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4/24/2024: [Pennsylvania] 2024 Primary Election Recap [RightDataUSA]

Here is a review of everything important which happened in the Pennsylvania primaries yesterday.

Turnout:

D votes (presidential): about 991,000
R votes (presidential): about 944,000

People on the right who habitually search for something to be disappointed about are concerned regarding the supposedly low GOP turnout. But based on current registration figures, the percentages are:

D turnout: 25.4%
R turnout: 27.0%

The races at the top of the ballot (President, Senator) featured essentially unopposed candidates for both parties, and there was little to vote for even at the U.S. House level. Since there was basically nothing contested for the GOP anywhere, what reason would there have been for sky-high turnout on that side? Democrats had some things to vote for -- a couple of statewide offices and a couple of U.S. House races.


Photo credit: Philadelphia Inquirer / Patel campaign

The highest-profile Democrat primary in PA took place in the Democrat-gerrymandered 12th congressional district, where terrorist-supporting liberal racist Summer Lee was challenged by a slightly less liberal racist Democrat named Bhavini Patel. Lee didn't bother to campaign much at all (and now we know why) but Patel did. Aside from a minor disagreement on the subject of Israel, Patel tried to stress to her potential primary voters that she was just as hate-filled toward all the "right" things as Lee is. Despite her somnambulant campaign, Lee still outspent Patel by nearly 3:1 according to FEC data from early April, and won by about 20 points.

Months ago when Lee proudly displayed her anti-Semitism by supporting the Hamas terrorists, we considered the impact that her hate might have on this primary election. CD-12 has a substantial Jewish community which did temporarily swing to the right in November of 2023 in the local Allegheny County elections even though Lee herself had nothing directly to do with that movement. That community's financial weight is far more substantial than its voting weight, but there's no evidence that they are suddenly steering their geld to the GOP. Lee only narrowly lost Pittsburgh's heavily-Jewish 14th Ward yesterday (and will apparently win it easily in November), reflecting the fact that she still has considerable support among the more atheistic, secular, ultra-liberal, self-loathing sector of that community. The remainder of the 14th Ward opted for the lesser of the two evils.

Any incumbent who prevails by less than about 70% in a primary election is normally considered vulnerable, depending of course on the composition of the district (Lee barely attained 60%). The CD-12 result in November will probably be closer than many expect but whatever hope yesterday's outcome is generating is highly likely to be false hope. Democrats still outnumber Republicans here by more than a 2:1 ratio and the vastly underfunded Republican in the race, James Hayes, will still probably lose by a considerable amount.

Hayes is a moderate conservative -- a 100% conservative would have a 0% chance of winning this district -- but his campaign treasury contains barely enough to pay for a few yard signs, nevermind expensive media buys. Unless there is some clear evidence in the internal polling that Hayes stands any chance of coming within even 10 points of Lee in November -- which is unlikely -- the RNC is going to spend its limited resources elsewhere, mainly trying to play defense for (at least) a couple dozen vulnerable GOP incumbents. Next up is one of those districts where they are frantically trying to play defense. Or at least they should be:




Photo credit: Bill Kalina, The York Dispatch


That is Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district -- the reprehensible shithole of Harrisburg, the city of York which isn't a whole lot better, and formerly-nice but rapidly deteriorating Cumberland County in between -- where liberal candidates were crawling over each other in their attempt to be "king of the hill" in the Democrat primary and have the honor of taking on embattled conservative Scott Perry in November.

CD-10 contains enough good suburban and rural territory that it counterbalances the Harrisburg and York ghetto vote and the liberal college punkie vote in Carlisle -- but the balance is precarious and getting less favorable every day. The district was heavily gerrymandered by the Pennsylvania Democrat Supreme Court when it trashed the state's entire district map in 2018, and a specific effort was made to "get" Perry from that point forward. He has managed to survive despite that effort, sometimes just barely. Democrats are going all-out this year and will spend as much as it takes; on the other hand Perry has relatively little cash on hand for such a well-entrenched and threatened incumbent.

Perry's status in Congress is unique in one respect -- east of Ohio and north of the Mason-Dixon line there is exactly one conservative Republican in the U.S. House: Scott Perry. An unabashed Trump supporter in addition to his reliable conservatism, Perry routinely causes crazed liberals to foam at the mouth. And not just liberals in the Democrat party; the liberal (money-controlling) wing of the GOP is no fan of Perry either, and there is only scant evidence of the party's support for Perry in 2024 so far.

Perry faced no primary opposition, which is good since he can hardly afford it. The winner of the Rat primary was, as expected, Janelle Stelson, a "bubble headed bleach blonde" talking head from a local Harrisburg TV station.

Stelson wasn't quite the wealthiest Democrat running in the primary field of 6; that was Mike O'Brien, a left-winger claiming to be a "patriot" who ran on his military record. O'Brien was trounced by nearly a 2:1 margin, finishing a distant second. This was always the likeliest outcome; in recent years the Democrat primary electorate nearly always adheres to the diktats of political correctness. Given two candidates with similar leftist credentials and the same mandatory hatreds, female always outranks male, black always outranks White, etc. Sorry, Mikey. If you're not openly gay or a transvestite (and maybe even if you are), you're second-class here.

In any event, the only patriot who was ever in this race is Scott Perry, and he's going to need a lot of help to not only overcome the usual Democrat $$$ advantages, but also to get his message out and overcome the relentlessly negative/biased media coverage from Stelson's allies in the Harrisburg, York and Carlisle areas. Along with the national media, which has made it a priority to help the Democrats pick up this House seat.

Unlike Pennsylvania's CD-12 which is a pipe dream for the GOP, this district really is a battleground and there are at least 20 others just like it nationwide.

These districts have Republican incumbents who are running for re-election, and who are in for the fight of their lives. Some ignorant observers believe that the supposed plethora of open Republican seats will be the ones which are going to be lost and therefore would be the districts responsible for the upcoming loss of House control. That is patently false. Control of the House will be decided first and foremost in these battleground districts rather than the open GOP districts, and both parties know it. The Democrats clearly do, as evidenced by all of the money being funneled into them.



Further down the ballot at the state legislative level, there was some good news for both parties.

In House District 50, GOP incumbent Bud Cook fended off a challenge from Stephanie Waggett. Cook, a mostly conservative representative, was accused of "having a problem with how he treats women" so Waggett changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican to oppose Cook. She appears to have lost by a wide margin, and the Democrats did not run a candidate in this GOP-leaning district.

In the extremely solid 80th District, incumbent moderate Republican Jim Gregory was defeated. Gregory crawled into bed with Democrats in 2023 to thwart legislation which would have enhanced desperately-needed election integrity measures in PA by requiring voter ID.

The GOP primary race in the 117th District (Wilkes-Barre suburbs) is still too close to call, but incumbent liberal Republican Michael Cabell was trailing by a very small amount on the morning after the primary. Cabell raised over 5 times as much money as his challenger but hopefully will end up losing anyway.




Photo credit: glensidelocal.com


But the biggest winners at the state House level were the Democrats, who audibly sighed with relief at the results of the district 172 primary, in which mentally diseased liberal representative Kevin Boyle was running for re-election.

In 2021, Boyle was arrested on charges of harassment and violating a protection from abuse (PFA) order. Two months ago, Boyle was drunk off his overprivileged ass in a Philadelphia bar shortly after midnight and played the "don't you know who the f--- I am?!?" card (a direct quote, actually) when asked nicely to leave. This servant of the people then threatened to use his political influence to have the bar closed forever and threatened to assault the female employees.

He emerged from that episode unscathed in exactly the same way that no Republican ever would, but just as the limited furor over that incident had passed, a warrant was issued for Boyle's arrest for violating his PFA. According to an article posted on the "PA Townhall.com" website, the warrant came following "weeks of escalating public outbursts from the state lawmaker, whose deteriorating mental state forced Democratic leadership to rescind his committee chairmanship". Democrats have allowed Boyle to vote remotely on legislation despite his status as a fugitive. Boyle's vote is important given the narrow 102-100 margin the Rats have recently had in the PA House. [The margin is now 102-101 after the GOP easily won a special election yesterday in the 139th District, making Boyle's continued participation from his undisclosed hideout even more critical to Democrats.]

Like any other arrogant Democrat politician/criminal, Boyle figures he's above the law. And he has good reason to think so -- because he is.

Not only is nothing happening regarding his alcohol-fueled activities from February, but just one day before the primary, hyper-partisan Democrat Philly D.A. Larry Krasner suddenly withdrew the arrest warrant which had been issued on Boyle. The D.A. lamely asserted that there was a "piece missing" in the case, that piece apparently being the fact that Boyle is not a Republican. Which means the two-tiered "justice" system works in his favor instead of against him, as Dirty Larry has ensured.

Boyle still lost yesterday, as most Democrats hoped he would. If he hadn't, Republicans would've been handed a golden opportunity to pick up the seat in November. District 172 should be at least somewhat marginal, but it normally favors Democrats pretty heavily these days.

If Boyle had won, his own party was preparing to create a law which would allow them to expel him; then there would have been a quickie special election, a new Democrat elected in Boyle's place, and the seat would have been salvaged for November. This was the same logic which impelled the Republicans to eject conservative freshman George Santos from the U.S. House, but the Stupid Party neglected to take into account the leftward lean of Santos' district and the major funding advantage Democrats always have in competitive districts, and so they threw away the seat needlessly. But at least they got rid of a conservative, so it wasn't a total loss for the RINOs!

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2024 Pennsylvania


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