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Demographics and Elections Commentary tagged with Crockett's big lie

1/16/2026: [Texas] 2026 U.S. Senate Race Update -- Jasmine Crockett and the Big Lie [RightDataUSA]


Photo credit: slaynews.com

On January 15 a new poll covering the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas was released. That poll, taken by Emerson College, shows phony Christian state representative Holy James Talarico with a 9-point lead (47% to 38%) over unhinged racist congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. In the 3-way primary on the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a 1-point advantage (27%-26%) over incumbent squish John Cornyn, with congressman Wesley Hunt trailing at 16%. Nearly 30% remain undecided.

The primary elections will take place on March 3. If a runoff is required because no candidate reaches 50% in the primary -- as will surely happen with the GOP -- that runoff will be held on May 26. The probability of the Democrat primary resulting in a runoff is infinitesimal, a factor which will give that party's March winner nearly a 3-month head start on general election campaigning.

Hunt, the virtual unknown in the Republican race, has actually seen his percentage slip in the polls recently instead of increasing. Practically every survey shows a tight primary battle between Paxton and Cornyn, although some of them had previously indicated the possibility of Hunt making the runoff at Cornyn's expense. One Democrat push-poll of Republican voters taken in early December showed Paxton well ahead of the other two GOP candidates, a polling outcome which conceivably reflects nothing more than the Democrat desire to have Paxton as the eventual nominee because they feel he would be easiest to defeat in November.

Emerson's general election polling matchups reveal that Talarico would be a slightly tougher (about 2% tougher) opponent for the Republican nominee than Crockett would. Paxton, as expected due to the years-long smear campaign against him, polled the weakest among the 3 GOP combatants against both Democrats; he is shown as tied against both possible Democrat nominees.


Crockett waited until the last possible day -- December 8 -- to announce that she was jumping into the Senate race. Prior to her momentous announcement there were two other Democrats already in the race: Talarico of course, along with 2024 loser Colin Allred. Allred pulled out just as Crockett pulled in, because the Democrats wished to avoid a crowded field that would end up requiring a runoff to resolve; Allred shifted to Texas' 33rd Congressional District for 2026, where he will face CD-32 incumbent Julie Johnson in a district which Democrats are guaranteed to win in November (D+22).

Prior to the recent Republican redistricting in Texas there were three dedicated ghetto districts in the Dallas area: CD-30 (Crockett), CD-32 (Johnson) and CD-33 (Marc Veasey). Veasey is retiring after 2026. The 32nd District was significantly altered to add more rural and suburban territory (and subtract some ghetto territory), making it a solidly Republican district and causing Johnson to flee for her electoral life.

Regarding these Dallas districts: somewhere along the way a deliberate lie developed, which was useful for the Crockett Senate campaign. Perhaps that lie began here, in a typically breathless article from the Gateway Pundit, where everything is always Breaking! Bombshell! Pow! Zap! (Just like the old Batman TV series!).

The article linked above is from January 6 and pertains to the new GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas which was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court a month earlier. The effects of that plan were well-known long before January (or even December) but the folks at Gateway Pundit apparently didn't bother to examine the plan at all. Instead, they posted the following falsehood; the big lie is highlighted:

  • The redistricting plan consolidates Democrat-heavy urban districts and redraws lines that previously insulated left-wing incumbents. Among those affected are Crockett and Democrat Rep. Al Green, whose districts were effectively dismantled. [Crockett's] once-safe seat is now a battleground, forcing her to abandon ship and launch a desperate bid for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. In a profanity-laced rant on video, Crockett spewed her bile. She accused President Trump, Republican governors, and state legislatures of "rigging the system" before directing an explicit vulgarity at the nation's highest court.

The only morsel of truth in that quote concerns Democrat Al Green, who is as much of an unhinged racist as Crockett. Green's district, CD-9, actually was "dismantled" and will be easily won by Republicans this fall. Green will survive, however. He is bouncing over to CD-18, which is the ghetto-est district in the Houston area. That district has had no incumbent since Sylvester Turner (D) died in 2025, but it will get one in two weeks when a special election is held. Regardless of which newcomer wins in January, Green will still retain an enormous advantage heading into the March primary in CD-18.

CD-9 is gone as far as Democrat chances of victory are concerned, but the indisputable fact is that CD-30 -- Crockett's current district -- not only was not "effectively dismantled" in the new 2026 map, it is practically identical, both geographically and politically, to what it was in 2022 and 2024.

The big lie is designed to inspire Crockett's hate-filled minions, and give the utterly false impression that Texas Republicans fear this moonbat to such an enormous extent that they would obliterate her district and leave her politically homeless. "But she'll outsmart them, all right! Our hero will turn Texas' new racist Republican gerrymander to her advantage, leave the House and march right over to the Senate! Then they'll be sorry they ever messed with her!"


Click here: Texas Congressional District 30 Demographics, Election Results and History

CD-30 was first created in 1992, specifically to elect state Senator Eddie Bernice Johnson -- who just happened to be the chairman of the state's redistricting committee that year. The inaugural version of CD-30 was only 30% White, the district being deliberately designed to elect a black Democrat such as Johnson. The White percentage has decreased steadily with subsequent redistrictings.

Johnson was elected to 15 terms in Congress, from that same district (with occasional subtle alterations) which has always covered much of central Dallas and the southern portion of Dallas County. As of 2022, the district was 18% White, 40% black and 36% Hispanic. Johnson often received 80% or more of the vote and even broke 90% three times in her perfectly safe (politically, that is) district. Johnson retired in 2022.

Crockett, whose main qualifications for federal office are that she once claimed to be the victim of a "hate crime", and she was one of the "Chicken D's" (2021 version) in the Texas legislature who fled the state in order to thwart Republican efforts to pass a bill which would bolster the integrity of elections in Texas and make Democrat vote fraud more difficult. The flight of the Chicken D's landed in Washington, D.C., amidst significant media adulation. Nobody ran faster at that time to get in front of the TV cameras than Jasmine Crockett, and she has been a master of self-publicity and a media darling ever since.


Texas CD-30, as configured in 2024

When Johnson retired from Congress, Crockett lined up with 8 other Democrats to see who would be selected to replace the elderly incumbent. Although former congressional staffer Jane Hamilton had much of the establishment support, Crockett won the primary easily and almost avoided a runoff. She won the 2022 general election without breaking a sweat, and then had no serious opposition of any kind -- Democrat or Republican -- in 2024. Despite being in only her second term in Congress, some may assume (based on the enormous amount of attention and adoration she receives from the liberal media) that Crockett is among the Democrat party leadership in the House, but she is not. She's simply a back-bencher with a voting record that is just about 100% liberal.


Metroplex-area congressional districts (including CD-30), as configured for 2026
Source: Dave's Redstricting

The version of CD-30 in which Crockett has won twice is rated by Charlie Cook as D+25. We call it D+27. In either case, it's well within "landslide Democrat" territory, just as it was during the (Eddie Bernice) Johnson Administration. Because Republican redistricters sought to flip CD-32 from D to R -- which they did; formerly D+14, now R+6 -- they increased the number of Democrats in adjacent districts such as CD-30 and CD-33. If Crockett had decided to remain in CD-30, she would have been running in a D+28 district and no other Democrat would have dared oppose her in the primary.

In short, despite her lie Crockett was not "forced" in any way to abandon her still-safe House seat and run for the Senate this year. It's just that her ego and campaign bank account are both too large for another mere House race at this point. The House is not without benefits for her: she is the lowest-ranked Democrat on the important House Judiciary Committee yet has been gifted the Ranking Member position on its Oversight Subcommittee. It's not much, but it's something. Despite her lack of experience, Crockett has also been named Vice Ranking Member of the full Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

If she had opted to run for re-election to the House this year, and if Democrats pick up the tiny number of seats they need to seize control for 2027, Crockett would certainly have advanced in her committees -- possibly all the way to the top of one of them. But the lure of a higher-profile office and the power she covets were too great for Crockett to pass up.

Some lunatics are already boosting her for Vice President in 2028. After she loses in 2026, it remains to be seen whether Crockett will give up her safe seat on "The View" to accept the Democrat VP slot.

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2026 Texas Senate Crockett's big lie