invalidates a map, it has some liberal group draw the map (e.g. in Pennsylvania) and doesn't give the Republicans another chance at it.

It's hard to tell what all the fear would be about in this case. When a court threw out a partisan Democrat gerrymander in Maryland prior to the 2022 elections (the first time a Democrat plan had been quashed in many years, maybe ever) it allowed the leftist legislature to redraw the map -- which it did, resulting in only a slight change in one district, which the Democrats then won anyway.

The same thing happened in Ohio too, when the allegedly "Republican" state Supreme Court tossed the original 2022 map and gave the Republicans another chance. At which point the Republicans proceeded to shoot themselves in the foot; they aren't called the Stupid Party for nothing. They deliberately sacrificed Republican Congressman Steve Chabot by creating a Cincinnati ghetto district for him, which naturally he lost to a liberal Democrat. The GOP was supposed to offset this with a pickup or two elsewhere in the state, but they blew it.

The Cincy district (CD-1) is rated as D+1 or D+2 -- it contains the good area of Warren County in addition to the bad parts of the city. So it's winnable but not a likely pickup.

CD-9 (Toledo area) is an R+ district, but the Democrats ran a typically dirty campaign against the Republican candidate on behalf of sweet, old grandmotherly (LOL) incumbent Marcy Kaptur, a liberal who has been in office since approximately the Truman Administration. Nevermind merely supporting Kaptur, the Democrats spent more against J.R. Majewski than he was able to raise himself; being a conservative, the GOPe was not anxious to help him and so they didn't.

In the very marginal CD-13 (Akron) open seat, the GOP was split, with Trump endorsing former beauty queen Madison Gesiotto, who narrowly won the primary but then was defeated by Democrat Emilia Sykes (definitely not a beauty queen) in a relentlessly negative campaign from which the fractured GOP never recovered and the seat was lost.

Democrats are clearly confident of holding all 3 of these seats in 2024, hence their acceptance of the current "Republican" map and their reluctance to take a chance on changing it.

Tags:

Ohio U.S. House Redistricting Backfire


8/9/2023: Ohio Voters Reject Bid to Stunt Abortion Rights Measures [Newsmax]

First Kansas, then Kentucky, and now we can add Ohio to the list of allegedly solid "red" states which surprised Republicans by thwarting ballot measures which would do anything to even slightly reduce the prevelance of that Blessed Holy Liberal Sacrament of Abortion.

Once again, Democrats effectively motivated their voters while Republicans were complacent and took this off-year election lightly -- as they also did in April's Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, where the GOP's resounding defeat in that race has effectively handed Democrats total control of the Badger State's government.

That's a fact which will be demonstrated perhaps just a few weeks from now, when the Democrat Court reconvenes and begins trashing all current election district maps in Wisconsin and replacing them with hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymanders at the state legislative and congressional levels, to be used for 2024 and for the remainder of this decade. The plan is to cost the Republicans at least two seats in the U.S. House in 2025 and quite possibly flip both houses of the Wisconsin legislature to Democrat control.

Just as the shocking pro-abortionist victory in supposedly deep red Kansas in August of 2022 served as an indicator that there would be nothing resembling a "red wave" in November (in Kansas or just about anywhere else) despite the fever dreams of the hopium addicts which lasted all the way until election night, yesterday's result in supposedly deep red Ohio can be taken as a similar canary-in-the-coal-mine for November of 2024, when Democrat Sherrod Brown will likely cruise to another Senate win in Ohio and Republicans will have their hands full trying to get that state's 17 critical electoral votes. Ohio is not a mortal lock to go in the GOP column, and yesterday's vote highlights that fact.

In Kentucky, the same suburban soccer mommies and other whores whose pro-abortionist votes carried the day in 2022 will be instrumental in the upcoming easy re-election of pretty-boy Democrat Andy Beshear as Governor. This liberal empty suit is heavily favored as of now to prevail over a good conservative Republican opponent in three months. Hopefully the GOP will be able to retain the state row offices, which they surprisingly swept back in 2019 even as another good conservative (Matt Bevin) was being ousted from the governorship.

Back to Ohio....

Wouldn't yesterday's important election have been a nice opportunity for Republicans to implement their new favorite election tactic -- ballot harvesting -- instead of merely giving it lip service? The GOP leadership (Trump and occasionally Ronna McRomney) throws those words around because they know that GOP voters want to hear that the party is going to do something to try to compete on more equal footing against Democrat fraud efforts. Unfortunately the term "ballot harvesting" is just a handy buzzword to them and nothing more. The amount of money and level of organization required to change those words into actions are not forthcoming and will not be in place in any widespread systematic manner on the Republican side for 2024.

Tags:

Ohio Abortionist


7/18/2023: [Montana] Meet the Republicans trying to beat Tester, Manchin, and other vulnerable Senate Democrats [Washington Examiner]


Photo credit: Bloomberg Government

The first paragraph of the article, mainly telling us what we already knew:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have been working for months to recruit the most electable candidates in must-win swing states to retake the majority next year.

"Electable" of course means "someone who is a moderate/liberal toady for Mitch McConnell, like Steve Daines is". The liberal Republican establishment is sticking to the lie that the only reason why the GOP isn't in control of the Senate today is because of all the supposedly flawed candidates who lost in states like Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania during the failed "red wave" of 2022. Add in other states such as Nevada which were ripe for a pickup and a couple more ridiculous pipe dreams (Colorado, Washington) and some lunatics seriously expected a GOP majority of something like 10 seats right now, 55-45 or so.

The party seeks to make sure that only approved Mitch Bitches get on the ticket for 2024, and no more "flawed" conservatives. When that strategy fails next November, the GOPe excuse will be that conservative voters didn't do their job and let the party down.

Here's a howler from the article, regarding Montana:

The establishment has "coalesced around former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy's candidacy while privately dissuading Rep. Matt Rosendale from throwing his hat in the ring. Sheehy has the backing of Daines and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT), while Rosendale has the backing of the well-funded Club for Growth despite not being in the race yet. Party establishment has said that Rosendale's 2018 loss to Tester proves he cannot win statewide."

Then the party establishment consists of idiots, liars, or both. You see, Rosendale, who is a far more conservative option than Squish Sheehy, in fact DID WIN STATEWIDE in Montana in 2020, by nearly 14 points against a very well-funded liberal Democrat to boot.

The article goes on to note that the GOPe is "staying out" of the primary in Ohio -- because they can easily see that the right-ish primary vote will be split between Secretary of State Frank LaRose and MAGA conservative Bernie Moreno, allowing liberal state Senator Matt Dolan to prevail by getting the primary votes of many Democrat infiltrators who will never vote for him in the general. Why should the GOPe interfere when things are going so well for them? You should already be well aware of the liberal machinations in West Virginia, with the GOP backstabbing conservative Rep. Alex Mooney in favor of doddering moderate Governor Jim Justice.

Now back to the "bad candidate" lie of 2022. True that the quality of some of the GOP candidates was less than great (Oz leaps to mind), but it's also been true for a long time that the GOPe will ensure that candidates it doesn't approve of (conservatives) will not succeed in general elections, and the best way to do that is to fail to support those candidates with $$$$ and thereby concede massive financial advantages to the Democrats.

Check this out from the key swing state Senate races in 2022:

Arizona: D spending, $192 million; R spending, $15 million

Georgia: D: $326 million; R: $69 million

Nevada: D: $64 million; R: $18 million

New Hampshire: D: $42 million; R: $4 million

Pennsylvania: D: $76 million; R: $49 million

Even in states the GOP won (barely) in 2022, Democrats still had massive spending margins over their Republican opponents; the Rats made sure that their ultra-liberal Senate candidates in Wisconsin and North Carolina didn't have to rely solely on their melanin advantages, and therefore they also had far more resources to work with than Ron Johnson or Ted Budd. In Ohio, J.D. Vance was outspent by close to 300% (!), but then Ohio isn't supposed to be a swing state so the Democrats theoretically needed to pump in tremendous cash just to have a fighting chance. Ohio will obviously be a lot tighter in 2024 than it was in 2022, and this time all that Democrat cash will be critical.

Looking at the financial picture as it is developing for the 2024 Senate races, in every state where the GOP can even dream of making a pickup -- including West Virginia -- the incumbent Democrat is starting out far ahead in the money race. Even where there isn't a Democrat incumbent who is running again (Michigan) the liberals are still miles ahead in geld. With it still being so early in the campaign season, perhaps that's not the most meaningful way to evaluate electoral chances because incumbents always start out far ahead.

Oh yeah?

The loony left has at most only two semi-realistic possibilities of taking a Senate seat from the Republicans in 2024 and in one of those -- Texas -- GOP incumbent Ted Cruz is already trailing his dumb-as-dirt opponent in fundraising, and that trend is likely to continue through 2024. The Democrats are laser-beam focused on taking Texas because once it finally flips from true blue to commie pinko red, any Republican has a 0.0% chance of ever winning another presidential election. Since the Rats can't make their presidential candidate (presumably Biden, for now) attractive to Texans, they are sinking tons of cash into the Senate race in the hopes that the coattail effect will work up the ticket as well as down.

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Senate 2024 Montana Ohio West Virginia Democrat mega-$$$$ advantage


7/3/2023: Senate rankings: five seats most likely to flip [The Hill]


Photo credit: Matt York, Associated Press

"The Hill", of all sources, contends that every one of the five most allegedly endangered Senate seats up in 2024 are currently held by Democrats! The five are: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona and Wisconsin. We know that's hardly wishful thinking on the part of that leftist site, but are these pickups actually realistic or is this just a lot of crocodile tears to go with the veiled warning to Democrats to get busy doing whatever is necessary (wink, wink) to keep those seats, especially with Senate control at risk?

West Virginia: is supposed to be a slam-dunk pickup, perhaps with Joe "I've never lost an election in my life" Manchin deciding to keep his record intact by failing to run again and making the pickup a 100% certainty. The GOPe firmly supports moderate Governor Jim Justice and will do whatever it takes to prevent conservative Alex Mooney from getting the nomination. If Manchin really is as much of a "centrist" as some folks claim, the transition from Manchin to Justice in the Senate probably won't be very noticeable when it comes to their voting records.

Montana: The GOPe is rallying behind businessman Tim Sheehy, which probably tells you everything you need to know about this newcomer's politics. The question remains as to whether 2018 candidate and current congressman Matt Rosendale will enter the race. The Republicans lost Montana in 2018 for the same reason they lost West Virginia -- their candidate was attacked for the crime of not being born in the state (that plus some other Dirty Democrat Tricks, particularly in Montana). If Rosendale tries again in 2024 he'll do better than 2018, but he might be too conservative for his party's establishment.

Ohio: The GOP doesn't even appear to have a viable candidate. State Senator Matt Dolan is a liberal who got barely 20% of the vote in the 2022 Republican Senate primary, most of those votes coming from Democrats; Bernie Moreno is trying to paint himself as the MAGA candidate a la J.D. Vance, and will probably get a Trump endorsement if he can demonstrate a substantial lead in the polls. Ohio is not the solidly Republican state that the hopium addicts wish it was. For proof of that statement look no further than Sherrod Brown's past electoral successes, including 2018 when we were assured that Brown was toast because Trump won Ohio in 2016. Oops.

Arizona: Republicans can always count on a fair election in Arizona of course (LOL) but even if that really was the case their only hope here is for a 3-way race between the slimy "independent" incumbent (Sinema) a really slimy Democrat congressman (Gallego) and whoever the GOP nominates; that way the Republican could win with merely a plurality of the vote, and a plurality is probably the best they can do in this state these days. Some believe that Kari Lake will be back for a repeat of 2022. She was too good to be allowed to win then, and the same applies now. Whether it takes threats, bribes or both, Independent Sinema may not even choose to run for re-election, clearing the field for the Democrat nominee to very likely prevail next November.

Wisconsin: Rebecca Kleefisch, who would probably be Governor right now if it weren't for Trump's misguided and ineffectual endorsement of proven loser Tim Michels in 2022, would be a very good candidate and former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke would be good as well. Unfortunately, the GOPe is far more interested in millionaire candidates who will spend their own funds and not waste the apparently limited amount of cash the party has to throw around this cycle ("Pleez send us munney!"). Better still for the GOPe, the typical millionaire-type candidate often tends to be a squish although in this case Wisconsin venture capitalist Eric Hovde is described as a "conservative activist", at least by those on the left who hate him. So maybe he's not bad, but any Republican starts off as a clear underdog here.


Other possibilities, but don't hold your breath: There's Michigan, where incumbent liberal Debbie Stabenow is retiring in 2024 and will likely be replaced by well-funded liberal congresswoman Elissa Slotkin. There are a lot of GOP possibles to take her on, but none of them are serious threats to win. Except perhaps former Detroit police chief James Craig, who tried to run for Governor in 2022 but made the rookie mistake of having Democrat operatives in disguise gather signatures for him, which were deliberately falsified and Craig was kicked off the primary ballot at the last minute, leaving nothing but a field of underfunded and outclassed twerps on the Republican side. Hopefully he'll be smarter this time around.

Then there's Nevada, where the current Democrat Senator barely got 50% in 2018 against former Republican incumbent Dean Heller, who ran screaming to the left in a failed effort to keep that seat. The string-pullers on rare occasions allow the GOP to win a close election in Nevada (e.g. 2022 Governor) when the Republican candidate is acceptable to the left. If Sam Brown or Jim Marchant becomes the Senate nominee: (a) either one would make a great Senator, therefore (b) that is not going to be one of the few times the puppetmasters will allow the Republicans to win a statewide general election in Nevada although the result would likely be close. The GOP could simply nominate an eternal loser such as Adam Laxalt or Danny Tarkanian again, at least that would remove any suspense regarding the outcome.

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Senate 2024 West Virginia Slam dunk Montana Ohio Arizona Wisconsin Wishful thinking Michigan Nevada