| 1/11/2025: 2024 Special Elections: Not So "Special" for Democrats After All [RightDataUSA] | |||
Prior to November in 2024 there was considerable wailing and pearl-clutching on the right (and gloating on the left) over the underperformance -- if not worse -- of Republican candidates in special elections at the congressional and state levels. 
Photo credit: abc7ny.com
It's true that Democrats did win the most important special election of them all. That took place in February in New York's 3rd congressional district, where ex-incumbent Thomas Suozzi (D) easily defeated newcomer Masi Melesa Pilip (R) in that D-leaning district. The election was held in order to select a replacement for freshman Republican George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in December, 2023. The impetus to oust Santos came not so much from Democrats, but mainly from Santos' own party and particularly his fellow Republican freshmen in the New York delegation. Those frightened frosh were fearful of Santos dragging them down with him in November, so they pre-emptively removed him and thought they had solved their problem.
Photo credit: desposito.house.gov
They sure were, exactly as we predicted. In CD-22 Williams was victimized by a Democrat gerrymander which removed good areas of his marginal district and replaced them with bad ones; it didn't require a major change to the lines, just a little push further to the left was sufficient. In September, anti-Santos ringleader D'Esposito was accused by the liberal media of having an affair and then putting the woman on his payroll, but he was a dead man walking even before that. Molinaro went down in flames in CD-19 as well.
In another special election for Congress which took place in June, liberals cackled about Republican Michael Rulli's supposedly weak showing in Ohio's 6th congressional district, where he defeated a relatively penniless Democrat by "only" 9 points in a district which is typically much more GOP-leaning than that. We wrote about that outcome here and noted presciently that Rulli would have no trouble at all in the November rematch. He won by over 30 points. Special elections are often influenced heavily by organizational and motivational factors, and Republicans normally lack both of those in low-turnout elections which are little publicized on the right. Moving down to the state legislative level, in September, 2023 readers were scolded by some trembling GOP establishment blogger who calls himself "Bonchie" that Republicans had failed to learn from the numerous defeats of conservative candidates in 2022 and were still fielding bad (i.e. "conservative") candidates in special elections instead of nice, squishy, electable moderates. He specifically referenced New Hampshire where a conservative GOP nominee lost a 2023 special election in a microscopic state House (not congressional) district that was fraudulently described by the blogger as being solidly Republican. That Republican candidate, minister James Guzofski, did himself no favor by inviting the liberal media to portray him as a kook when he declared something like "Jesus told me that Donald Trump really won in 2020!", and the minister came out on the wrong end of a narrow decision in 2023. "Bonchie" concluded from this infinitesimal sample size that certain disaster awaited the GOP in the 2024 elections everywhere if they didn't heed his warning and run screaming to the left. Guzofski ran again in November, 2024 against the same Democrat who had defeated him in that 2023 special election where less than 3,000 people bothered to vote. This time Guzofski wasn't such a bad candidate after all -- over 50% of the voters chose him and Republicans swept all 3 state House seats in that New Hampshire district. In Florida a marginal state House district in the deteriorating Orlando area was vacated by an incumbent Republican, and the special election in January, 2024 went as expected: Democrat Tom Keen won by 2.6 points in a district which favors his party by about 2 points. As liberals were going bonkers about this "major upset" the massive GOP margin in the FL state House was merely reduced from 85-35 to 84-36. Hardly an occasion for panic, except for those who are easily rattled. What happened the next time a real election rolled around? Keen lost by nearly 4 points to Republican Erika Booth in this Democrat-leaning district, and once again those who had previously declared that the world was coming to an end were proven to be Chicken Littles. Another example: In a state House district which lies just north of Oklahoma City, liberals were outwardly cheerful despite yet another defeat because it was by a much closer margin than expected. Republican Erick Harris prevailed by only 5.3% in a February special election in a district that Democrats hadn't even contested since 2018. Nervous Nellies on the right got the vapors again. Democrats weren't fooled by the fluke outcome although they took the opportunity for some big talk. In November the Rats failed to come up with any nominee at all, and Harris trounced a Libertarian to easily hold the R+14 seat. The Rats never had a chance in this district, but acted as if they did and some idiots believed them. The lesson which should be learned here is -- most of the time, anyway -- there is nothing to be learned from low-turnout special elections, especially when they take place in puny little state House districts; and even more so when the balance of power won't be affected one iota no matter what the outcome is (like in Florida and Oklahoma). Occasionally special elections DO portend a future wave, as in 1993-94 when Republicans won U.S. House elections in places where they had never previously prevailed (like in OK-6 and KY-2) and came surprisingly close to winning in WI-1 which Democrats had held for a quarter-century at the time. Democrat Peter Barca almost lost in 1993 and did lose in 1994; the Rats have never won there again, nor have they ever won again in those Oklahoma and Kentucky districts. There will be 3 special elections to Congress coming up in the first few months of 2025: FL-1 (Matt Gaetz), FL-6 (Michael Waltz) and NY-21 (Elise Stefanik). These vacancies have occurred because the incumbents were nominated for positions in the second Trump administration, though Gaetz has since withdrawn. Each of these 3 districts are solidly Republican, and Democrats will not be winning any of them. But the liberal media will still be watching closely. When a Republican prevails easily, you'll never hear about it -- however if a Democrat does 0.1% better than expected it will be used as anti-Trump propaganda and described as a preview of a definite Republican bloodbath in the 2026 midterms. A bloodbath may in fact happen and the 2026 midterms may be similar to those of 2018, but that has nothing to do with these 3 elections. In all likelihood, what special elections in 2025 and 2026 will tell us about the future is. . . . nothing. Tags:
2024
House
Special (?) elections
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