Over the past few days, two moderate Republicans have announced that they will not be seeking re-election in 2026: Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Both of these anti-conservative politicos have taken great pride in being a thorn in the side of the majority of their party, and they bask in the positive media attention they get when they oppose President Trump.
Trump normally saves his greatest degree of vengeance for those who oppose him from the right (such as ex-Rep. Bob Good or current Rep. Thomas Massie) while going easier on Republicans who come at him from the other direction (such as Impeachment RINO Dan Newhouse of Washington), and he nearly always endorses squishy moderate incumbents over conservative challengers even in the safest of Republican districts. However, Trump recently declared War on Tillis and, probably as a result of that, Tillis has decided to scram. Trump's reaction notwithstanding, Tillis did not become a darling of the left only recently; he had already sealed his probable re-election fate months earlier.
Fried Bacon:
Photo credit: AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Although he did not make the official announcement until June 30, there had already been chatter that Bacon was through after this term. He was first elected alongside future nemesis Donald Trump in 2016, defeating erratic Democrat incumbent Brad Ashford by 1.2%. Ashford started out as a Democrat, switched to Republican, then became an Independent, then back to Democrat again. He used his scattershot background to provide cover for his natural liberalism; although Ashford campaigned as a moderate he nearly always voted as a liberal during his lone term in Congress.
Bacon survived the anti-Trump liberal landslide of 2018 because the so-called moderate Ashford was edged out by far-leftist Kara Eastman in the Democrat primary that year; Ashford would have likely won the general election rematch, but Bacon lucked out by having a more "progressive" opponent who repelled enough moderate voters to seal her defeat.
Bacon was truly a moderate during his first term and part of his second one (2017-2019) but he began to panic and/or seek liberal media approval for his "maverick" status during the COVID year, and his voting record jumped noticeably to the left. His record has stayed that way ever since. It could be successfully argued that, as bad as Bacon is, he remained a good fit for his ever-deteriorating district (NE-2) which is based in and around the city of Omaha. Bacon won 5 times without ever getting even 52% of the vote in this highly marginal district, which is impressive in its own way.
Bacon's greatest achievement was his most recent victory in 2024. It's rare that a long-term House incumbent suddenly becomes an underdog absent some scandal or adverse redistricting (neither of which applied to Bacon in 2024), but liberal Democrat Tony Vargas was leading in every poll taken from mid-August on and nearly every prognosticator -- including us -- expected Bacon to lose; he won by 1.8% in one of the most surprising outcomes on election night.
Nebraska congressional district 2
Nebraska's Second Congressional District contains all of Omaha, and the city comprises 75% of the district. It is the other 25% which (so far) has kept this a Republican seat in the House. By 2024, the White percentage of the district was down to approximately 65% (it had been 80% as of the early 2000s) while the Hispanic percentage continues to rapidly increase. This district -- which awards its own Electoral Vote in presidential elections -- not only has rejected Trump twice in a row now, it also voted heavily against incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer in 2024, preferring "independent" Dan Osborn by a whopping 12 points. NE-2 did vote Republican for Governor in 2022 and for the other Senate seat (Ricketts) in 2024, however it was by the narrowest of margins. Led by Omaha, the district is obviously trending leftward and is now rated as D+2. Even as recently as 2020 it was rated as leaning to the right by a miniscule amount, but those days are gone.
John Gizzi -- who at one time was a respected political analyst for the conservative publication Human Events but now in his dotage regularly reveals himself to be a member in good standing of the GOP establishment -- crafted an article for Newsmax on June 26 which correctly anticipated Bacon's departure. That article contains a couple of errors however, one of which is a hilarious whopper but quite appropriate for an establishment RINO to make.
Photo credit: 3newsnow.com
Minor error #1: former Omaha Mayor and nominal Republican Jean Stothert (elected in 2013, 2017 and 2021) is not a transvestite and therefore is not a "he" as a quote from the article states; a minor error but one which reveals a certain amount of cluelessness on the part of the quoter, who was a former chairman of the Nebraska Republican party. That guy did get one thing right -- Stothert is surely no conservative. Stothert had her easiest election in 2021 when three liberal Democrats split the primary vote and could not reunite in time for the general election one month later. Stothert lost in May of 2025 by almost 13 points to a liberal black Democrat, conclusive evidence of how the city of Omaha has finally completed its journey to the dark side. Even granting that Stothert's general election campaign in 2025 was sabotaged by Republican primary loser Mike McDonnell (who spitefully endorsed the Democrat), it seems that even moderate Republicans no longer need apply for electoral employment within the city limits.
The mayor of Omaha is technically a non-partisan position (like the state legislature) but the parties of the candidates and officeholders are rarely a secret.
Major error #2: Gizzi's own blunder in the article is a real howler: claiming that Brett Lindstrom, the presumptive GOP nominee for the open NE-2 seat in 2026, is "considered a strong conservative". In reality, Lindstrom is just so much leftover Bacon. He can usually be found on the left flank of the Republican party in Nebraska and at one time was the most liberal Republican in the Nebraska state legislature. During his time in Lincoln, Lindstrom's conservative ratings from CPAC were:
2015: 64%
2016: 54%
2017: 75%
2018: 73%
Having moved to the right while running for re-election for the first time in 2018, Lindstrom was safely returned to office for a second term -- and safely returned to being the liberal which he really always was. When he decided that he wanted to be Governor and would therefore have to appeal to conservative voters statewide by moving rightward (if he could win the primary while running to the left) -- a neat trick, but a common one for liberal Republicans -- Lindstrom began moderating his voting record in 2020.
2019: 52%
2020: 63%
2021: 64%
2022: 80%
In 2022 Lindstrom was absent (or failed to take a position) for nearly half of all key votes including one on abolishing the state income tax and another vote on preventing election fraud.
In 2022 Lindstrom finished third in the GOP primary for Governor. Moderate Jim Pillen won that primary (and then the general election, easily) and conservative Charles Herbster finished second after leading in the polls; he was slimed with some Clintonian-type accusations of sexual indiscretions. Herbster was endorsed by Donald Trump and others on the right; Pillen had all the moderates in his corner; Lindstrom was supported by some ex-Republicans who became Democrats, and he was endorsed by moderate-liberal Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert.
Even a squish like Pete Ricketts (a Pillen supporter) considers Lindstrom to be too liberal. Here is a quote from Ricketts which appeared during the '22 gubernatorial campaign: "Brett Lindstrom raised the gas tax 23%, opposed voter ID, gave taxpayer benefits to illegal immigrants, repealed the death penalty, and even tried to gut the Property Tax Credit Relief Fund. It's no wonder Democrats are supporting Lindstrom -- his liberal record speaks for itself."
And this guy is the best we can do while trying to hold the NE-2 House seat? Sadly, that may be the case.
Toasted Tillis:
Photo credit: Washington Post
Business executive Thom Tillis was elected to the North Carolina state House in 2006 after one term as a city commissioner. Tillis compiled a conservative voting record (but was a more bipartisan type aside from some of his positions on key votes) during his 4 terms, and was Speaker of the NC House from 2011 through the end of his tenure there. True conservatives very rarely ascend to the position of Speaker even in the most conservative of states, and North Carolina isn't one of those anyway.
Liberal Democrat Kay Hagan, defeater of Elizabeth Dole and a rubber stamp for the Obama agenda in the Senate, was up for her first re-election bid in 2014. Polls showed her as being increasingly vulnerable heading into that election year, and numerous Republicans were considering opposing Hagan. Tillis jumped into the GOP primary as the favorite and received endorsements from high-profile squishes like Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. Tillis' major opponent for the nomination was conservative "activist" and physician Greg Brannon. But Brannon was not a serious threat, never led in any poll against Tillis, and finished second in the primary, with 27.1% to 45.7% for Tillis.
For the general election, Democrats flooded the state with oodles of money on behalf of their doomed candidate and additionally invested $36 million in "independent" expenditures against Tillis. Despite the massive disparity in funding in favor of the Democrat (an extremely common occurrence in Senate elections in recent years), Tillis eked out a 1.5% upset victory over Hagan.
North Carolina Senate election results, 2014
Tillis carefully walked a line down the middle of the road during his first two Senate years (2015-2016) which corresponded with the final two years of the Obama administration. Desperately seeking to project an image of moderation in his sharply divided state, Tillis supported Obama somewhat more often than he opposed the president on Senate votes. Tillis was a staunch (though not entirely reliable) supporter of Donald Trump during Trump's first term in office.
In 2020 Tillis faced another big spender, Democrat Cal Cunningham. Cunningham, a former U.S. Army lawyer, tried to portray himself as a sensible, patriotic moderate who was not on board with fashionable radical leftist causes like "Black Lives Matter" and "Defund the Police". As in 2014, Tillis -- though now having the advantage of incumbency -- trailed throughout the COVID summer and into the fall. Even the final polls predicted a 2-4 point win for Cunningham. A month before the election, the married Democrat patriot was found to have engaged in "sexting" with a woman not his wife. These revelations were typically downplayed by the media and Cunningham suffered no damage in the polls. But just like in 2014, Tillis pulled off the upset and prevailed by a small margin in November.
Romney and Tillis: Birds of a Feather Photo credit: newsmax.com
With Trump safely out of the picture now, Tillis emerged as even more moderate (actually, liberal) than he had been in the past; his support for the Biden administration's policies and his opposition to conservative principles were both running in the 40% range from 2021-2024; that's Mitt Romney territory, though not quite as reprehensible as Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski.
Trump's return to the White House has caused Tillis to largely abandon whatever was left of his principles. All politicians (not just Donald Trump) have massive egos, and few of them have larger egos than the "Elite 100" who occupy the United States Senate. Tillis, among some others, objects to the pressure to blindly obey the president's every wish regarding legislation. Occasionally in 2025 this is a good instinct for a Republican, but most of the time it is not. Tillis began the second Trump administration by railing (and voting) against worthy presidential nominees like Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense and Ed Martin for U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia. Tillis singlehandedly derailed the Martin nomination and his ex-sister-in-law was the driving force behind the smear campaign against Hegseth. So Tillis wasn't just voting the wrong way -- he was doing much more damage than that, whether directly or indirectly.
Those actions, along with his other recent anti-conservative tendencies, made Tillis' 2026 re-election prospects quite dubious. The last straw was his vote against the "Big Supposedly-Beautiful Bill", which triggered Trump's wrath. Tillis The Moderate would be highly vulnerable in the Republican primary while remaining an underdog in the general, still reviled by North Carolina Democrats no matter how much of a centrist he thinks he is now.
NC Senate outlook for 2026:
So-called experts have designated the 2026 Senate election in North Carolina as a tossup, but anyone with multiple functioning brain cells would forecast exactly the same thing. No expertise is necessary to see that we are likely heading for another super-close statewide election in a state which specializes in such results. Hopium addicts on the right insist that North Carolina is a solid "red" state, but it is nothing of the sort even though it has voted Republican for president 11 of the last 12 times.
The last 5 presidential elections in North Carolina have been decided by an average of just 2.1%. The margin of victory in recent elections for Governor or Senator averages somewhere in the 5-6 point range. The outcomes of statewide row-office elections are even closer, with only two opposed candidates getting even 55% of the vote (and then just barely) in the past 13 years, covering a total of 35 elections.
The 2026 Senate race was a tossup from the beginning, whether Tillis ran or not.
The top Democrat contender is obviously former Governor Roy Cooper, who should be announcing his entry into the race any minute now. Cooper's average percentage in his two elections for Governor was barely 50%, yet he comes in as the favorite to be the next Senator from North Carolina. His token opposition in the Democrat primary would be one-term former congressman Wiley Nickel, a liberal carpetbagger who spent his life in California and Washington DC before migrating to North Carolina a few years ago. He won a close House race in 2022, but when the Democrat gerrymander of North Carolina's district lines was rightfully invalidated by the state Supreme Court, Nickel found himself in a no-win situation and failed to seek re-election in 2024.
Photo credit: Carolina Journal
The Republican side is wide open. Lara Trump, chairman of the Republican National Committee for a little over 10 months in 2024-25 (and the daughter-in-law of President Trump) is the heavy favorite for the GOP nomination if she chooses to seek it. A native of the Tarheel State, Trump will still face allegations of carpetbaggery because she has spent much of her adult life elsewhere.
A hypothetical matchup between Trump and Cooper shows -- guess what? -- a close race! Lara Trump will face unprecedented amounts of hatred in 2026 if she is on the ballot, but Roy Cooper is far from unanimously popular despite a media-burnished image as an alleged moderate. Cooper would probably win against any Republican, but November, 2026 is an eternity away and gleeful Democrat prognosticators may find 17 months from now that their crystal balls weren't so accurate.
Other potential Republican Senate candidates include a large number of opportunistic congressmen, several of whom are still in their first term:
- Pat Harrigan, newly elected in the 10th district (mostly suburban areas like Mooresville, but also part of urban Winston-Salem) and one of the best of the non-Trump alternatives. Harrigan is a young military veteran, a Green Beret who served in Afghanistan and a solid conservative so far in Congress. Harrigan has declared that he will not run for the Senate if Trump does, so as not to split the right-wing vote.
- Tim Moore, newly elected in the 14th district (Gastonia, Shelby, Charlotte suburbs). He is a lawyer and career politician with a resume much like that of Thom Tillis (uh oh). Moore spent 22 years in the N.C. state House before moving up to D.C. He was the Speaker of the House for 10 years but is still thought to be somewhat conservative.
- Greg Murphy, currently in his fourth term in the House after winning a 2019 special election to replace the late Walter Jones in the 3rd district. Murphy has been re-elected easily three times and has compiled a record which began as fairly conservative but has moved a bit to the left since his initial term.
- Addison McDowell, another very young (31 years old) freshman House member from the 6th district (suburban areas around Concord, Greensboro, High Point and Winston Salem). McDowell's main electoral challenge came during the 2024 primary where he narrowly defeated former congressman Mark Walker. Walker was the true conservative in the race. McDowell faced no Democrat opposition in November, but a Constitution party candidate received 30% of the vote (which is a lot for a penniless third-party candidate) and even won the portion of the district closest to Greensboro. McDowell has been a reliable party-line voter in the House so far, but it's early yet.
- Dan Bishop, former 2½-term congressman and one of the most conservative representatives during his 6 years in DC; he along with Harrigan would be the most conservative Senate options if Lara Trump takes a pass. Like Murphy, Bishop was initially elected in a 2019 special election. He opted to seek higher office (NC Attorney General) in 2024 but was dragged down by the Mark Robinson Debacle and lost to liberal Democrat Jeff Jackson for that important position.
- Brad Knott, the fourth freshman congressman on this list. He represents a suburban/rural ring of territory around Raleigh. Knott's voting record is indistinguishable from that of his freshman Republican colleagues -- loyal, but not enough data to draw conclusions from yet. Knott finished second to Kelly Daughtry in the 14-way House primary in 2024. She had more money and openly supported conservative/Christian values; he had Donald Trump's endorsement and also that of Senator Ted Budd. Daughtry graciously declined the runoff election and backed Knott.
Summary: The seat is probably Cooper's if he wants it. Despite Cooper's reputation as a moderate, the dominant liberal wing of the Democrat establishment will be 100% behind him (they don't really have anyone else here) and Cooper will most likely have at least twice the amount of money to work with as the GOP candidate; the difference will be well into the tens of millions.
Wiley Nickel won't even be a dime's worth of a threat to Cooper in a Rat primary, but the Republicans need to avoid a contentious primary as much as possible and then fully unite behind the winner. Otherwise, defeat in November is practically guaranteed.
Can a true conservative like Bishop or Harrigan (or Trump?) win a Senate race in North Carolina? Will we get to find out? Given the fact that the media will doggedly defend Cooper and his position as a so-called moderate, and will offically assign whoever the Republican nominee is to the "far right", we may as well go with a winner who would make us proud if he/she makes it to the Senate.
As opposed to enduring another Thom Tillis.
If Cooper really is the moderate he claims to be (spoiler alert: he's not) then his voting record in the Senate wouldn't be a whole lot different than Tillis' was. He may even be allowed to have carefully-controlled moments of dissent from party orthodoxy, a la John Fetterman, a/k/a "The Last Sane Democrat" in Congress. Of course we'd prefer a Tillis clone to that, but the GOP has its work cut out for it to ensure that "Senator Roy Cooper" doesn't become a reality. Cooper may surprise us all and choose not to run, but he will be (and already is) facing tremendous pressure to toss his hat into the ring.
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2026
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