RightDataUSA

Demographics and Elections Commentary

12/19/2023: [Georgia] Redistricting special session likely to boost Democrats [Capitol Beat]


Photo credit: wabe.org

The linked article was published in late November by the self-proclaimed "unbiased" website "Capitol Beat" which covers Georgia politics from an exclusively left-wing perspective. It concerns how that state's legislature is going to cope with the recent ruling of an Obama judge which demands the redrawing of district maps at all levels (state House, state Senate, and Congress) to elect Democrats and exterminate Republicans.

This came in response to a lawsuit against the state of Georgia, naming squishy Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger as the defendant and kooky racist organizations such as the ACLU and the Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity (yes, really) as plaintiffs.

Judge Steve Jones "ordered the legislature to redraw the 2021 congressional and legislative maps. The lengthy 516-page ruling specifically instructed lawmakers to add one Black majority congressional district, two more Black majority Georgia Senate districts, and five additional state House seats."

The article goes on to speculate gleefully about which congressional Republican (Rich McCormick or Barry Loudermilk) will be the one to be purged from Congress and replaced by a racist Democrat. A liberal political science professor from the University of Georgia could hardly conceal his delight as he considered the delicious prospect of the GOP-controlled legislature having the grim task of deciding "which Republicans are going to walk the plank."

ACLU lawyer Ari Savitzky issued the typical boilerplate leftist-racist drivel about how this ruling would result in "a level playing field [for blacks] and progress from the past". Oy, vey.

The state of Georgia appealed the judge's ruling but significantly did not bother to seek a stay of the order. Which meant that whatever Democrat gerrymanders occur as "remedies" in this case will be accepted by the Republican Governor, Secretary of State and legislature without a peep: just bend over and take it.

If that's not the official GOP motto, it ought to be.

At the heart of rulings such as this one and similar rulings which will cost Republicans seats in Congress in Alabama and Louisiana (and probably more states to come) are the twin racist assumptions that Whites are not fit -- at least not White Republicans -- to represent black constituents; and that in order for blacks to be elected to Congress (or to a state legislature) special districts must be created with black majorities because, unless the deck is stacked in their favor, these segregationist Democrats couldn't get elected.

As to exactly how many of these special districts must be created in a state, the answer is that the number of districts must match the proportion of blacks in the state. For example, if a state is 25% black then 25% of the districts must favor black candidates (specifically, black Democrat candidates).

That monkey-math doesn't compute in the case of the Georgia congressional delegation, however, because the playing field is already more than "level".

The state of Georgia has 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The state of Georgia is, as of the 2021 Census estimates, 32% black. Thirty-two percent of 14 is 4.48, which means that the racists demand that blacks [Democrats] hold 4.48 of those 14 seats.

They already hold FIVE of the 14 seats, and the obvious intent of this Obama judge is that they get a SIXTH seat (see bolded text above).

We'll find out very soon if this holds up in judge Steve Jones' court of "law" (don't hold your breath), but for now the Republicans in the Georgia legislature have shockingly stuck to their guns and come up with a map which has exactly as many black-majority congressional districts (5, not 6) as those bigots are allegedly entitled to.

The primary focus is on the current 7th Congressional District (CD-7), which has an ultra-liberal black Democrat incumbent (who defeated an ultra-liberal White Democrat incumbent in 2022) but up to now CD-7 did not have the requisite black majority even though Whites comprised only 30% of the voters.

The new map, in which the district in question is now labeled as CD-6 rather than CD-7, has rectified the situation by drawing the lines in such a way as to increase the black percentage in CD-6 all the way to approximately 50%, but did so without endangering any Republican incumbents at all. Ha ha.

Democrats are seething about this because, as is always at the heart of these matters, it's not about increasing the number of minority representatives in Congress; it's about increasing the number of Democrat representatives and reducing the number of Republicans, particularly at a time when control of Congress is so much up for grabs.

What happens next?

Tomorrow (Dec. 20) is the date which his majesty Judge Jones has set for his unilateral review of the new maps. Remember, "bend over and take it" is the GOP motto, not the Democrats'. So what the hell do you think is going to happen?

If the Democrats and their allied tyrants in black robes insist upon trying to mandate racist election outcomes, attempting to seize a number of districts over and above what even their own biased math indicates, an honest judge just might uphold the law and toss them out of court.

Now all the GOP has to do is find an honest judge to hear their upcoming appeal in this case. Good luck.



UPDATE: On December 28, Judge Jones shocked everyone and dismayed his fellow Democrats by approving the new congressional district map drawn by the Georgia legislature. Liberal crybabying commenced immediately, despite the fact that the GOP-controlled legislature fully complied with the judge's mandate to create a fifth black-majority congressional district. As noted above, five such districts out of a total of 14 exceeds the actual proportion of blacks in the state of Georgia.

So why aren't Democrats celebrating? (Scroll back a few paragraphs to find the answer.)

Look for reaction from Democrat-controlled states in the near future (New York and Wisconsin leap immediately to mind), where leftists will redouble efforts to gerrymander Republicans out of Congress because they are upset that Republicans weren't screwed any harder than they were in Georgia. Judge Jones' ruling is in no way a "win" or a gain for the GOP; it merely enables them to hold onto what they already earned.

Tags:

U.S. House Georgia State Legislature Redistricting


12/19/2023: Democrats Stage a Congressional Map-Making Coup in New York [Wall Street Journal]

Another domino falls against the probability of the GOP continuing to maintain House control after 2024. Maybe a house of cards would have been a better image for the fragile and timid Republican majority in Congress.

On December 12 the Wall Street Journal published an article which noted that a cadre of liberal Democrat judges in New York has given their party a significant opportunity to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November of 2024. They did this by green-lighting a hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymander -- a belated re-drawing of congressional district lines -- which is likely to result in the ouster of four Republicans (not to mention the already-departed George Santos) from the New York delegation.

With the GOP having only the most narrow margin to work with the House, not that it's often easy to tell that they actually have control at all, a swing of four seats from R to D is extremely important. And that's only a portion of what Democrats in black robes are doing to help their party's cause (see below).

The WSJ article notes that "The [previous] map resulted in Republicans winning 11 of 26 seats" in New York in 2022. That statement is completely wrong insofar as it implies a favorable "map" had anything whatsoever to do with Republicans overachieving and winning those 11 seats.

In 2020 Democrats won 19 out of 27 congressional districts in New York. The map which was used in 2022 was even better for them, favoring Democrats in 19 or 20 out of 26 seats. The GOP merely got lucky in 2022 and won nearly every close race in marginal D+ districts (CD-3, CD-4, CD-17, CD-19, CD-22).

Even with no new Democrat gerrymander, they were highly likely to lose most of those next year anyway. The bloodbath will commence next February with the special election in CD-3, where Santos was ousted by his liberal RINO colleagues such as his next-door "neighbor" in CD-4, Anthony D'Esposito, who is the most likely of all the remaining NY Republican freshmen to get his ass kicked next November. But the Rats ain't taking any chances of more fluke GOP wins and are going to rig the game to pick up numerous House seats in NY next year.



You may wonder why Republicans normally do not bother to seek redress from the courts when they are screwed by Democrats in redistricting. Here's an example of what happens when they try:

In November of 2020 Democrats vowed to get revenge on GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in New Mexico because she had the audacity to defeat a Democrat in a House race that year, and they got their vengeance by redistricting her out of the House; Herrell narrowly lost in 2022 in a district which was substantially altered from the one in which she had prevailed in 2020. In late November of 2023, the 100% Democrat New Mexico Supreme Court unsurpisingly ruled that the partisan gerrymander which the Democrats in the NM legislature created was 100% legal despite the fact that the NM state Constitution explicitly forbids such spiteful partisan gerrymanders.

In cases like these, Democrat judges are all about upholding the party -- as opposed to upholding the law. When a law unfavorable to Democrats exists, they simply ignore it; when no law favorable to Democrats exists, they simply "legislate from the bench" and invent one out of thin air as was done in North Carolina in 2022.



Because the House landscape will probably be constantly undergoing changes between now and next November, we will periodically publish an updated scorecard to show how the GOP majority is being eroded by Democrat gerrymanders.

New districting maps mandated by racist Democrat judges will cost Republicans one U.S. House seat next year in each of Alabama and Louisiana, and they are also trying to gerrymander Georgia (+1 for the Rats), South Carolina (also +1), and Tennessee (ditto) along similar racist lines. They will try for +2 in Wisconsin by insisting that Republicans were not sufficiently screwed by the Democrat-drawn map which was used in 2022. And don't rule out Democrat shenanigans in Florida, similar to what occurred in that state during the previous decade.

In Alabama, judges have eliminated a White (Republican) district from the face of the earth and replaced it with one which must elect a black Democrat, or else. The GOP has recruited a good candidate who possesses the required melanin content (former University of Alabama and NFL defensive lineman Wallace Gilberry) but he is hardly likely to prevail in the new ghettofied version of CD-2 and he is just as unlikely to get much in the way of help from the national Republican party, which knows quite well how to "take the L" gracefully.

Republicans are clinging desperately to the hope that they will offset some of these disasters by going +3 or so under a new North Carolina map that might be installed to replace the one which was illegally mandated by Democrat judges on the NC Supreme Court in 2022. But don't count on that new NC map being used in 2024 just yet. All it takes is one partisan liberal judge somewhere to put a stop to it.



Liberals are swinging for the fences as well in Republican strongholds such as Kentucky, Arkansas and Utah, where they hope to locate some compliant black-robed tyrants who will put partisan election outcomes above the law. When it comes to redistricting, the Democrat motto is "sue everywhere!"; the GOP leadership grumbles a little but then bends over as they usually do.

In Utah, where an independent commission created the map which was used in 2022, Democrats are whining (and, of course, suing) because they claim that the Democrat mecca of Salt Lake City was purposely split up in order to dilute the concentration of leftists in any one congressional district. The extremely partisan League of Women Voters was offended by the map the independent commission created, and has taken up the Democrat cause as is customary for that "nonpartisan" (LOL) organization.

To see something quite similar you need only to look slightly to the west of Utah where, in Nevada, the Democrat legislature carved up the city of Las Vegas in order to dilute Republican strength in each of the three districts in which Las Vegas lies. We're patiently waiting for the League of Hysterical Harpies to discover this particular injustice and file suit accordingly on behalf of the GOP.

Tags:

U.S. House Redistricting New York Gerrymander New Mexico


12/11/2023: [Montana] Rep. Matt Rosendale Throws Cold Water on Efforts to Impeach Joe Biden [Breitbart]


Photo credit: Matt Rosendale

Reacting only to the headline as opposed to what Rosendale actually said, the simple-minded are going to interpret this announcement as "Matt Rosendale thinks Joe Biden shouldn't be impeached!!!!"

However, what Rosendale actually said was this:

    "I do not believe that you're probably going to be able to get an impeachment, a removal, of President Biden," Rosendale told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business in late November.

    "But I do think that if our Department of Justice acted in a legitimate manner that there's enough facts that are already laid out there on the table because of all the great work that James Comer has done that we can see that the Biden crime family has major problems. And I think the Department of Justice should be picking up a lot of this and starting to make charges and prosecutions"


That's clearly accurate -- the Democrat-RINO Senate will obviously never consent to "removal" of a Democrat President from office. Rosendale is also accurate in pointing out the liberal bias of the Department of So-Called Justice in the matter of the Biden family crimes.

Even so, Rosendale allowing himself to be chosen as point man for this unsurprising revelation that the House GOP utterly lacks the balls to do anything "controversial" in an election year, was not the smartest move for his career if he has any designs on moving up from the House to the Senate.

Real Republicans (i.e. conservatives) have been waiting for Rosendale to enter the Senate race against quite vulnerable liberal Democrat Jon Tester; the GOP establishment squishes have desperately been trying to discourage Rosendale precisely because he is a conservative, and the GOPe much prefers one of their own squishy kind to run instead.

Now it's even more likely that Rosendale's going to turtle, and slink away from any possibility of running for the Senate next year. That leaves the field for the GOP nomination pretty much clear for squishy businessguy Tim Sheehy, who is being boosted by Mitch McConnell, Steve Daines and other establishment wimps.

Furthermore, the pro-abortionists have proclaimed their intention to influence the 2024 elections in Montana by submitting a ballot initiative (apparently not yet approved, though) that would alter the Montana state constitution and try to build on abortionist ballot success in other supposedly "red" states like Ohio, Kansas & Kentucky.

These initiatives have less to do with abortion per se and far more to do with stimulating Democrat turnout in order to influence other items on the ballot. In the case of Montana, the idea is to save the incumbent pinko Senator and perhaps also affect the outcome of the race in the marginal congressional district currently held by moderate Republican Ryan Zinke, who won in 2022 with less than 50% of the vote. That sort of narrow outcome has been habitual for Tester as well, showing why he needs extra assistance (usually the tactical presence of a "Libertarian" candidate suffices to draw votes away from the Republican) to try to eke out a 4th Senate term in 2024.

Tags:

Montana 2024 Senate Matt Rosendale Impeach Biden Jon Tester Tim Sheehy


12/11/2023: It's a "Special" Time of Year [RightDataUSA]


Photo credit: AP

In 2024, mainly early in the year, a quartet of special elections will be held to fill four U.S. House vacancies which have already occurred or are upcoming. Cowardly Republicans expelled their conservative colleague George Santos (R-NY) on December 1, and three other Representatives have announced their pending retirements: Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH) and Kevin McCarthy (Squish-CA).

The special election to replace Santos was hastily called -- it will take place on February 13 -- by Democrats who rightfully anticipate an easy pickup of a House seat that will reduce the margin of GOP control to 7 seats (221-214). The remaining three special elections, as yet unscheduled, are unlikely to alter the balance of power any further.

Santos' election in 2022, like those of most other NY freshmen that year, was a fluke. Santos' district (NY-3) is a Democrat district and not even particularly marginal; Rats outnumber Republicans by over 10% and that fact will be apparent both in the special election and in November, 2024. Republicans normally come closer than 10% in most elections in NY-3, which means that more Democrats than Republicans cross party lines and/or "independents" break slightly more to the right than the left, however all indications point in the direction of an uphill climb for the GOP to win anything here.

Particularly the February special election, where Rat voters and the Rat party organization will be highly motivated while the RNC as usual will likely sit on its hands and blame Santos for ruining the district -- when it simply reverts to what it has always been in recent years. In special elections, low voter turnout is the norm and motivation/organization is everything.

Some have suggested that the series of fluke GOP House wins in New York in 2022 was a coattail effect from having a popular GOP nominee for Governor (Lee Zeldin was not quite popular enough, unfortunately) at the top of the ticket. Nothing like that is going to happen again in NY in 2024, and after the Democrats take the NY-3 special election barring a major upset, they will be significantly favored to hold it next November.

Anthony D'Esposito, the liberal "Republican" Santos-backstabber from the next-door 4th district in New York will (along wth some other GOP House members from New York) probably be ousted in 2024 too, but count on him running hysterically to the left even more so than he already is over the next several months in his frantic effort to keep his cushy job.



As to the other special elections, the Republicans have zero chance for a pickup in Higgins' district which includes the ghetto area of the city of Buffalo, however the GOP should easily hold the other two soon-to-be-vacant seats in California and Ohio.

Well, maybe California. Squish McCarthy's district (CA-20) is the most Republican in the entire state, so it's not a question of a Democrat winning here unless that Democrat puts an "R" after his name (see below) and runs on the GOP ticket. The question, at this moment anyway, is whether there will even be a special election. With the outcome a foregone conclusion, the Democrats are not anxious to send a new Republican to Congress, particularly one who may not be as accommodating as McCarthy was.

The Republicans, bless their hearts, are making plans as if there will be an election early next year and have already formed the customary Circular Firing Squad. The establishment is specifically aiming their fire at MAGA conservative state Senator Shannon Grove, who was the first to announce her candidacy for the opening in CA-20 [Update: After "prayerful considerations and thoughtful discussions" with her family, i.e. after the CAGOP explained to her that conservatives need not apply, Grove has withdrawn from the race.]. A couple of McCarthy-type moderate state legislators are also expected to jump into the race. The filing deadline is only a couple of days away, so we'll know soon.

In Ohio, Rep. Bill Johnson is resigning from Congress sometime before March in order to become President of Youngstown State University, much to the chagrin of the snowflakes at that institution and the ones in the local media. More information on that special election will come later.

Tags:

2024 Special election George Santos Kevin McCarthy Bill Johnson New York California Ohio


11/8/2023: Election 2023 -- It Wasn't ALL Bad News [RightDataUSA]

Yesterday's outcomes were almost entirely predictable yet were considered disappointing by the good people of America -- the same phenomenon as occurred in 2022 when the mis-named "Red Wave" never materialized and even positive developments were considered to be crushing defeats because those positive outcomes did not occur on the massive scale which many people ridiculously expected.

Of course there were lots of adverse outcomes yesterday to be gloomy about:

In Kentucky, GOP gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron was heavily outspent and allowed his opponents (Governor Andy Beshear and the liberal-Democrat media) to define him, primarily in a manner which made Cameron unpalatable to the rabid single-issue pro-abortionists of the suburbs. Being outspent and being ceaselessly under attack by the media have always been twin burdens for Republican campaigns, which normally leaves the GOP candidate two options:

1. Spend all of the time (and money) reacting and playing defense instead of attacking and playing offense, or

2. Lay down and give up entirely.

Cameron's 2023 campaign seems to have selected the latter option. The Kentucky election outcomes exactly mirrored 2019 as anticipated, with the Republicans sweeping every one of the other statewide elections including the important Attorney General office.

Back to the bad news, though there's really nothing here which should be considered surprising:

Some disgusting Democrats including one in-your-face transvestite won spots in the Virginia legislature as the Rats expanded their hold on the Senate (as expected) while also seizing control of the House (that was thought to be a tossup). Your political career was nice while it lasted, Governor Youngkin. Actually, Youngkin may have a chance (a small chance) of ousting radical leftist Timmy Kaine from the Senate in 2024 if Youngkin chooses to enter that race. Some Republican should.

New Jersey was another disappointment with the GOP expecting gains but getting zilch in the state Senate, and actually losing seats in the state Assembly. They're still counting votes, so the Republicans may not be done losing yet.

An abortioNazi won the Pennsylvania Supreme Court election, keeping the PA Democrat Supreme Court at a 5-2 partisan breakdown.

Finally, the solid "red" state of Ohio was bamboozled into voting for unlimited abortion. Whether most voters knew it or not, they simultaneously opted to bypass parental consent for their underage daughters to receive abortions. The new law also bypasses parents when young children are brainwashed by adult perverts (such as schoolteacher-groomers and the liberal media) regarding how wonderful it would be for the children to mutilate themselves via sex change operations. Read the fine print next time, Ohioans.



Now on the positive side, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves (R squish) defeated a faux-moderate Democrat who claimed to be kin to the beloved peanut-butter-and-banana sandwich eater, Elvis Presley. Apparently that's worth some votes in Mississippi. Republicans also increased their already-substantial majorities in the state House and Senate and swept all statewide offices.

In Suffolk County, New York (Long Island) the GOP cruised to a "landslide" 56% victory in the race for County Executive, which means that Republicans now hold 100% of the important offices on Long Island including the area's four seats in Congress (for one more year). GOP gains in 2021 on Long Island foreshadowed congressional success here in 2022; this win in 2023, unfortunately, will very likely not mean anything as far as GOP chances of success on Long Island in 2024.



Another race which was perhaps not of national import, but was something we touched on previously:

A significant upset occurred in a local race in Allegheny County, PA (Pittsburgh) where long-term incumbent Democrat Stephen Zappala -- now running as a Republican -- defeated ultra-liberal Soros stooge Matt Dugan for District Attorney. Pending any post-election shenanigans by Democrat vote-counters, anyway. Results in Pennsylvania very often change significantly after election night as more mail-in ballots are fabricated received.

This happy result in the D.A. contest took place even as Democrats were sweeping the rest of the county offices, as always, though the race for County Executive was closer than usual. A moonbat Democrat won by barely 2% in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

The Rats, who have re-elected Mr. Zappala every 4 years since he first took office in the late 1990s, have suddenly discovered some issues with him, now that he is a Republican albeit in name only. They tried the always-popular Race Card, accusing Zappala of desiring to bypass the black (Democrat, obviously) mayor of Pittsburgh and take control of the police department; they also falsely accused him of going easier on White criminals than black ones.

The Dugan campaign, which needless to say outspent Zappala exponentially, also dredged up a tangentially abortion-related case from over 15 years ago in which Zappala's office charged a woman who'd had a miscarriage with a crime because she then kept the fetus in a freezer. The resurrection of this story was meant to, and did, trigger the pro-abortionists who don't wish to suffer any consequences regarding their own dead fetuses.

Despite the massive Soros-funding advantage for the Democrat woketard, Zappala appears to have prevailed yesterday 51.6% to 48.4% with an estimated 30% of Zappala's support coming from Democrats.



When we referenced this election and the possibility of a miracle upset previously, the hypothesis was that perhaps blue-collar moderate Democrats would cross over to assist Zappala. In light of recent events in Gaza and the unwavering Hamas terrorist support from the national Democrat party -- including their local racist Congresswoman -- we surmised that Allegheny County Jews, particularly in the Squirrel Hill area of Pittsburgh, might be sufficiently appalled to do something other than vote straight-ticket D for a change, even though yesterday's elections had nothing to do with Israel.

So what did those voters do?

Squirrel Hill is contained within the Fourteenth Ward of the city of Pittsburgh. For some context, in 2020 that area voted soundly against President Trump by a margin of 70% -- it was 84% for Biden, 14% for Trump. In 2016, that region's love for Hillary and hatred of Trump was expressed in nearly identical proportions (83% Hillary, 14% Trump).

Yesterday the vast majority of Squirrel Hill voters again showed themselves to be atheistic, secular, ultra-liberal and self-loathing -- they are not concerned one whit about Israel as long as Netanyahu is in charge -- by demonstrating their allegiance to the Democrat party. But not by quite the normal amount.

There was approximately an 11-point swing to the right in the Fourteenth Ward, with Dugan getting 74% of the vote to Zappala's 26%. Eleven points may not sound like a lot, but in this area is it significant. In terms of raw votes, Zappala got at least 1,500 more votes in the Fourteenth Ward than he would have if the usual percentages had applied. That number by itself did not alter the outcome of this election, however it was a welcome (though almost certainly temporary) development.

Tags:

2023 Kentucky Missisippi New Jersey Virginia Abortionist Ohio Daniel Cameron Pittsburgh


11/2/2023: Yesterday's Developments in Congress [RightDataUSA]


Photo credit: The Hill

On November 1, there were two roll-call votes in the House concerning possible disciplinary actions against two individual members, and another two Republican representatives announced that they would not be running for re-election in 2024.

In the first vote, Hamas-supporting Muslim Democrat Rashida Tlaib of Detroit Ghetto, Michigan was to be mildly censured for "antisemitic activity, sympathizing with terrorist organizations, and leading an insurrection at the United States Capitol Complex". However this vote to censure failed by the count of 186 to 222.

All Democrats voted in complete lockstep as they always do, except when a few members are allowed to stray for tactical reasons (an example of that is coming up in a few paragraphs), but 23 Republicans defended the Democrat terrorist-lover and another 11 GOP cowards chose to avoid voting although they were present at the time of the vote. It's not as if Ms. Tlaib would be hurt at all if she had been censured -- and her participation in an actual insurrection, like most crimes committed by Democrat politicians, is a resumé-enhancer.



Earlier in the day, GOP representatives Kay Granger of Texas and Ken Buck of Colorado revealed that they will retire from Congress at the end of the current term.

Granger was first elected to her suburban Metroplex district in 1996, and Democrats have not seriously challenged her since 1998. The district has been moved politically to the right over the years through redistricting (though it was shifted back towards the left this time around), which also tends to discourage challenges. The GOP should easily be able to hold this seat next November. The same applies to Ken Buck's Colorado district, which favors GOP candidates slightly more than Granger's district.

Buck is a perfect example of why you cannot evaluate a Republican's conservatism simply by looking at his voting record. Buck's voting record in Congress is highly conservative, or at least it was through 2022; he voted the right way nearly 100% of the time. However Buck is also a flake, flitting all over the place in the past and especially lately. Buck did the right thing by being one of the tiny number of GOP insurgents who ousted Squish McCarthy as Speaker of the House. However....

Back in July he used his allotted time during the Republicans' grilling of quisling Christopher Wray to heap praise (instead of well-deserved derision) on the Trump-hating FBI director and his organization, even as the FBI was busy protecting the Biden Crime Family from any consequences of their crimes. In recent days, Buck led the revolt against conservative Jim Jordan in order to prevent him from replacing McCarthy as Speaker. Buck has made no secret of his desire to join the most liberal of all liberal media outlets (CNN) as a GOP-bashing commentator when his days "serving the public" are over.

But at least he votes the correct way and that's sufficient, right?

Wrong.

And good riddance.



The second vote yesterday was to potentially expel -- not merely censure -- non-terrorist Republican George Santos of New York. Ever since being elected in 2022, Santos has been accused of lying about his past, though at least Santos never lied by claiming to have "served' in the Vietnam War, like a certain Democrat Senator from Connecticut has done with impunity. Santos is being persecuted, a la Trump, by the always impartial and non-partisan "lawfare" system in New York state.

This resolution to expel Santos (the second one he has faced this year) was brought by five of his Republican colleagues from New York, all of whom are liberal freshmen (Santos is the only conservative among the newest members of the NY delegation) and all of whom are, not surprisingly, totally gutless. Apparently these invertebrates fear being labeled as guilty by assocation with Santos when they run for re-election next year. Therefore they would prefer to be rid of him prior to that time.

One wonders why Michigan Democrats are not equally fearful of guilt-by-assocation with their racist Muslim colleague, Rashida Tlaib. Do simps like Brandon Williams, Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro -- running in New York districts many miles away from the one Santos represents -- really need to be so terrified of some liberal media reporter challenging them about another member of their party?

Although 24 of his fellow GOP-ers did vote to expel Santos yesterday, 31 Democrats tactically came to his rescue, and the motion for expulsion failed. What great human beings those 31 Democrats are, putting aside their partisan differences to aid an embattled Republican! Right?

Hardly.

The list of Santos' newly-minted supporters from across the aisle contains some of the most hard-core racists in the Democrat party. The Democrats merely want Santos to remain in Congress -- as a whipping boy for themselves and as an albatross for Republicans -- because they (like the five New York cowards) believe he will be a campaign issue in 2024. Those Santos haters are likely to be disappointed.

Although Santos has not yet announced that he isn't running in 2024, it's a fact that he won't be. Santos has zero chance of being re-elected, and probably has the lowest amount of campaign cash-on-hand of any incumbent Republican. He's finished.

Even without Santos in the race there's still a greater than 50% probability that the seat flips anyway in 2024 because his win was perhaps the greatest fluke outcome among House elections in 2022. And that prediction for 2024 comes even without considering the probable implementation of a hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymander which will eradicate many House Republicans in New York. There's a ton of money in the race already in Santos' district -- on both sides -- several million dollars as compared to Santos' pittance, and almost a dozen financially-viable candidates.

Tags:

U.S. House George Santos Expulsion Rashida Tlaib Actual Insurrection Kay Granger Ken Buck


10/28/2023: Masks Off: Alarming New Gallup Poll Blows Growing Democrat Schism Over the Israel Issue Wide Open [Redstate]


Photo credit: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Fifteen Democrats went on record as failing to support Israel after the Hamas attacks, when asked to vote on a resolution comdemning those attacks. The 9 who voted against the resolution are:

Rep. Jamaal "Fire Chief" Bowman of New York
Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri
Rep. Andre Carson of Indiana
Rep. Al Green of Texas
Rep. Summer Lee of Pennsylvania
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York
Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota
Rep. Delia Ramirez of Illinois
Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan

These 6 voted "present", thinking they could escape scrutiny:

Rep. Greg Casar of Texas
Rep. Joaquin Castro of Texas
Rep. Chuy Garcia of Illinois
Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington
Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts
Rep. Nydia Velazquez of New York

All but one of these racists represent heavily-Democrat ghetto or barrio districts, and their chances for re-election are not endangered (perhaps they are even enhanced) by this vote.

The exception: freshman Hamas supporter Summer Lee in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district. While that district does include the city of Pittsburgh and a few of its more reprehensible suburbs such as Duquesne, Homestead and Braddock, it also includes quite a bit of good suburban areas, particularly those in the western portion of Westmoreland County, where Trump won by nearly 30 points in 2020. The district is rated as D+8 because the bad areas outvote the respectable ones.

The district contains a significant number of Jews, in the Squirrel Hill section of Pittsburgh and elsewhere. When Lee comes up for re-election in 2024, it will be interesting to see if the Jews in CD-12 side with Israel or whether they are the secular, atheistic, ultra-liberal types who couldn't care less about their ancestral homeland and care only about voting straight-ticket Democrat as usual.

Ms. Lee won the Democrat primary in 2022 only by a very small margin over an ultra-liberal (but not completely psychotic, like herself) Jewish candidate; she may not be so lucky in 2024 but whoever wins that primary will very likely win the general election too.

A year from now this might all be old news, but for now it's quite current and a good "proxy" for her chances in 2024 is coming up in a few days: the 2023 Allegheny County district attorney election, in which long-term Democrat Steven Zappala was defeated in the Rat primary by a mega-woke nutjob. Zappala is now on the ballot as a Republican because the GOP naturally didn't bother to run anyone in such a normally lost-cause as this one (Zappala won via write-in votes).

If Zappala can somehow pull off a miracle win in a hardcore Democrat bastion like Allegheny County with all he'd have to overcome (Democrat fraud too, if it's close enough to warrant that), it would be a serious wake-up call to radical, racist Democrats like Lee. If Zappala gets the vast majority of Republican votes, splits the "independents" and takes a percentage of the Democrat vote anywhere close to what he received in the primary (that's going to be the toughest part) this election may be much closer than expected.

Tags:

Israel Hamas Democrat Terrorists U.S. House Pennsylvania Pittsburgh


10/25/2023: North Carolina Republicans Propose Harshest Gerrymander Yet [Elections Daily]


Photo credit: elections-daily.com

Looks like the NCGOP is trying for a home run here, and hopefully will get it. If the partisan Democrat NC Supreme Court had not invented a "law" and overturned the original GOP map which was submitted a couple of years ago, Republicans would have won 9 or maybe 10 at most (out of 14) seats in Congress. Now, ironically, they may have a chance to do even better (11-3). Ha ha.

The left-wing author of the linked article is outraged, naturally, yet was strangely silent about hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymanders in the recent past (Illinois, Pennsylvania, etc.) and will be gleeful about ones which are probably coming up in the near future (New York, Wisconsin, etc.).

If the Republicans can pick up 3 seats or so in North Carolina, that reduces the probability of election-denying Brooklyn homeboy Hakeem Jeffries wielding the Speaker's gavel come 2025. It probably doesn't reduce that probability enough, however. Even if "re-redistricting" between now and the 2024 elections is 100% neutral, the number of truly vulnerable Republican representatives exceeds the similar number for Democrats as things stand now.

If a minor miracle or 2 takes place in the 2024 Senate elections, the outcome could well be that the GOP loses the House but gains nominal control of the Senate.

Don't be too fast to count those North Carolina chickens, though. Lawsuits have surely been prepared in anticipation of this day, and whether those suits have any merit or not is irrelevant -- the idea, at a minimum, is to delay the implementation of this "harsh gerrymander" past 2024, so don't be surprised if that's exactly what happens.



First tactic will be to use the Alabama strategy and insist that because North Carolina is 21% black then they are "entitled" to 3 out of 14 districts on that basis.

NC is also 10% Hispanic, which could mean another entitlement of one district. Both of those racist factors would combine to limit the GOP to at most 10 out of 14 seats. Which is still much better than the 7 they hold now.

Another tactic they'll use is that the filing deadline for 2024 is coming up soon, as if that deadline can't be changed, and claim that it's "too late" now to implement a new map. That's the trick the Rats tried in 2022 in New York when they (temporarily) didn't get their way. It didn't work then, but who knows if it will now?

Tags:

North Carolina Redistricting U.S. House


9/20/2023: Ratings Update: Ohio Congressional Races Solidify as Maps Approved for Second Term [Elections Daily]

Good news (presumably) out of the Buckeye State as regards the U.S. House districts which will be used in 2024, though by a Democrat-friendly state law they will still be invalidated before the 2026 elections. The 2024 districts will be the same ones which were used in 2022, which may cause one to wonder why this is considered to be good news seeing as how Democrats were the ones who benefited in '22. More on that below, but first, some history:

Years ago, redistricting was almost exclusively a once-a-decade thing which took place after each decennial Census. District lines were redrawn to take effect in years ending in '2' and those lines normally remained unaltered until the next Census.

Those days are long gone.

Following the "Gingrich Revolution" of 1994, in which Republicans not only regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, the party also began making significant inroads at the state legislative level (especially in the South), which by 2000 meant that the GOP had control of the redistricting process in many states which Democrats had controlled forever.

Democrat gerrymanders had played a huge role in their eternal command of the U.S. House (and many state legislatures) and they were not about to let that go without a fight. When Democrats were suddenly no longer winning the game they had worked so hard to rig in the past, they simply changed the rules to try to rig things again in their favor.

As a result, legislatures (which may now be controlled by eeevil Republicans) are bypassed whenever possible, and the process of redrawing the lines is shunted off to liberal judges or "non-partisan" commissions. Furthermore, the process is no longer limited to taking place once per decade; it ends only when Democrats say it ends. Therefore "re-redistricting" has become an increasingly common event.

Just since 2022, Democrats have sued or otherwise conspired to alter legal GOP-held House districts in several states including, but possibly not limited to: Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, New York and Wisconsin. Ohio, until a couple of weeks ago, was also on the list.

According to the linked article, Ohio Democrats have withdrawn their lawsuit. The author hypothesizes that the reason for the sudden change of heart was that liberals feared the GOP legislature creating an even better map for their party. Often, when a court invalidates a map, it has some liberal group draw the map (e.g. in Pennsylvania) and doesn't give the Republicans another chance at it.

It's hard to tell what all the fear would be about in this case. When a court threw out a partisan Democrat gerrymander in Maryland prior to the 2022 elections (the first time a Democrat plan had been quashed in many years, maybe ever) it allowed the leftist legislature to redraw the map -- which it did, resulting in only a slight change in one district, which the Democrats then won anyway.

The same thing happened in Ohio too, when the allegedly "Republican" state Supreme Court tossed the original 2022 map and gave the Republicans another chance. At which point the Republicans proceeded to shoot themselves in the foot; they aren't called the Stupid Party for nothing. They deliberately sacrificed Republican Congressman Steve Chabot by creating a Cincinnati ghetto district for him, which naturally he lost to a liberal Democrat. The GOP was supposed to offset this with a pickup or two elsewhere in the state, but they blew it.

The Cincy district (CD-1) is rated as D+1 or D+2 -- it contains the good area of Warren County in addition to the bad parts of the city. So it's winnable but not a likely pickup.

CD-9 (Toledo area) is an R+ district, but the Democrats ran a typically dirty campaign against the Republican candidate on behalf of sweet, old grandmotherly (LOL) incumbent Marcy Kaptur, a liberal who has been in office since approximately the Truman Administration. Nevermind merely supporting Kaptur, the Democrats spent more against J.R. Majewski than he was able to raise himself; being a conservative, the GOPe was not anxious to help him and so they didn't.

In the very marginal CD-13 (Akron) open seat, the GOP was split, with Trump endorsing former beauty queen Madison Gesiotto, who narrowly won the primary but then was defeated by Democrat Emilia Sykes (definitely not a beauty queen) in a relentlessly negative campaign from which the fractured GOP never recovered and the seat was lost.

Democrats are clearly confident of holding all 3 of these seats in 2024, hence their acceptance of the current "Republican" map and their reluctance to take a chance on changing it.

Tags:

Ohio U.S. House Redistricting Backfire


9/20/2023: Republicans Just Got Blasted in a New Hampshire Special Election Because Zero Lessons Have Been Learned [Redstate]


Photo credit: AP Photo/Charles Krupa

The Trump-haters and GOP establishment shills who run "RedState.com" have decided that Donald Trump blew it again. It happened yesterday in a tiny New Hampshire district in which a liberal Democrat defeated a MAGA Republican in a special election that most voters ignored. Trump himself likely wasn't even aware of the election, much less involved in it in any way.

The author of the article (someone called "Bonchie") believes that the results of this bellwether (LOL) election, in which approximately 0.00000001% of the U.S. electorate participated, portends certain doom for the GOP in 2024 because we haven't learned the "lesson" that conservative candidates simply cannot win anywhere. He may not be wrong about what will occur in '24, but his reasoning is quite faulty; inferring anything from an ultra-low turnout special election in a microscopic state House district (don't get confused and think this was a Congressional election) is moronic.

Well, unless it suits your agenda.

Remember in 2022 when the GOP won an actual Congressional special election in south Texas and that result -- historic though it was -- was supposed to mean "muh Red Wave" in November as opposed to being just an isolated fluke outcome which was reversed in November? How'd that wave work out?

Regarding yesterday's irrelevancy in New Hampshire, the author's hyperventilating assertion that because Governor Squish Sununu had a 22-point margin of victory last November in this district meant that it should have been a slam-dunk for Republicans is deliberately misleading. Instead of pretending that this is some "dark red" district, which it damn sure is not, if the author was interested in the truth instead of trying to induce panic, he would have pointed out that although Trump won this district in 2020.... it was by a whopping 26 votes which is less than 1 percent. And that result is much more in line with the true current political leaning of the district than what Squish got.

This is a marginal, slightly right-of-center, wimpy/moderate district at best, consisting of a couple of tiny towns in Rockingham County. That doesn't mean the GOP couldn't have won yesterday, but Itchy or Scratchy or Poochie or whatever the author's name is should drop the stupid fallacy that this was supposed to be an easy win, much less extrapolate from what a few hundred voters did in New Hampshire yesterday to nationwide calamity in 2024.

As to the quality of the GOP candidate, of course the Democrat media is going to take every opportunity to slime all Republicans who are running for office (no matter how small the office), and there's no sense in making it easier for them by exclaiming that "Jeebus told me Trump really won in 2020!!!!", something along the lines of which the GOP candidate, pastor James Guzofski, is alleged to have done here. Or by being set up for a grope date in a movie theater with the Democrat cameras running (Lauren Boebert).

In the end, what this miniscule election means for 2024 all by itself is absolutely nothing, despite the hysteria.

Tags:

New Hampshire State House election 2023


9/12/2023: [South Carolina] House Republican Nancy Mace Says 'We Will Lose Next Year' If MAGA Members Bully Moderates [Mediate]


Photo credit: The Hill

Liberal GOP crybully is welcomed onto a low-rated ultra-liberal TV network in order to bash conservatives. Any "news" story pertaining to a Republican politician which contains "During an appearance on CNN..." tells you all you need to know about that politician's credibility.

Patriotic American voters who would like to see the GOP in Congress stand for something (did you know that Republicans actually control the House of Representatives?), lament the defeatist attitude and cowardly legislative inaction by squishes such as Kevin McCarthy -- and Nancy Mace. Conservative voters believe, rightly, that after 2024 the GOP is likely to lose control of the House for those reasons.

That is very likely to happen as things stand now. Demoralized conservative voters notwithstanding, another reason for the impending loss is that Democrats are preparing to pick up several seats from the effects of belated redistricting which (in all cases except North Carolina, if redistricting there ever happens) will favor Democrats across the board.

Interestingly, one belated redistricting target of Democrat racists is.... the South Carolina district which Nancy Mace represents. Democrats decided that South Carolina's delegation In Washington ain't gots enough "people of color" (Tim Scott doesn't count since he's a Republican) and specifically they have targeted Mace's CD-1, which is Charleston and vicinity, for "reparations".

The Democrat/NAACP lawsuit is now at the Supreme Court level after some liberal federal judges took the racists' side, and it has already been proven that the GOP absolutely can NOT count on that so-called "Republican" Supreme Court to do the right thing in these cases.

Won't it be funny when a stooge like Nancy Mace gets ousted by racist liberals to whom she is closer ideologically than she is to conservatives? It's not like the GOP can afford to lose this House district -- or any district -- due to the effects of Democrat racism and a compliant Court, though something about irony being delicious regarding this turn of events comes to mind.


However:

If Mace's district is redrawn and overrun by the Charleston ghetto, do not be surprised if she jumps on her broomstick and flies to a different district (perhaps CD-7) and tries to oust the GOP incumbent there. She'll have 100% support from the GOPe, just like she did in 2022 when they helped her to fight against a solid conservative in the primary. The establishment may claim publicly that it will be neutral in a matchup of incumbents, but you can count on there not being much neutrality going on behind the scenes.

CD-7 is represented by freshman Republican Russell Fry who prevailed against Trump-hating liberal incumbent Tom Rice in the 2022 primary. Oh how the GOPe must despise Fry, and would love to save Mace and dump him simultaneously. It's worth noting that Mace already has at least 4 times the amount of cash for the 2024 election as Fry does. If they battle each other, one of those two will get a lot more $$$$ from the GOPe. It won't be Fry.

Tags:

Nancy Mace South Carolina RINO U.S. House


9/1/2023: [Montana] Rosendale holds big lead over establishment-backed Sheehy in Montana Senate race: poll [The Hill]


Photo credit: Greg Nash

Republican voters in Montana are clearly saying that the conservative alternative in the GOP primary is far more to their liking than businessman Tim Sheehy, the squish who is being pushed hard by establishment twerps like Steve Daines and Mitch McConnell.

This greatly upsets the GOPe, or at least forces them to work harder to rig the primary, because the establishment will always insist that a more liberal candidate has greater "electability" than a conservative one, and they spare no expense in fulfilling that prophecy anytime the voters defy them and select a conservative nominee instead of the officially-anointed moderate. Their backstabbing of conservatives doesn't always work, otherwise Liz Cheney would still be in office, and J.D. Vance would have lost in Ohio. But it almost always works.

Sheehy served his country with honor, runs a successful business, and I'm sure he routinely performs CPR on wounded kittens too. It's possible for him to be a great guy but still be a moderate squish -- and one who is actually less electable than conservative Matt Rosendale.

Sheehy is already facing the typical attacks from the left. You can rely on the fact that anyone who runs a business and who runs for office as a Republican will be hysterically assaulted for being an evil "millionaire" who "wants to raise YOUR taxes" and who "outsources jobs to China!" In other words, they'll claim he fits the profile of a Democrat.

These attacks don't in any way imply that Sheehy is a feared conservative; they just mean that since the GOPe simps favor him, he is very likely to be the nominee so the haters are getting an early start.

Recall that the #1 and only real "stopper" against Rosendale when he ran against Jon Tester and narrowly lost in 2018 was that he was a carpetbagger who had committed the mortal sin of not being a lifelong Montana resident. Apparently the voters -- who in 2020 elected Rosendale statewide in a high-turnout presidential election year -- have forgiven him.

Sheehy OTOH hasn't even been in Montana for 10 years yet, so by all means let's make the Rats' task even easier in 2024 by letting them use the same playbook from 2018. Sheehy is also being attacked for allegedly "lewd" and "racist" posts he made on Facebook years ago, among other things.

Of course Rosendale, if he is somehow the nominee, will be similarly attacked by the media and other Democrats just like he was in 2018, 2020 and 2022. He won the last two of those races anyway, and he has a good conservative political track record on which to run.

The difference is that, if Rosendale is the nominee, he will face not only a lack of support but actual oppostion from the squishes on his own side as well. The ones (like Daines & McConnell for example) who would rather Tester get another term & Democrats keep Senate control than risk some unwashed conservative taking that seat.



This race may be reminiscent of 2022's Senate campaign in Pennsylvania, where we were assured that Electable Dr. Oz was a much better option for the GOP than surging conservative Kathy Barnette who was criticized as inexperienced and as a loser -- even though she outperformed Donald Trump by 3 points in Pennsylvania in 2020 in the district in which she ran (CD-4); a performance which is overlooked or misunderstood by dolts who don't know how to read election results.

It's also a parallel to the 2022 gubernatorial race in Wisconsin, where a weak liberal Democrat incumbent (a la Tester in Montana) was quite vulnerable.... until the GOP primary was decided by Trump's blundering endorsement of empty-suit businessman Tim Michels (similar to Sheehy) over decently conservative former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, who had been elected statewide (similar to Rosendale) as running-mate for Governor Scott Walker and had a good record on which to run.

Yet we're told that the GOPe is so much better at picking candidates than conservative voters are. It's a lie.

Tags:

Montana Senate 2024 Matt Rosendale Tim Sheehy "Electability"


8/9/2023: Ohio Voters Reject Bid to Stunt Abortion Rights Measures [Newsmax]

First Kansas, then Kentucky, and now we can add Ohio to the list of allegedly solid "red" states which surprised Republicans by thwarting ballot measures which would do anything to even slightly reduce the prevelance of that Blessed Holy Liberal Sacrament of Abortion.

Once again, Democrats effectively motivated their voters while Republicans were complacent and took this off-year election lightly -- as they also did in April's Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, where the GOP's resounding defeat in that race has effectively handed Democrats total control of the Badger State's government.

That's a fact which will be demonstrated perhaps just a few weeks from now, when the Democrat Court reconvenes and begins trashing all current election district maps in Wisconsin and replacing them with hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymanders at the state legislative and congressional levels, to be used for 2024 and for the remainder of this decade. The plan is to cost the Republicans at least two seats in the U.S. House in 2025 and quite possibly flip both houses of the Wisconsin legislature to Democrat control.

Just as the shocking pro-abortionist victory in supposedly deep red Kansas in August of 2022 served as an indicator that there would be nothing resembling a "red wave" in November (in Kansas or just about anywhere else) despite the fever dreams of the hopium addicts which lasted all the way until election night, yesterday's result in supposedly deep red Ohio can be taken as a similar canary-in-the-coal-mine for November of 2024, when Democrat Sherrod Brown will likely cruise to another Senate win in Ohio and Republicans will have their hands full trying to get that state's 17 critical electoral votes. Ohio is not a mortal lock to go in the GOP column, and yesterday's vote highlights that fact.

In Kentucky, the same suburban soccer mommies and other whores whose pro-abortionist votes carried the day in 2022 will be instrumental in the upcoming easy re-election of pretty-boy Democrat Andy Beshear as Governor. This liberal empty suit is heavily favored as of now to prevail over a good conservative Republican opponent in three months. Hopefully the GOP will be able to retain the state row offices, which they surprisingly swept back in 2019 even as another good conservative (Matt Bevin) was being ousted from the governorship.

Back to Ohio....

Wouldn't yesterday's important election have been a nice opportunity for Republicans to implement their new favorite election tactic -- ballot harvesting -- instead of merely giving it lip service? The GOP leadership (Trump and occasionally Ronna McRomney) throws those words around because they know that GOP voters want to hear that the party is going to do something to try to compete on more equal footing against Democrat fraud efforts. Unfortunately the term "ballot harvesting" is just a handy buzzword to them and nothing more. The amount of money and level of organization required to change those words into actions are not forthcoming and will not be in place in any widespread systematic manner on the Republican side for 2024.

Tags:

Ohio Abortionist


7/24/2023: Trump's enemies pursue more and more indictments -- to ensure his 2024 nomination [NY Post]


Photo credit: AP/Charlie Neibergall

Rich Lowry, the author of the article, is what passes for a mainstream, establishment "conservative" these days, but he's right on the money with his premise here regarding the 2024 presidential election:

    Both [Democrats and Republicans] are seeking the same thing -- Trump as the Republican nominee, either so he can sweep to victory (Trump's view) or be beaten again and pay the price for his crimes (the Democrats' view). [Emphasis added, to highlight the primary objective.]

It's beyond obvious that the uniparty puppetmasters want Trump to be the presumptive GOP nominee for as long as possible, even if he doesn't quite make it to the November ballot. This includes their rigging of the opinion polls (ya know, the ones which are always claimed to be total BS except when they tell us what we wish to hear): "Pollz say Trump gonna beat Biden, this time fur shurr herp derp!!1!".

The liberal media has willingly and successfully helped Trump neuter any threat from Ron DeSantis, and have helped to enhance Trump's appeal to his base -- and only to that base -- which will sweep him to glorious primary victories but is woefully insufficient by itself to win a general election.

All this pumping of the tires gets the base giddy with excitement and makes the crash even more painful when the puppetmasters pull the rug out as close to the last minute as they can manage, sapping all enthusiasm on the right when Trump turns out not to be the nominee and some uninspiring milquetoast is instead.

There's no way Trump will support anyone else as the GOP nominee, which means he either runs as an Independent (which ensures a Democrat win) or gets a ton of write-in votes from disgruntled supporters (which ensures a Democrat win).



Even if the conspiracy theories don't play out and Trump carries the GOP banner, since he cannot win a national election by getting only the votes of his devout supporters (nobody can), the whole constant accusation, indictment and trial scenario is designed to succeed in peeling off as many undecideds/independents as possible who surely won't vote for a "criminal" for President. Unless that criminal is a Democrat.

To summarize, the idea is that whether Trump is a damaged GOP nominee or whether he runs third-party, the end result will be the same. Or so the uniparty desperately hopes.

There is one way and perhaps only one way to screw up those plans:

And that is for Joe Manchin and/or RFK to pull a "Perot" and mix things up enough that Trump can still win despite getting no more than about 40% of the popular vote in a 3-way race. That's not too far below Trump's upper limit anyway, but with two opponents splitting the anti-Trump vote he may be able to prevail with something along the lines of the outcome in 1992, when Bill Clinton and his lovely wife Bruno won with just 43%.

There might be as many folks on the left seeking a better option than Biden as there are on the right who are seeking a better option than Trump. If a third party can pull off significantly more votes from the left than the right, but not be so popular as to actually steal any GOP electoral votes, then Trump has a chance to win. However if a third party looks to be even remotely threatening, Democrats will stop at nothing to abort it.

Tags:

Donald Trump 2024 No! Wait! Now we want him OFF the ballot!


7/20/2023: [Colorado] Cook shifts Boebert race to 'toss-up' [The Hill]


Photo credit: Getty Images

The reason is because the liberal Ass-pen Democrat whom Boebert narrowly defeated in 2022 is back for another run at her, and has been given a ton of money so far (probably a good deal of it from "Republicans"), with plenty more to come.

Some folks probably picture Boebert's mostly-rural Colorado district as being one where the people all wear flannel shirts, carry hunting rifles.... and vote Republican. In fact Colorado's 3rd congressional district is now over 26% Hispanic (Boebert did especially poorly in the Mexican counties) and it gave Donald Trump just 51% of the vote in 2020. Analysts even aside from the usual haters on the left marvel at Boebert's unpopularity in what they erroneously believe is a "red" district, but it seems that Trump must be exactly as unpopular as Boebert because they are both 51%-ers here now, at best.

Trump did do better in CO-3 back in 2016, just like everywhere else, before the plandemic made vote fraud so much easier for Democrats, but neither Trump nor Boebert qualifies as truly popular with a majority of voters, fraud or no fraud.

Anyone who inspires a lot of enthusiasm on the GOP side will ALWAYS generate an equal or greater amount of hate among the Rats and the media, and that fact is apparent in the vote totals.

This is a marginal district now whether anyone wants to admit it or not, and barely "red" at all. The Rats have been going all out against Boebert since she took office and she's done well to survive this long. "Independents" vote in the GOP primary (as permitted by Colorado law) in order to support her opponent. That trick didn't work in 2022, but the general was very close and always will be for her.

Despite the tribe of media-controllers gleefully publicizing her recent catfight with MTG, who is another one on the liberals' Most Hated List, we need both of them in Congress -- and many more like them -- since they have more balls (not literally; they're not transvestite Democrats) than nearly any other GOP reps.

But any incumbent getting massively outspent this early in a campaign in a marginal district is in serious trouble, period. It doesn't mean Boebert automatically loses in '24, but nobody should be so naive as to think she's remotely safe.

The funny thing is that CO-3 was moved ever so slightly to the right in the most recent redistricting, greatly disappointing the Boebert haters in both parties. However that minor adjustment is not nearly enough to create a safe environment for Boebert or any Republican. A typical Republican should be favored here, by just a little, but it will always be in the toss-up range. Particularly for GOP candidates designated as "controversial" by the Democrat media. A RINO might get 55% here now, or that approach may backfire as voters pick a real liberal instead of the wannabe liberal; a conservative is going to have to work hard for their 51%.

Tags:

Colorado U.S. House Lauren Boebert


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