9/14/2024: Senate's most vulnerable list still dominated by Democrats [Roll Call] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
The caption at rollcall.com which accompanies the above photo describes Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) and his wife as they "celebrate on the final night of the Democratic National Convention". That's one grim-looking "celebration". It seems they aren't feeling the "joy" which, as you surely know by now, is one of the laughable emotional buzzwords that has been assigned to Queen Kamala's campaign by the gaslighting liberal media. It looks more like the Caseys are feeling a bit of constipation, and there's some chance they may get that sensation again in November, whenever Pennsylvania finally decides to stop vote-counting.
Photo credit: CNN
1. West Virginia
Photo credit: Fox News
2. Montana
Photo credit: AP News
At long last it appears that Tester's appeal has diminished to the point where he is in serious trouble. He may be in trouble in the polls, where surveys lately show Sheehy ahead by about 5 points, but if money alone determined the election outcome Tester would be winning in a landslide. As of the latest FEC filings, Tester has spent over $33 million as opposed to just over $10 million for Sheehy. As we have mentioned here on numerous occasions, there's not a House district or Senate seat in the U.S. where Democrats can't outspend Republicans by incredible margins if they want to. This will be proven to be true in almost every single hotly-contested Senate and House race in 2024.
Photo credit: 10TV
3. Ohio
Photo credit: WCPO
The 2022 Republican nominee, J.D. Vance, was (and still is) unacceptably conservative according to the wimpy wing of the Republican party, he had some trouble raising money and seemed to be off the air for long periods in the summer while Ryan was on the attack 24/7. Smelling blood in the water and sensing an unexpected pickup opportunity, Democrats flooded the state with oodles of cash and Ryan was able to outspend Vance by the margin of $57 million to $15 million. After trailing most of the time, finally in October Vance consistently pulled ahead in the polls and then won in November, but it was uncomfortably close in supposedly "dark red" Ohio.
Photo credit: Ohio Star
The 2024 Republican nominee, Bernie Moreno, is unacceptably conservative according to the wimpy wing of the Republican party, he has had some trouble raising money and seemed to be off the air for long periods in the summer while Brown was on the attack 24/7. Democrats flooded the state with oodles of cash and Brown has so far been able to outspend Moreno by the margin of $43 million to $11 million. After trailing the entire time, finally in September Moreno appears to be closing the gap in the polls, but has yet to be shown in the lead in any poll. Will "dark red" Ohio come through for Moreno, with Trump dragging him across the finish line?
Photo credit: Market Realist
4. Michigan
Photo credit: Rogers for Senate
Stabenow's replacement in the 8th congressional district in 2000 was Republican Mike Rogers -- the same guy who is now trying to replace her in the Senate in 2024. Rogers, who was at the time a Michigan state senator, defeated fellow state senator Dianne Byrum in 2000 by just 160 votes out of nearly 300,000. Rogers campaigned as a moderate and was even able to obtain some endorsements from Democrat politicians.
Photo credit: CNN
It was Elissa Slotkin -- the "former" Deep State operative who is now the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Senate race against Mike Rogers. Photo credit: Lancaster Online
5. Pennsylvania
Photo credit: Dave McCormick PA
Casey's (the Junior one) challenger this year is Dave McCormick. McCormick spent lavishly of his own money in the 2022 Republican primary vs. "Electable" Dr. Oz, but lost by less than 1,000 votes out of 1.34 million which were cast. McCormick graciously conceded and now has returned for another shot at the Senate -- this time with the GOP field cleared for him; no more dealing with pesky moderate dilettantes like Oz or staunch conservatives like Kathy Barnette. McCormick is again funding a large part ($4 million as of late June) of his own campaign and, aside from a recent left-biased outlier poll from CBS, appears to be inching closer to a possible -- but still unlikely -- upset.
Other states which could have close Senate elections:
Conclusion: The most likely scenario is that the Republicans will have a net gain of 1 or 2 seats in the Senate. If they win West Virginia and Montana but nothing more, and do not lose Florida or Texas, that will be a pretty good election night at the Senate level. But we'll still have people wailing and being bitterly disappointed in positive developments -- just like they were in 2022 -- because their greedy expectation of "muh red wayve" didn't come true and Santa didn't leave everything they wished for under the Christmas tree. Tags:
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8/23/2024: Reverse Poll-arity [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Your humble author here at RightDataUSA can now see that he wasted his time many years ago getting a 4-year Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics and Statistics, because it turns out that a person can become an expert on subjects like polling, sampling, margins of error, etc. without any expensive formal education. He can demonstrate his alleged expertise simply by parroting the same boilerplate drivel which those who are offended by unwelcome polling results routinely resort to.
Donald Trump was doing reasonably well in what turned out to be the final polls against Joe Biden, but suddenly things are a lot tighter or have even flipped in some places. Weird, eh?
Some who are not entirely clueless on the subject of polling claim -- with some justification -- that the reversals suffered by Trump and down-ballot Republicans lately do not necessarily mean that respondents have reconsidered whom they intend to vote for in November. But they proceed from that valid assertion to declare that the numbers have begun heading the wrong direction merely because the pollsters are "cooking the books" -- meaning that they have baselessly altered their underlying sampling schemes in various ways which appear to energize the left and demoralize the right. What these folks identify as the pollsters' motivation for this (e.g., "setting up the Democrat steal in November") descends back into boilerplate drivel territory, but regardless of motivation the dynamics of the upcoming election have changed and the forecasting models which are employed by pollsters therefore must also change.
Outliers notwithstanding, most pollsters have recalibrated their surveys to reflect the fact that the presidential race is quite obviously not the same as it was prior to the Democrat coup which forced Biden's exit from the ticket. Still, there are those who refuse to accept that these recalibrations are necessary and instead see nothing but sinister motives for the changes. Well then, let's turn this around 180 degrees and gauge the reaction. What would happen if the identity of the Republican candidate suddenly changed in mid-stream? What would happen if we dumped some lackluster presumptive nominee and switched over to our own "rock star"? Photo credit: CNN
Picture, if you will, an alternate universe where Nikki Haley easily won all of the 2024 GOP primaries because she was unopposed except by some pissant candidate like whoever the Republican equivalent of Dean Phillips is (some alleged "moderate" who nobody's ever heard of).
Photo credit: Ethan Hyman
Among other things, we'd be hearing:
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8/22/2024: House Battlegrounds -- Alaska and Washington [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In 2020 the voters of Alaska allowed themselves to be bamboozled by a slick advertising campaign bankrolled by tons of out-of-state liberal money, and approved Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) by the margin of 50.5% to 49.5%; it took effect with the 2022 elections. Under RCV as it is still being used in Alaska in 2024, all candidates for an office run together on a single primary ballot, with the top 4 -- regardless of party -- advancing to the general election ballot. If no candidate gets over 50% on the "first" ballot in November, votes are shuffled around and many voters are disenfranchised, and then the Democrat (or ultra-liberal Republican) wins. At least that's how it works in practice.
Photo credit: womenzmag.com
For example, RCV was directly responsible for the otherwise highly-unlikely Republican loss of the Alaska U.S. House seat in 2022, and this new convoluted way of counting votes assisted immeasurably with the Senate re-election of far-left "Republican" Lisa Murkowski over underfunded conservative challenger Kelly Tshibaka that year. Democrats did not even bother to contest that Senate election aside from the tiniest token effort, since Murkowski is for all intents and purposes one of them anyway; she votes more often with Democrats than she does with Republicans.
Photo credit: Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon)
Buyer's remorse regarding RCV has set in, and this November the repeal of that abomination will be on the ballot after withstanding court challenges from the left. That's fine, but Republicans on August 20 took one (perhaps) last opportunity to demonstrate their stupidity. They once again ran multiple candidates for the House -- Begich is back for another shot, opposed by gadfly candidate Nancy Dahlstrom -- and once again have created a damaging intra-party rift which is likely to be costly in November.
Photo credit: ustimespost.com
The state of Washington held its primary on August 6, but the deadline for vote-counting isn't until August 23. There were a few races worth noting in this all-mail voting state, including one which very may well continue past the stated deadline -- but only if the Republican erases the infinitesimal lead which a Democrat currently has. After all, it's a well-established state tradition that the result of a close election is not declared final until the Democrat wins (just ask Republican "Governor" Dino Rossi).
Photo credit: carboncredits.com
The real nailbiter of a race which is currently going on in Washington is for the office of Commissioner of Public Lands (CPL), which is wide open since the incumbent liberal Democrat commissioner, Hillary Franz, chose to run for Congress in Washington's 6th district instead. She lost her primary earlier this month and promptly blamed dark and evil forces for her defeat. Speaking of which, the easy winner in November in CD-6 will now be ultra-liberal Democrat Emily Randall, who will be a real barrier-breaker as the first Latina dyke ever to be elected to Congress.
Pederson ran against Franz in 2020 and lost by 13.5%. She has never held public office. Herrera is the Trump-hating former congresswoman and Impeachment RINO who was defeated in the 2022 primary election. She refused to endorse the conservative Republican (Joe Kent) who defeated her, and Kent went on to lose narrowly to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez -- another freshman who, like Alaska's Mary Peltola, has been furiously faking to the center in 2024 in a desperate bid to conceal her liberal leanings from the voters in her district. Kent has been magnanimous where Beutler was not, and he has endorsed his former opponent in her bid to become Washington's Commissioner of Public Lands. The top 3 finishers in the CPL race are listed above; the remaining votes are scattered among 4 candidates. Herrera and Pederson are the only two Republicans in the race; five Democrats split approximately 57% of the vote. If the Democrats quickly certify Upthegrove as the #2 finisher in the primary (which they will if he stays ahead; otherwise look for as many recounts as necessary) he will therefore be the clear favorite to win in November when the Democrats unite behind their guy. Having two GOP-ers on the ballot and zero Democrats, resulting in a guaranteed Republican win, would have been quite an accomplishment for the party. We'll find out shortly if that's allowed to happen. Photo credit: mynorthwest.com
Elsewhere in Washington, there were hotly-contested primary elections in the three districts (out of a total of 10) where Republicans have any real chance at victory in November.
Washington congressional district 4
The highest-profile congressional primary in Washington took place in the solidly Republican (R+11) 4th district, which covers the central third of the state geographically, including Yakima and the Tri-Cities area. CD-4 is only 52% White and 40% Hispanic (nearly all of which are Mexicans) but the non-citizens tend to not vote, and those citizens who do vote lean staunchly to the right. No Democrat has exceeded 40% in a House election here since 1996, with the exception of 2006 when the Rats barely cleared that figure (40.1%).
Sessler ran for the CD-4 seat in 2022 and finished fourth in the primary, splitting the conservative vote with former gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp. Culp finished third, so only Newhouse and Democrat Doug White advanced to the general election. That outcome was quite the win-win for the GOPe and other leftists, with two conservatives biting the dust and two liberals moving on. A similar scheme was in the cards for 2024 as well, with the GOPe protecting Newhouse again by having former senatorial candidate Tiffany Smiley enter the race belatedly in order to siphon votes from Sessler. Smiley was obliterated in the 2022 U.S. Senate race vs. doddering ultra-liberal incumbent Patsy Murray, but in the process Smiley proved to be an attractive candidate (in maximum contrast to Murray; unfortunately the election wasn't a beauty contest) -- and more importantly Smiley showed a solid ability to fundraise. She actually raised several million more than Murray in terms of small donations, but Murray had the full weight of the ActBlue Democrat money launderers and lots of other billionaire/corporate funding. Plus, this is Washington after all -- it's not as if a Democrat Senate incumbent is going to lose no matter how much money any GOP challenger raises. Smiley was likely insinuated into the CD-4 House race by the GOPe this year with the hope that she could overwhelm Sessler in the $$$$ department, but she couldn't. Smiley tried to convince voters that she is a conservative but utterly failed to do that. Her past track record as a moderate, including endorsements from groups like the left-wing Log Cabin Republican homos, did not endear her to the voters. Smiley was eliminated from further contention with less than 20% of the vote. Sessler came in first with 33% and Newhouse received only 23%. This is the first time since 2014 that Newhouse has failed to finish first in the primary -- but he defeated a conservative Republican (former NFL tight end Clint Didier) that November too. Sadly, he'll probably survive again this year. Sessler's going to need damn near every one of Smiley's voters to flock to his side because Newhouse will get the 23% who went for Democrats in the primary. That plus his own 23% gets him real close. Ugh. Photo credit: jerrodforcongress.com
Sessler is a decorated Naval veteran (not some Stolen Valor coward like Democrat VP nominee Tampon Timmy Walz) who has also beaten Stage IV cancer which was said to be 95% terminal. He is a solid Christian conservative who describes himself as an American Patriot. Perhaps at this point you are beginning to understand why the GOPe fears Jerrod Sessler.
Photo credit: Outside Groove
As an aside, Sessler's campaign bio touches briefly on the fact that he is a "former NASCAR driver". It's hardly a big part of his list of qualifications, but it almost became a sticking point two years ago. Sessler was no national star as a driver; he participated in a small regional racing series which was under the auspices of NASCAR. [BTW, Sessler is the second ex-NASCAR driver running for the House this year as a Republican; we wrote about the other one here].
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7/23/2024: Who Will Be Cackles' Veep? [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: Robert Deutsch, USA Today
This may become a pertinent question even sooner than expected. Kamala "Cackles" Harris isn't merely the presumptive Democrat nominee for the 2024 presidential election, she may be elevated to President any time now. Although President Biden's personal physician, who is apparently Dr. Nick Riviera, assured the nation on Monday that the President was still alive and continuing to "perform all his presidential duties", this is the same doctor who recently insisted -- everyone's lying eyes notwithstanding -- that Biden was fit as a fiddle and sharp as a tack. The comparison of those items to Biden is valid only if they had just been run over by a train. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Candidates from the gubernatorial ranks include: Andy Beshear (D-KY), J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) and Tim Walz (D-MN). Beshear, a pretty boy in an empty suit, could (or so the Democrats think) plausibly pose as a moderate, but the reality is that he's no such thing, and he probably wouldn't even be able to deliver Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. Pritzker's usefulness on the ticket would be limited to donut-eating contests; Illinois is in no danger of voting anything other than Democrat for president anyway. The same applies to Walz except for maybe the donut-eating part, though there are (or at least were) some fever dreams on the right about Minnesota going for Trump in November. Democrats are rightfully unconcerned about that possibility, and will not select Walz simply to defend against it.
mynewsgh.com
The favorite among these has to be Pennsylvania Governor Joshua Shapiro. Shapiro is from the most important of all swing states, is known to be highly covetous of national office, and PA would instantly go from "tossup" to "likely Democrat" in the 2024 presidential election if Shapiro gets the VP slot. As we mentioned just a few days ago, without Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes Trump is going to have pull off a major upset somewhere else in order to get to 270 EV. The Democrat Veep is still unknown at this moment, but whoever it is will not have a tremendous effect on the national polls; it will be sufficient if he impacts the polls in just one swing state. Some on the right are still nervously reciting (at least for a few more days) polls showing Trump "crushing" Cackles in now-irrelevant surveys which were taken before Biden dropped out of the 2024 race. Even before this week Harris was speculatively included in some polls of course, but only since Sunday have we been inundated -- and will continue to be inundated -- by liberal media shills puffing about how wonderful, competent and "brat" Cackles is. [We don't speak punkie or monkey around here or whatever language that is, so we don't know what the hell "brat" means, but adolescent voters seem to consider it to be a positive thing.] Ignorant, gullible, non-adolescent voters who weren't overly familiar with Harris up to now will be told that she's Cleopatra, Indira Gandhi, Eva Peron and Golda Meir all rolled into one; not that any of those are good things, but we're talking about gullible voters here who are easily impressed by whatever lies the media feeds them. When Harris' approval begins to skyrocket, however astroturfed that skyrocketing is, Trump isn't going to be "crushing" her in any polls -- and he already isn't; at least not in any legitimate polls which were taken beginning on 7/21. And just wait a few weeks, or days (or hours) before Biden croaks or resigns and this thoroughly unqualified dunce is suddenly "President Kamala Harris, Commander-in-Chief"! If you think the hysterical media worship and adulation for B. Hussein Obama back in 2008 was ridiculous, you ain't seen nothing yet. Take Bonzo, make him a female (a real one, not a closet homo), and run him/her against the most media-despised presidential candidate in U.S. history. Wait a short period of time for the effect of the 100% positive stories about Harris, combined with the 100% negative media stories about Trump. . . and THEN take a gander at those supposedly crushing polls. They will likely be crushing in a way that the good people of America do not want to believe. Until actually forced to face reality, some will continue to deny it. They will rely on outdated polls which are no longer relevant, and claim that Trump's overall lead is holding steady. As if that lead was ever much to brag about. Even considering things as they were prior to Biden's dropout, Trump leading only by 1 or 2 percent, or slightly more but within the small margin of error against a comatose candidate like Biden should hardly fill anyone with confidence. Basement Biden was practically as somnolent in 2020 as he is now, and he still "somehow" won. No matter whether Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Manchin or whoever were tested in some previous polls, Trump's Democrat opponent had been Joe Biden and only Joe Biden up until Sunday. Past data on any other matchup is not remotely as meaningful. Now of course, even the Trump-Biden or Trump-Biden-RFK polls are not meaningful anymore. Those who foolishly believe that Trump was going to cruise (and that cruising was barely above water level anyway) better have their shocked faces ready when the polls come out after the media REALLY goes into overdrive for Kamala, especially when they do so for "President Harris" once Biden croaks/resigns. You've never seen anything like it unless you were in the Soviet Union to observe how their obedient media treated Joseph Stalin, or how our own New York Times adored Uncle Joe -- or Fidel Castro. True Trump supporters aren't going to be fooled by 24/7 Harris Hagiography; no matter how desperately the Democrat media tries to spin Kamala's record, we know that she got to where she is today because of what's between her. . . well, it's not because of what's between her ears. But enough ignorant "independent" voters WILL be influenced by the daily coronation ceremonies, and the Rats only need to swing a small percentage of the ignorati back in the Democrat direction. The Trump campaign team better all have their thinking caps on regarding how they're going to combat this. Given Cackles' past, it sounds like it should be fairly easy. But it won't be -- the media won't allow it. July 25 update: It's fashionable to claim that Shapiro as V.P. would effectively concede the state of Michigan to Trump, and that's a poor trade considering that the Democrats can win Pennsylvania even without Shapiro. That forfeiture of Michigan is not certain by any means. Don't overrate the Muslim vote in Michigan, it's not all that substantial. Anyway, why would those Muslims bypass Kamala Harris, who for all intents and purposes is a Muslim in a political sense, just because of who her VP is? The answer is: they won't. A lot of them in Michigan will look past the VP selection (Josh Shapiro hates Benjamin Netanyahu as much as a typical Dearbornistan resident does anyway) and vote (D) as they normally do. They will not defect nearly enough to throw Michigan to Trump. Also: the state of Florida better not even be close in November, but if it is then a pick of Shapiro would be a master stroke, for the obvious reason. Tags: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7/13/2024: The "Keystone" For the 2024 Presidential Election, or "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Pennsylvania But Were Afraid to Ask" [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
If the polls are even close to being accurate, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election is going to be determined by the results in just six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are often referred to as the "swing" states. North Carolina isn't on that list, but probably should be; folks on the right like to pretend it's a 1000% mortal lock for the GOP, but it's not. It just leans slightly in the direction of Republicans at the presidential level in recent years.
2024 presidential election map; swing states in purple
If the Democrat candidate, whoever it turns out to be, wins every state that Democrats normally win, he/she/it will receive 226 electoral votes (EV) from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine*, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
Assuming everything else goes as expected, Trump needs 35 EV from those six states in order to win; the Democrat nominee needs at least 44. 2020 presidential election results in PA
Pennsylvania has been reliably Democrat presidentially from 1992 to the present with the exception of 2016 when overconfident Democrats just barely failed to manufacture enough votes in the Philadelphia ghetto to deprive Donald Trump from eking out a statewide win by 0.7%. Trump would have won the presidency even without PA's 20 electoral votes that year, but Democrats still rued their mistake and vowed it would not happen again in 2020. It didn't.
2024 scenarios: If Trump wins all of the states which Republicans usually win these days, he needs only Georgia and Pennsylvania among the six swing states and the result is a 270-268 win. Trump 270, Democrat 268
If Trump loses PA, then he still loses even if he takes both Arizona and Nevada along with Georgia (268-270).
Democrat 270, Trump 268 (and now that one Nebraska electoral vote looks huge)
Wisconsin likely isn't going to Trump (current illusions aside), what with the Wisconsin Democrat Supreme Court recently issuing a ruling which trashes the election integrity measures passed by the state legislature, and practically mandates Democrat vote fraud. Correspondingly, any delusionals who are dreaming about a GOP Senate pickup in WI can wake up now and face reality unless some 1994-ish tidal wave hits in November.
The stakes are too high to simply fold up and wait for some other year, as they did in the days of Walter Mondale, George McGovern and Mike Dukakis. Not this time. Not when the GOP nominee is Donald Trump, a man who deranged leftists believe is "literally Hitler". And not with control of the House and Senate so much up-for-grabs. In 1972, 1984 and 1988 Democrats knew with 100% certainty that they would maintain House control irrespective of the presidential outcome; they also had the Senate in their pockets for two of those three election years. Memo to GOP cheerleaders: become overconfident at your own idiotic risk. The last Democrat to win the White House without PA was Harry Truman in 1948. George W. Bush was twice elected president without PA, in 2000 and 2004. Richard Nixon accomplished the same thing in 1968 though he and George Wallace combined for 52.4% of the vote in Pennsylvania. Bellwether status: only three times since 1948 has PA's voting percentage for the GOP presidential candidate varied by more than about 2% from the national average. Two of those years were 1988 and 1984, when longtime Democrat steel-mill towns in southwestern PA, which had begun dying well before Reagan ever took office, swung hard to the left against Reagan anyway. The Pittsburgh metropolitan area was the only one of any significant size in the entire country where Reagan's percentage of the vote declined from 1980 to 1984. Bush was able to amass enough electoral votes elsewhere that he did not need the Keystone State in '00 and '04. As it turned out, Trump didn't need it in 2016 either -- but he almost certainly does now. 2000 presidential election results
In 2000, Dubya won several states which are no longer normally winnable for the GOP in a presidential election -- Colorado and Virginia being the biggest of those. In 2000 CO and VA, plus Nevada and New Hampshire, added 29 electoral votes to the GOP total, more than offsetting the absence of PA's 23 EV. Bush of course also won as expected in Arizona and Georgia, which were solid Republican properties at that time but are now rightfully considered swing states. Bush did lose Iowa which is now considered true-blue (proper color usage). Bush won by a total of 5 EV that year, 271 to 266.
2004 presidential election results
In 2004 Bush repeated his victories in VA + CO and picked up Iowa and New Mexico but dropped New Hampshire. The outcome in the electoral college wasn't nearly as close as it had been four years earlier. The final score was: Bush 286, Lurch 251. The major Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin once again were not needed.
We have divided the commonwealth of Pennsylvania into seven sectors which are analyzed below, in order of their size and political impact, from smallest to largest. Photo credit: visiterie.com
Erie sector (Erie County):
Photo credit: govtech.com
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton sector (Lackawanna and Luzerne counties):
Photo credit: visithersheyharrisburg.org
Harrisburg-Lebanon-York sector (Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon and York counties):
Photo credit: amishfarmandhouse.com
Reading-Lancaster-Allentown sector (Berks, Carbon, Lancaster, Lehigh and Northampton counties):
Photo credit: wellsboropa.com
Non-metro sector, i.e. "The T":
Photo credit: Richard Nowitz / visitpittsburgh.com
Pittsburgh sector (Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties):
Blinded by their ancestral loyalty to the Democrat party, the Bitter Clingers voted for Obama anyway that November. But as in northeastern PA, when Obama's Environmental Protection Agency declared "War on Coal", the blinders were finally removed and many of these voters were through with the Democrat party once and for all. It sure took long enough. All through the FDR years, the Pittsburgh sector voted more Democrat than any other sector in the state. Even for several decades after FDR finally perished, the voters of southwestern PA remained attached to his Welfare State programs and their descendants. Pittsburgh didn't like Ike in '52 and voted for Egghead Adlai; naturally the heavily-Catholic ethnic voters of the region (like the ones in northeast PA) strongly preferred their co-religionist in 1960. Pittsburgh was the most anti-Nixon (36.7%) of all PA sectors in 1968 -- and the most pro-George Wallace (10.6%). It was the only Pennsylvania sector to vote against Ronald Reagan in 1980 and as mentioned previously was the only significant metro area in the entire U.S. to move further left during Reagan's 1984 demolition of hapless Fritz Mondale. Speaking of hapless, Mike Dukakis achieved 59% of the Pittsburgh sector's vote in 1988, a far greater percentage than the intrepid Tank Commander received in any other portion of PA. During the 1990s Pittsburgh was overtaken by the Philadelphia metro area as being the most liberal in the state, but southwestern PA still gave solid -- though decreasing -- margins to Democrats from 1992 through 2008. By the early 2000s the Steel City area was the most marginal in Pennsylvania, with the potential to tilt either way though it still leaned slightly to the left in presidential elections. By 2012, the effects of Obama's "War on Coal" were evident and the areas of the country which still depended on coal for what little economic vitality they had, finally rebelled at the ballot box. From eastern and southern Ohio, through small-town western Pennsylvania, all of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, long-time reflexive Democrat voters began trending Republican in large numbers.
The media and other Democrats will always use urban ghetto and barrio areas as examples of woeful "poverty" because it suits their racist anti-White agenda -- but if you ever want to see real poverty in America, look to the areas of Appalachia mentioned in the last paragraph. They were poor to begin with and now have been further impoverished by Democrat political policies.
Photo credit: Thom Carroll / phillyvoice.com
Philadelphia sector (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties):
Photo credit: AP / Denis Paquin
The real "reaction" was against the fact that the GOP was now being led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich and like-minded conservatives -- and therefore was viewed by the left-wingnuts of BOTH parties as being racists, rednecks, sexists, Bible-thumpers, illiterate trailer-trash, etc. This was no longer the party of moderate milquetoasts like former House Minority Leader Bob Michel. Republicans finally had some power in Washington after four dark decades and -- gasp! -- they might actually try to use that power!
As of the early ("pre-Gingrich") 1990s the country club suburbs were still comfortably Republican in terms of registrations but not always in terms of their presidential voting. In 1992, Bill and Hillary defeated George Bush by the slender margin of 39.9% to 39.7% in the suburban ring around Philly. Aside from the Goldwater year, this was the first time ever for those counties as a whole to vote Democrat for president. While some deterioration was clearly already taking place as of 1992, the area's leftward lurch gained serious traction after 1994. Dole's losing margin in 1996 was 4.6 points, Dubya was defeated by 5.3% in 2000 and then by 7.1% in 2004. Things got much worse in 2008, and they haven't improved since that time: 2008: Obama +15.5% 2012: Obama +9.7% 2016: Hillary +13.9% 2020: Biden +18.9%
Remember, all of the above data is for the Philadelphia suburbs only and contains no part of the city.
Voter registrations are, much more often than not, lagging indicators of an area's voting preference; the trend is evident at the ballot box before it shows up in head counts of party membership. That is because voting is an immediate reaction to a political situation, whereas party membership is part of a voter's identity. Registration statistics in the Philly sector belatedly confirmed the movement which was already being seen in the election data. These liberal Republicans perhaps hoped that the GOP's unpalatable (though mostly infinitesimal) move toward the right would cease, and the party would "come back to them". Maybe that was why there was no great rush by suburban Philadelphia voters to abandon the GOP and re-register as Democrats immediately after 1994. In 1994 there were about 341,000 more Republicans than Democrats here, and that margin actually increased to nearly 368,000 as of 1996. Even by 2000, as Albert Einstein Gore was winning the Philly suburbs, GOP registrations in Bucks, ChesCo, DelCo and MontCo still outnumbered Democrats by almost 350,000. Then the mass exodus from the GOP began, with more and more liberal Republicans completing their journey to the Far Left and officially becoming registered Democrats. As of 2004 the Republican advantage had been reduced to 245,000 and just four years later it was down to practically zero. This movement was not solely caused by new Democrats invading the suburbs, fresh from the Philly ghetto and other places. As Democrat registrations blossomed, the GOP head count was dropping precipitously, whether from party switches or because Republican voters were fleeing these suburbs altogether. By 2009, Democrats had the bigger numbers and the trend is only lately slowing -- but not reversing. In November of 2020, Democrats were +158,000 in voter registrations here; as of July, 2024 the number stands at +163,000. Registration totals are not just trivial factoids, because these days ballots are the important thing; every registered voter represents a "ballot", whether the voter casts that ballot or not. If he doesn't, the ballot can still be "harvested" after election day by (Democrat) party operatives. And that ballot, even if fraudulently completed, counts every bit as much as legitimate votes do. If GOP vote-counters in some tiny Podunk Republican county wished to commit fraud, their ability to do so is very limited because that tiny county has so few registered voters, i.e. so few possible BALLOTS. However, when Democrat vote counters in large metropolitan counties choose to commit fraud on behalf of their party, the number of BALLOTS they can harvest -- whether by pretending to contact persons who did not vote, or by simply scanning the same Democrat ballots again and again -- is virtually unlimited by comparison to what a tiny Republican county could do. Trump lost the Philadelphia suburbs by almost 300,000 votes in 2020; he lost the inner-city of Philadelphia by another 470,000. He is likely to do about the same in those places, if not worse, in 2024. That's a lot of votes -- over three-quarters of a million -- to make up in the rest of this politically marginal state. Polls currently suggest that Trump may be able to pull it off. But polls aren't ballots. Photo credit: Charles Fox / Philadelphia Inquirer
Before we close, there is one other factor to consider regarding elections in Pennsylvania:
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7/2/2024: Virginia: Not "Good" At All; New York: Fire (Chief) Has Been Extinguished; Colorado: Democrat Manipulators Invade GOP Primaries Again [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In Virginia the results were literally "not Good", as staunch conservative Bob Good (100% lifetime ACU rating through 2023) was narrowly defeated in the CD-5 GOP primary by state Sen. John McGuire, who also purports to be a conservative. Bob Good (not to be confused with former congressman and presidential candidate Virgil Goode, who represented this same district from 1997-2008) was first elected in 2020 when he beat incumbent moderate Denver Riggleman -- who later bolted from the GOP -- at the party convention and then prevailed over black liberal Democrat Cameron Webb in the general. The national Democrat party saw to it that Webb had nearly $6 million to spend (vs. Good's barely $1 million) and dumped even more into the pot via an additional $4.6 million in "independent" expenditures against the Republican. Good fit the district reasonably well and had no trouble being re-elected in 2022.
Photo credit: Evan Vucci/AP
Walking hand-in-hand with liberal GOPeers such as Kevin McCarthy this time around was a guy by the name of Donald Trump, who declared war on Bob Good because the 100% conservative congressman had violated Trump's First Commandment: "Thou shalt have no other gods before Me". Good, you see, endorsed Ron DeSantis for president over a year ago but then switched back to Trump and even went so far as to show up in person in New York City to support Trump during the former president's political persecution trial in Juan Merchan's Kangaroo courtroom.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, among her numerous repulsive traits, is petty, vengeful and unforgiving -- or worse -- to those who cross her; Vince Foster, Ron Brown and Jim McDougal were unavailable for comment on that subject. Bill had nothing to say either. Although the Clintons do possess an "enemies list", Hillary never acted upon that list -- at least not in any way which would deprive her congressional enemies of their jobs. She did not wreak vengeance on the ultra-liberal members of her party who endorsed Barack Hussein Obama over her in 2008, nor on those who endorsed Bernie Sanders against her in 2016. That's not because Hillary has any kind of warm and forgiving side, it's because only the Stupid Party is stupid enough to deliberately sabotage those who represent its ideological and electoral base. Democrats, like Communists, always put the Party first; RINOs would rather see aggressively conservative Republicans like Bob Good defeated whenever possible. The RINOs got their wish in Virginia last month. While Trump had his own petty reason for attempting to terminate the career of this particular conservative, the rest of the GOPe had another reason. The squishes don't find themselves allied with Donald Trump very often (but still more often than we would like), but because Good had voted to topple RINO McCarthy as Speaker last year -- and because of Good's resolutely conservative record -- the GOPe were all-in against him alongside the former president. Photo credit: Steve Helber/AP
The backstabbing of Good was reminiscent of prior events in the Old Dominion, such as when conservative Dave Brat was abandoned by the GOPe and hung out to dry, allowing him to be outspent heavily and defeated by Abby "Deep State" Spanbarger in congressional district 7 in the anti-Trump wave election of 2018.
VA-4 results in 2014 VA-4 results in 2016
The goal of the gerrymander was to obliterate the 4th district as previously drawn (see above maps), and cause it to expel a White Republican incumbent (Randy Forbes) and replace him with a black Democrat. This was easily accomplished. However a side effect was to significantly alter Brat's 7th district, much to his detriment, as you can see from the following maps.
VA-7 results in 2014 VA-7 results in 2018
Bad areas of Chesterfield and Henrico counties in the Richmond suburbs were added to VA-7, causing their proportion of the district vote to increase to around 60% from 50%. Brat still won in 2016 fairly easily, but with a margin (15 points) that was noticeably down from what it had been in 2014 (24 points). Prior to redistricting CD-7 was rated as R+10; after redistricting it was closer to R+2. Then came the 2018 election, the district flipped from blue to red (proper color usage) where it has remained, and Brat was finished. Democrats were happy; the GOPe was elated.
Photo credit: David Zalubowski /AP
In Colorado, Lauren Boebert took the first successful step in her bid for re-election in her new district (CD-4) as she easily defeated 5 other Republicans in the June 25th primary. Boebert, the current incumbent in CD-3, did not run in the special CD-4 election to replace Ken Buck, the formerly righteous conservative who ran shrieking to the left and exited a few months ago in order to hamstring the narrow GOP House majority even further than it already was.
Federal Election Commission reports concerning Colorado's 3rd district show that something called the "Rocky Mountain Values" PAC spent nearly $200K against conservative Ron Hanks, who was able to raise only $22,000 himself to fight back against the liberals -- Democrats and Republicans -- who supported his main primary opponent, moderate-liberal lawyer Jeffrey Hurd. The left-wing media claims that Rocky Mountain Values actually spent $500,000, and that the funds were spent supporting Hanks, because the PAC calculated that the conservative would be easier to beat in November. This Democrat PAC exists for the sole purpose of collecting and spending money to manipulate Republican primary outcomes in Colorado, one way or the other. He could have had an impact, but Donald Trump was silent in the CD-3 primary race and avoided endorsing the conservative; probably because that woefully-underfunded conservative was likely to lose the primary anyway. Which he did, by about 13 points in a 6-way race; current figures show Hurd as the winner with 41.3%, to 28.5% for Hanks. This is not the first time Democrats have openly tried to sabotage Republican primaries in Colorado. In numerous states in 2022, Democrats cleared the field for their chosen candidates in winnable statewide elections, thereby averting needlessly expensive and divisive primaries. That tactic also frees up Democrat voters who, because they have no real contests of their own to vote in, are able to cross over and manipulate the outcome of GOP primaries. Colorado state law even allows "independent" voters to participate in Republican primary elections without having to bother to re-register (no matter how temporarily) as Republicans. In 2022, only in the Pennsylvania Senate race (among all truly contested two-party races for Governor or Senate in the entire country) did Democrats allow the possibility of an acrimonious primary election. But it never happened because all of the party's heavyweights -- and their money -- were on the side of radical leftist candidate John Fetterman instead of the slightly less liberal candidate, Conor Lamb. Lambykins was never close in any primary poll, usually not even within 20-30 points of Fetterman, so there was never any doubt as to who the winner would be and the puppetmasters could afford to let the voters appear to "decide" that election. It's more of the same in 2024, where Democrats have once again cleared the field in every primary election where it matters, while Republicans still regularly wage war against each other in their primaries. On the GOP side the primary winner is often mortally wounded heading into the general election, and the RINOs refuse to unite with the conservatives whenever the primary voters have the temerity to select the less liberal candidate. In no state were liberal manipulations of GOP primaries more blatant than in Colorado in 2022. Democrats, often uniting with anti-conservative Republicans, spent inordinate amounts of money to get their way. In CD-3 in 2022, Democrats pulled out all the stops to either defeat or severely injure Lauren Boebert in her primary election against RINO Don Coram. They failed to defeat her at that time, but they were able to inflict sufficient damage which -- combined with the vast amount spent by liberal Aspen Democrat Adam Frisch, including over $2 million of his own money -- almost got the job done in November. Boebert narrowly escaped with a 50.1% to 49.9% win. Frisch spent over $6 million in all in 2022, which is chump change compared to what he and the Rats are spending in one more attempt to buy this congressional seat in 2024. Though failing in CD-3 in 2022, Democrats did get the outcomes they wanted in the more important Governor and Senate elections in Colorado, not to mention the really important Secretary of State election. Though it is not clear why they felt the need to go to so much trouble influencing Republican primaries for offices which the Democrats were always highly likely to win regardless of who the GOP nominee turned out to be. In the gubernatorial and senatorial Republican primary races, big-money Democrats funneled lots of $$$$ to the more conservative GOP candidates with the idea that they would be easier to defeat in a general election. The conservative who was running for Governor, Greg Lopez, was defeated in that primary by liberal Republican Heidi Ganahl, who was obliterated by almost 20 points by the incumbent Democrat rump-ranger in November. Lopez was elected to Congress last week in the special election in Colorado's 4th congressional district. His tenure in the House will be brief, as he did not choose to run for the full term which begins in 2025. In the 2022 GOP Senate primary, the puppetmasters feared squishy Republican Joe O'Dea and tried to boost Ron Hanks -- the same Ron Hanks who ran in the 2024 primary in CD-3. Once again the string-pullers failed to drag the conservative across the finish line, but they need not have feared O'Dea -- he lost by over two touchdowns in November to the incumbent liberal Democrat. But not before those same puppetmasters invested over $16 million dollars in "independent" expenditures against O'Dea; O'Dea himself was only able to raise $10 million altogether and $4 million of that came out of his own pocket. He never had a chance, though GOP leaders talked bravely (and stupidly) about supporting him with money -- however little that amount was, it would have been much better spent on Senate races practically anywhere else, like Georgia, Arizona or Pennsylvania. The biggest liberal coup of all in Colorado in 2022 was capturing the vital Secretary of State office, which is the office in charge of counting votes and abetting Democrat vote fraud (and helping persecute those who call it out). The GOP primary in that race was quite mysterious: How Did A Zuckerberg Charity Stooge Win A GOP Primary In Colorado? Subtitle: "Pam Anderson won a race with no money and very few visible voters". Photo credit: NY Post
On June 25, Jamaal "Fire Chief" Bowman (D-NY) was soundly defeated in the Democrat primary in New York's 16th congressional district by Westchester County executive George Latimer (D-Israel). Bowman thus becomes the first member of the radical leftist Democrat coven known as "The Squad" to be defeated in a re-election bid.
Fire Chief Bowman falsely claimed that he turned in the alarm because he was trying to open emergency doors so he could hustle to the important vote which was taking place elsewhere in the Capitol building -- a phony fire alarm is more dangerous than any alleged "crime" committed by the J6 political prisoners. Bowman was facing a six-month jail term for this stunt, but charges were quickly dropped by Washington D.C. authorities (go figure). The House Ethics Committee, which is led by GOP milquetoasts, also immediately declined to recommend any punishment for Bowman. New York's 16th district was rated by Charlie Cook as D+25 in 2020 and D+20 after redistricting reduced the Bronx portion of the district to practically nothing; CD-16 is now contained almost entirely (~95%) within suburban Westchester County and remains utterly safe for Democrats. The new Democrat congressman from CD-16 will be just as liberal as Bowman, so don't expect any improvement there; he probably won't be as obnoxious, though. Westchester County, NY
People who get their demographic information from television sitcom reruns may believe that Westchester County is a bastion of upscale White Republicans in a bucolic setting of well-manicured lawns and endless golf courses. To them, it must be confusing that such an area would have elected and then re-elected a black racist who is one of the most far-left Democrats in the entire House.
Photo credit: Bettmann Archive
In the early 1960's, Hollywood ultra-liberal Carl Reiner placed the main character's home in New Rochelle in "The Dick Van Dyke Show". A decade later, Hollywood ultra-liberal Norman Lear created a spinoff of "All in the Family" based around the strident liberal character of Maude Findlay. The show, called "Maude", was set in the village of Tuckahoe. Photo credit: YouTube
When Rob and Laura Petrie and their son Richie were living in Westchester County in their early 60's sitcom world, the county was over 90% White and gladly voted for Republicans -- albeit liberal Republicans. Westchester's influence in New York elections peaked in Maude's 1970's, at which time demographic deterioration was picking up speed as refugees from New York City invaded in larger numbers. This naturally caused many of the good people of the county to flee to more distant places such as the Hudson Valley, further Upstate, or Florida, the mass exodus serving to push Westchester further left.
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Virginia
Colorado
New York
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6/13/2024: This Week's Primaries; Meltdown in Maine; The Last Sane Senate Democrat? [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: WFMJ
Although Republican Michael Rulli easily won (54.6% to 45.3%) Tuesday's special election in Ohio's 6th congressional district over Democrat Michael Kripchak, media liberals are gloating about the Democrat's "moral victory", which is something they do in every special election where their candidate isn't completely blown out of the water by the voters.
Photo credit: Nancy Mace/Youtube, Getty Images
Nancy Mace 1, Kevin McCarthy 0: In South Carolina, embattled Nancy Mace had an easier than expected time defeating Catherine Templeton, who was a sock puppet for disgraced ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Mace received approximately 57% of the Republican primary vote and thus easily avoided the runoff election which would have been necessary if she had failed to achieve 50%.
C.I.V.O. -- "Conservative In Voting Only": Elsewhere in the Palmetto State on Tuesday, incumbent Republican William Timmons in CD-4 (Greenville/Spartanburg) barely survived a primary challenge from his right, just as he had barely survived a similar but less focused threat two years earlier. In this heavily Republican district, a primary win is often tantamount to election because Democrats either do not field any candidate at all, or they make only the smallest token effort. Timmons, now completing his third term in Congress, has displayed conservative tendencies when voting on legislation. The American Conservative Union gives Timmons a lifetime rating of over 90% and he toes the party line (such as that party line sometimes is) at least 95% of the time; he cannot technically be called a "RINO". On the other hand, there is more to a congressman than how he votes. Given his vastly underwhelming performance in primary elections lately, it is clear that Timmons has done something to annoy a sizable portion of his party's base. Among other reasons for annoyance, Timmons is definitely not a "fighter" for conservative causes. Timmons was a staunch supporter of disgraced ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and, as a go-along-to-get-along type, would hardly be uncomfortable as a Republican back-bencher in a Democrat-controlled House. Which is something he may well get to see first-hand in 2025. Timmons has rejected calls to join the House Freedom Caucus, that "far-right" group of conservatives who dare to try to influence legislation (gasp!); they also try to influence the moderate House leadership, of which they comprise no part. In order to avert retaliation (which shows you how the GOPe works) the membership list of the House Freedom Caucus is never disclosed. Timmons proudly declares that he is not now nor has he ever been a member of that group, and he also complains that the Caucus is a hindrance to getting certain (liberal) legislation through the House. Timmons has some other issues (extramarital affairs, support for racist DEI crap) which bolster the assertion that he is not worthy of re-election. In this year's CD-4 primary, unabashed Freedom Caucus member Matt Gaetz of Florida threw his support behind conservative state legislator Adam Morgan; Donald Trump, in an action so typical as to practically be mandatory, threw his support behind the wimpy incumbent even though there was no risk whatsoever of the conservative Morgan losing to a Democrat in November. [The same thing applied in the North Dakota U.S. House race, where Trump bypassed solid conservative Rich Becker in order to endorse a likely RINO in a district which had no incumbent running -- and, like in SC-4, no viable Democrat opposition in November either.] The South Carolina squish eked out a win on Tuesday, with 51.6% to 48.4% for Morgan. Timmons raised and spent nearly $2 million, although $900,000 of that came from a loan which Timmons was able to make to his campaign. Morgan actually outraised the incumbent swamp critter in terms of individual mom-n-pop type contributions, while Timmons had much greater support from the political/corporate sector, and his own bank account. Photo credit: Alchetron
The focus in Maine was on the winnable second congressional district which has been held by Democrat Jared Golden since his surprising "Rigged Choice Voting" victory in 2018. Maine voters (mostly Democrats) had just approved a ballot initiative implementing the RCV scheme which took effect in 2018, and those Democrats were delighted when Golden defeated incumbent moderate Republican Bruce Poliquin thanks solely to the provisions of Rigged Choice Voting; without that, Poliquin was the winner.
Andrews' "resignation" was merely symbolic and utterly meaningless seeing as how the Maine legislature has already adjourned for the year and Andrews was not running for re-election anyway. He did not elaborate on what the real problem was here, but it's probably spelled T-r-u-m-p. However, like Soboleski, Andrews is also normally a conservative and his voting record backed up that description. It is therefore possible that Trump wasn't the main point of contention. In every story about this 27,000 square-mile district, the liberal media makes sure to note that it was once the site of a "mass shooting"; Theriault is a supporter of the Second Amendment, which according to the media (and probably John Andrews) makes Theriault somehow personally responsible for that massacre. Golden's financial advantages and his experience with manipulating the voters of the second district will be difficult to overcome, but the GOP has put this House seat at or near the top of its list of potential pickups, and for good reason. An R+6 district is likely to come to its senses sooner or later, and 2024 may be the year that happens. Photo credit: New York Times
In the Senate primary in Nevada, Trump-anointed Sam Brown, a moderate Republican, breezed past conservative challenger Jeff Gunter. Gunter was appointed as Ambassador to Iceland by Trump, but the ex-President typically opted for the "electable" moderate in this race instead of the true conservative. Pre-primary polls had indicated a potentially close finish between Brown and Gunter, but the current figures show 59.8% for Brown and only 15.1% for runner-up Gunter.
Photo credit: Gateway Pundit
Speaking of squishy (or far worse) Senators: Lately we have been subjected to numerous articles in the "right-wing" media which have awarded Strange New Respect to drooling Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman. Fetterman, of course, is the combination of the characters of Lurch and Uncle Fester from the old Addams Family television show, and this cartoon character has been a U.S. Senator since defeating Electable Dr. Oz in 2022.
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Ohio
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Maine
Lurch / Uncle Fester
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6/10/2024: [South Carolina] Who Are You, and What Have You Done With Nancy Mace? [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Three high-profile primaries in U.S. House districts will be held tomorrow in South Carolina. In solidly Republican CD-3 (Anderson and the northwest portion of the state), seven candidates are vying to replace 7-term conservative Jeff Duncan, who is retiring rather than face a campaign that would feature nasty (and unproven) allegations from his vindictive soon-to-be ex-wife. In solidly Republican CD-4 (Greenville/Spartanburg) Trump-supported incumbent William Timmons is facing conservative state legislator Adam Morgan, who is being boosted by outspoken conservative congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida. Timmons had no Democrat opposition in 2022 but he achieved only 52.7% in a four-way primary that year, and this one could be close too.
The Charleston-based district has been quite volatile politically in recent years. When the voters of this district sent Republican Mark Sanford back to Congress for a second stint in a 2013 special election, it appeared that they had forgiven him for his erratic behavior including (but not limited to) his Kennedy-esque extramarital affairs, his sudden unexplained disappearance while Governor in 2009, and his surprising reappearance in Argentina several days later. Sanford compiled a generally conservative record throughout most of that second stint in the House. In 2018 however, Sanford split with President Trump and ran shrieking to the left, opposing Trump on nearly 50% of his House votes that year. Trump endorsed Katie Arrington, a mostly moderate state legislator, in the 2018 GOP primary against Sanford. Arrington won that primary by the margin of 50.6% to 46.5%, narrowly averting a runoff. In the 2018 general election, Cunningham and the Democrats outstpent Arrington by 50%, while the GOP establishment abandoned Arrington when they weren't busy knifing her in the back; she had to finance a significant portion of her own campaign. Arrington lost by just over 1% in November. Arrington would be heard from again, but not in 2020 when the Republicans united behind Nancy Mace. Mace, who had compiled a moderate-to-slightly-conservative record during her three years in the SC state House, recaptured CD-1 for the Republicans by about the same narrow margin which Arrington had lost it two years earlier. The Democrats spent over $7 million trying to keep Cunningham in office, plus another $6 million in "independent" expenditures opposing Mace. But the GOP fought back and was able to compete on almost equal financial footing in the 2020 campaign. Mace evicted Cunningham from the House even as Trump's margin in CD-1 was falling from 13% in 2016 to only 6% in 2020. CD-1 was redistricted to be slightly more Republican after 2020, a pertinent factor which will be addressed below. Mace was no conservative during her first three years in Congress, and she became a self-appointed poster child for her wing of the GOP. She regularly ran to the liberal media and criticized her conservative colleagues, and others on the right, for their attacks on "RINOs" and she warned that such attacks would severely damage the party at the polls. Mace, who according to her bio played a substantial role in the Trump campaign in 2016 in South Carolina, eventually broke with the former President. It didn't help matters when she said Trump was "accountable" for the so-called "attack" on the U.S. Capitol building on January 6, 2021. In the 2022 Republican primary, Trump and the conservatives threw their weight behind Arrington, who was making her second bid for the CD-1 seat. The right did claim a scalp in the 2022 South Carolina primary, that of Trump impeachment RINO Tom Rice in CD-7, but Mace survived without a runoff when Arrington came up several points short. Democrats only tepidly contested this seat in November of 2022, and Mace easily won the R+7 district. As recently as last year Mace was still being her usual irritating moderate self.... and then something odd happened. Photo credit: J. Scott Applewhite / Associated Press
In October of 2023 Mace was part of a small cabal of GOP representatives who voted to remove Assistant Democrat Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. Who knew at the time that Mike "Pence" Johnson would be just as craven and cowardly?
Nobody is suggesting that a politician who sticks her finger into the wind and changes course accordingly is to be respected or trusted. But that's not what Nancy Mace did here, opinions of the haters notwithstanding. We mentioned redistricting earlier in this commentary. For all of 2023 and most of 2024 there was every reason to believe that Mace's district would be altered again and moved sharply to the left, in a racist effort to favor Democrats. Her move to the right under those circumstances would hardly constitute "blowing with the wind". If anything, in order to be re-elected she would need to run away from anything resembling conservatism in order to attract Democrat votes. Only a few short weeks ago did Mace get a reprieve. On May 23 the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the arguments of the professional racists at the NAACP. They ruled that South Carolina does not need to redistrict again and gerrymander Mace's congressional district to make it solidly Democrat. We not only need more conservatives in Congress, we need more conservative fighters. Mace has always been aggressive, and now that she is finally fighting the GOOD fight, we strongly support her re-election bid and all conservatives should do so as well. Addendum: Mace's main financial opposition -- to the tune of 2 million dollars for the June 11 primary alone -- is something called "South Carolina Patriots PAC" which just sprung into existence a few months ago for the express purpose of torpedoing Mace. It has contributed to no other races in the state, or anywhere else. It's being funded by McCarthy's millionaire allies in order to give the coward some "plausible deniability". McCarthy has apparently only contributed a token amount of the money he bilked his own contributors out of, for the alleged purpose of financing his own re-election which of course isn't happening. If you like dark-money GOP establishment RINO puppets, you'll love Catherine Templeton. Tags:
2024
U.S. House
South Carolina
People DO Change
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6/6/2024: Incumbent House Democrats: Running Scared or Just Faking Toward the Center? [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
It's both, but mainly the latter.
Now we are in an election year, and even though most voters don't have any clue who their representative in Congress is until they see an election ballot -- and they certainly have no idea how that congressman votes -- incumbents are wary of their congressional voting record being used against them in the campaign, and so they often try to "moderate" their record to avoid accusations of extremism. The vast majority of the time, it is Republicans who must be the most wary and who do the most moderating. The liberal media, and of course Democrat candidates and RINOs who are running to an incumbent's left in a primary, will gladly use whatever ammunition is available against a conservative. It is a rare case that a liberal Democrat -- even in the most marginal of districts -- must concern herself even slightly about charges of being "too liberal". That is true in nearly all election years. But apparently not 2024. Our analysis of congressional voting data from Voteview which runs through May 23 shows that numerous Democrats are the ones who are panicking and running hysterically towards the center, while even the squishiest House Republicans suddenly have grown at least a small amount of backbone and are standing united most of the time. This behavior, on both sides, is unprecedented in recent years. With all of these "moderate" Democrats voting alongside the solid Republican majority so frequently, why isn't more conservative legislation becoming law? There are at least two reasons. First, these Democrat defections are carefully metered by the party leadership. A certain group of panicky Democrats is permitted to leave the plantation on a particular vote, then a different group is given temporary freedom on a subsequent vote, and so on. No specific bill which is repugnant to liberals has any landslide vote in favor of it. Secondly, even if one does slip past them in the House, the Democrats still have their firewall in the Senate where any conservative bill is D.O.A. Despite only 49 actual Democrats plus two alleged independents, Angus King & Kyrsten Sinema, they effectively have at least 53 fairly solid votes (see below) against any legislation that could be remotely described as conservative. So these center-fakes are basically a no-risk venture from the perspective of the liberal Democrat House leadership, and there is a significant benefit to playing the voting equivalent of Three-Card Monte: the supposedly endangered House Democrats get vital "moderate cred" for these carefully choreographed votes, which they can use to deflect accusations of ultra-liberalism that may arise on the campaign trail. No vulnerable Democrat wants to hear her Republican opponent declare "She voted with Hakeem Jeffries 94% of the time!" during a debate or at any other time during a campaign. These tactical departures from lockstep Democrat voting are meant to defuse such allegations and to create the illusion of independence from the unpopular liberal leadership. In 2024 five Democrats have been voting nearly as much (over 40%) with Republicans on Party Unity votes than they vote with their own party. Another 22 Democrats have been allowed to leave the plantation at least 25% of the time. Twenty-five percent may not sound like a lot, but for Democrats in recent years it is a ton. In 2023 only one Democrat (Jared Golden) rather than 27 reached that threshold of permissible disobedience. In 2022, the last time these people had to face the voters, Democrats were as united as ever with not even one of them dissenting from party orthodoxy as much as 20% of the time. In 2024, fully 48 Democrats have exceeded that figure so far. The fact that they feel the need to fake to the center so often is an indication that panic is setting in. The column titled "% GOP" in the table below is the percentage of the time so far in 2024 that the Democrat representative has voted with the Republicans on Party Unity votes. Freshmen are shown in italics; the first re-election bid is normally the toughest.
Notes:
Photo credit: ABC News
There is no such phenomena in the Senate of Democrats feeling the need to fake to the center. The most (allegedly) endangered Senate Democrats are remaining on the far left, and not even glancing toward the center much less moving in that direction. Their scores on Party Unity votes:
Photo credit: womenzmag.com
On the other hand, the usual Republican suspects -- who are not even up for re-election this year so we're stuck with them -- are still cheerfully voting with the Democrats and against their own party a significant portion of the time:
Even if the Republicans regain numerical control of the Senate as a result of November's elections (they need only a Trump win or one additional victory besides West Virginia in a Senate race), who can possibly believe the GOP will have actual control with traitors like Collins and Murkowski in their ranks? If necessary, one or both of those desiccated crones may bolt the party and claim to be Independent in order to stop Republicans from having even numerical control. Even the execrable Mitt Romney, who is retiring after 2024 and undoubtedly wishes to end his political career in a blaze of anti-conservative glory, only votes with the Democrats 24% of the time so far this year. The Democrat analog to Romney is Joe Manchin, who recently announced his departure from the Democrat party to become an independent. Like Romney and fellow "independent" Kyrsten Sinema, Manchin is never going to face the voters of his state again and can therefore follow his conscience from here on out. Be that as it may, Manchin's conscience is still somewhere around 75% liberal, and he still has to answer to the party masters who will not appreciate his defection on any bills which are truly important to them. The comparison of Manchin to Romney is not completely appropriate though both enjoy the notoriety they sometimes receive for being a thorn in the side of their respective parties. Manchin, unlike Romney, is not a regular visitor to liberal media opinion programs (sometimes disguised as "news") to trash his own party whenever possible. Romney's propaganda value to the left is far greater than his mere voting record in the Senate; Manchin is also a whore for publicity, but his damage to the Democrat party has always been minimal and that's not going to change despite the fact that he has altered his party label for his final few months in office. Conclusion: Although House Democrats appear to be running scared it's likely just so much political theater. Nearly all of the most vulnerable ones still have sizable money, organizational and of course media advantages over their GOP challengers. On the flip side, the numerous vulnerable Republican House incumbents may be sticking together in terms of votes in Congress, but their chances for re-election will be determined more by money and voter turnout and factors which affect that (such as election "integrity") than those votes in the House. In many instances, that's not a happy prospect. Tags:
2024
U.S. House
Scared Democrats?
Fakers
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5/16/2024: Mid-May Primary Wrap-Up [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: Mike Braun For Indiana
In the state of Indiana on May 7, the Republican primaries all went as expected although one outcome was successfully influenced by a considerable amount of out-of-state money being spent by single-issue groups in order to defeat a certain GOP candidate.
Photo credit: AIPAC
In CD-8, ex-Congressman John Hostettler was trying to reclaim the seat he lost 18 years ago. Hostettler wasn't exactly a paragon of arch-conservatism during his time in Washington, but he was OK and he'd be better than state Senator Mark Messmer who at one time was a conservative but is now a total squish. Hostettler was branded as "anti-Jewish" and was opposed by the extremely wealthy Israel Lobby (groups such as the "Republican Jewish Coalition" and "United Democracy Project"). Over $2 million of their money went into this single U.S. House primary with the goal of electing the more liberal Republican. Messmer won with nearly 40% of the vote while Hostettler (who was endorsed by Rand Paul and Charlie Kirk) came up just short of 20% in the field of eight. Money talks, and in this contest it absolutely shrieked. One wonders just how much these particular special interest groups are spending to oust anti-Israel Democrats from Congress; there aren't any shortage of those, but these groups seem to be giving them a free pass.
In Maryland on May 14, liberal women swept the Democrat primaries for open seats in the U.S. Senate and House districts 3 and 6. We've already profiled the Senate contest, and as far as House races only the primary in CD-6 was of any significant interest to Republicans; it's their one slim chance of picking up a Democrat-held House seat in Maryland, where liberals currently occupy 7 of the 8 districts thanks in at least a couple of cases to hyper-partisan Democrat gerrymandering. CD-6 is the most gerrymandered of them all.
Photo credit: bacon.house.gov
Nebraska: the state-level GOP organization which, according to surely unbiased media reports, "was taken over by those loyal to former President Donald Trump during a contentious state convention" -- that happened back in 2022 -- decided to oppose (or ignore) all 5 of the Republican incumbents who were running for federal office. This is quite good since pretty much all 5 incumbents are squishes, but unfortunately the tactic proved to be utterly ineffective. For one thing, actions (especially $$$) speak far louder than words, and these were only words; the conservative challengers collectively had about $1.50 to work with here. Also, making the announcement regarding endorsements just moments before the voters had to head to the polls was a great way to make sure that as few people as possible got the message.
The NEGOP made no endorsement in the races involving Fischer and Flood, and they endorsed challengers to Ricketts, Bacon and Smith. All 5 incumbents did face primary opposition -- such as it was.
Photo credit: National Review
West Virginia, where energetic conservative Senate candidate Alex Mooney was swamped by doddering moderate Governor Jim Justice in Tuesday's Senate primary as was expected. "Terrifying and loathsome" is pretty much how the GOPe would describe Mooney. We'd describe him as "conservative". The GOPe would agree, and that's their main problem with the 5-term congressman.
It's fashionable for liberal elitists to refer to West Virginians using words like "hillbilly" and "inbred" because, to them, hatred of White people is always acceptable. Though we reject their racism, it must be conceded that West Virginia politics does sometimes have a certain inbred-type quality to it: In the CD-1 Republican primary, it was incumbent Carol Miller vs. former J6 political prisoner ("rioter", in biased liberal media parlance) Derrick Evans, age 39, who was briefly a state legislator before being forced to vacate the premises after his politically-motivated conviction in 2021. Miller, who won this primary with 63% of the vote, is a geriatric 73-year-old moderate currently in her third term in the House. She is the daughter of former conservative Ohio congressman Samuel Devine who was in Congress from 1959-1982. Miller's son, a car dealer by trade, was looking to extend the family's political dynasty by becoming Governor. However Chris Miller finished in third place in the 2024 GOP primary with about 20% of the vote and his political career is likely stillborn. Arch Moore, a moderate Republican like Jim Justice and Carol Miller, many moons ago had a long and legendary political career including 6 terms in the U.S. House and two distinct stints as Governor (he ran 5 times and won 3). Moore was first elected to office in 1952 and last ran in 1988 when he lost his bid for a fourth term as Governor. His daughter, Shelley Moore Capito, is a moderate-liberal Senate Republican and has been in Congress for nearly a quarter-century since being first elected to the House in 2000 in an upset victory over a megabucks Democrat trial lawyer who outspent her by a 6:1 margin. Justice's imminent elevation to the Senate in November will ensure that this solidly Republican state has two Republicans -- but no conservatives -- in that body for the first time since 1958. The last time West Virginia had two elected (as opposed to appointed) Republicans in the U.S. Senate was 93 years ago. Capito's son, former state legislator Moore Capito, ran for Governor this year and came in second to state Attorney General and former Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey in the GOP primary. The younger Capito compiled a somewhat conservative record as a member of the state House of Delegates from 2016-2023. Shelley Capito's nephew, state Treasurer Riley Moore (the true conservative politician in the family), won the 5-way primary to replace Alex Mooney in the U.S. House. After he wins the general election easily in November, it remains to be seen whether his voting record will be as conservative as expected. There's a good chance that he will at least start out that way, as many freshmen GOP legislators do. Tags:
2024
Indiana
Nebraska
West Virginia
Maryland
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5/15/2024: [Maryland] Hogan Wins Senate Primary Easily; Next Race Will Be His Toughest [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: AP Photo/Susan Walsh
As expected, there was no drama in the Republican Senate primary, where former Governor Larry Hogan won the low-turnout contest by over 30 percentage points. The stakes were higher on the Democrat side, where ultra-liberal billionaire congressman David Trone, who represents western Maryland, faced ultra-liberal county executive Angela Alsobrooks, who hails from the deep, dark jungle of Prince George's County.
Photo credit: wamu.org
Hogan, from the staunch liberal wing of the Republican party, was extremely popular in Maryland during his two terms as Governor. Democrats were as thoroughly satisfied with Hogan as Republicans were, and they made only the most token effort to oppose his re-election bid in 2018. At his election-night victory party that year, Hogan predictably gloated about how his liberalism (as opposed to Democrat apathy) had enabled him to overcome 2018's anti-Trump "blue wave". He was at least partially correct.
General election polls regarding the Senate race in Maryland have been varied but are trending to the left lately even during the supposedly acrimonious Democrat primary. The polls started out by claiming that Governor Hogan was in the lead, however surveys taken this month have shown him with a considerable deficit against either potential Democrat nominee. The recent results are hardly surprising, given that Maryland is a state in which Democrats + liberal-leaning "independents" comprise two-thirds of the electorate, if not more. As the general election campaign unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the Democrats will bother to campaign on issues of actual concern to the majority of voters, or if they'll merely stick to appeals to racism (it seems to have worked in their primary) and -- of course -- "aborshun, aborshun, aborshun!" Hogan violates liberal orthodoxy by not being in favor of 100% unlimited taxpayer-funded abortion on demand. Even without looking at future polls, you will be able to determine the likely outcome of this race just by observing the evolution of the prominent campaign topics and the candidates' positions on the issues. When you see Hogan abandoning what few non-liberal positions he holds in order to run shrieking hysterically to the left, while Alsobrooks makes absolutely no pretense at moderation, that will tell you everything you need to know about how November is going to go in Maryland. OTOH, if you see the Democrats in a panic and feeling the need to fake towards the center, then things may be quite interesting here (don't hold your breath). With West Virginia's Senate seat certain to flip to the GOP, and potential if not actually probable pickups in Ohio and Montana and perhaps some other pipe-dreams if a 1994-style "red" wave occurs, the Democrats cannot afford to lose a seat in an utterly safe state like Maryland. It's highly likely that they won't lose it. In their desperation for continued liberal Senate control, the professional prognosticators (most of whom should themselves be rated as "Lean Democrat" or "Likely Democrat") are keeping this race pretty solidly in the D column for November. You should too, but it's still a long way to November. [May 21 update: It sure didn't take long for what we predicted three paragraphs ago to come true. "Maryland Republican Senate Candidate Larry Hogan Vows to Codify Roe Protections". Pandering never works for Republicans. It gains no votes from the left and loses votes on the right, which seems like an odd way to run a campaign -- if you're trying to win.] Tags:
2024
Senate
Maryland
Hogan
Competitive or pipe dream?
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4/24/2024: [Pennsylvania] 2024 Primary Election Recap [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here is a review of everything important which happened in the Pennsylvania primaries yesterday. Photo credit: Philadelphia Inquirer / Patel campaign
The highest-profile Democrat primary in PA took place in the Democrat-gerrymandered 12th congressional district, where terrorist-supporting liberal racist Summer Lee was challenged by a slightly less liberal racist Democrat named Bhavini Patel. Lee didn't bother to campaign much at all (and now we know why) but Patel did. Aside from a minor disagreement on the subject of Israel, Patel tried to stress to her potential primary voters that she was just as hate-filled toward all the "right" things as Lee is. Despite her somnambulant campaign, Lee still outspent Patel by nearly 3:1 according to FEC data from early April, and won by about 20 points. Photo credit: Bill Kalina, The York Dispatch That is Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district -- the reprehensible shithole of Harrisburg, the city of York which isn't a whole lot better, and formerly-nice but rapidly deteriorating Cumberland County in between -- where liberal candidates were crawling over each other in their attempt to be "king of the hill" in the Democrat primary and have the honor of taking on embattled conservative Scott Perry in November. CD-10 contains enough good suburban and rural territory that it counterbalances the Harrisburg and York ghetto vote and the liberal college punkie vote in Carlisle -- but the balance is precarious and getting less favorable every day. The district was heavily gerrymandered by the Pennsylvania Democrat Supreme Court when it trashed the state's entire district map in 2018, and a specific effort was made to "get" Perry from that point forward. He has managed to survive despite that effort, sometimes just barely. Democrats are going all-out this year and will spend as much as it takes; on the other hand Perry has relatively little cash on hand for such a well-entrenched and threatened incumbent. Perry's status in Congress is unique in one respect -- east of Ohio and north of the Mason-Dixon line there is exactly one conservative Republican in the U.S. House: Scott Perry. An unabashed Trump supporter in addition to his reliable conservatism, Perry routinely causes crazed liberals to foam at the mouth. And not just liberals in the Democrat party; the liberal (money-controlling) wing of the GOP is no fan of Perry either, and there is only scant evidence of the party's support for Perry in 2024 so far. Perry faced no primary opposition, which is good since he can hardly afford it. The winner of the Rat primary was, as expected, Janelle Stelson, a "bubble headed bleach blonde" talking head from a local Harrisburg TV station. Stelson wasn't quite the wealthiest Democrat running in the primary field of 6; that was Mike O'Brien, a left-winger claiming to be a "patriot" who ran on his military record. O'Brien was trounced by nearly a 2:1 margin, finishing a distant second. This was always the likeliest outcome; in recent years the Democrat primary electorate nearly always adheres to the diktats of political correctness. Given two candidates with similar leftist credentials and the same mandatory hatreds, female always outranks male, black always outranks White, etc. Sorry, Mikey. If you're not openly gay or a transvestite (and maybe even if you are), you're second-class here. In any event, the only patriot who was ever in this race is Scott Perry, and he's going to need a lot of help to not only overcome the usual Democrat $$$ advantages, but also to get his message out and overcome the relentlessly negative/biased media coverage from Stelson's allies in the Harrisburg, York and Carlisle areas. Along with the national media, which has made it a priority to help the Democrats pick up this House seat. Unlike Pennsylvania's CD-12 which is a pipe dream for the GOP, this district really is a battleground and there are at least 20 others just like it nationwide. These districts have Republican incumbents who are running for re-election, and who are in for the fight of their lives. Some ignorant observers believe that the supposed plethora of open Republican seats will be the ones which are going to be lost and therefore would be the districts responsible for the upcoming loss of House control. That is patently false. Control of the House will be decided first and foremost in these battleground districts rather than the open GOP districts, and both parties know it. The Democrats clearly do, as evidenced by all of the money being funneled into them. Further down the ballot at the state legislative level, there was some good news for both parties. In House District 50, GOP incumbent Bud Cook fended off a challenge from Stephanie Waggett. Cook, a mostly conservative representative, was accused of "having a problem with how he treats women" so Waggett changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican to oppose Cook. She appears to have lost by a wide margin, and the Democrats did not run a candidate in this GOP-leaning district. In the extremely solid 80th District, incumbent moderate Republican Jim Gregory was defeated. Gregory crawled into bed with Democrats in 2023 to thwart legislation which would have enhanced desperately-needed election integrity measures in PA by requiring voter ID. The GOP primary race in the 117th District (Wilkes-Barre suburbs) is still too close to call, but incumbent liberal Republican Michael Cabell was trailing by a very small amount on the morning after the primary. Cabell raised over 5 times as much money as his challenger but hopefully will end up losing anyway. Photo credit: glensidelocal.com But the biggest winners at the state House level were the Democrats, who audibly sighed with relief at the results of the district 172 primary, in which mentally diseased liberal representative Kevin Boyle was running for re-election. In 2021, Boyle was arrested on charges of harassment and violating a protection from abuse (PFA) order. Two months ago, Boyle was drunk off his overprivileged ass in a Philadelphia bar shortly after midnight and played the "don't you know who the f--- I am?!?" card (a direct quote, actually) when asked nicely to leave. This servant of the people then threatened to use his political influence to have the bar closed forever and threatened to assault the female employees. He emerged from that episode unscathed in exactly the same way that no Republican ever would, but just as the limited furor over that incident had passed, a warrant was issued for Boyle's arrest for violating his PFA. According to an article posted on the "PA Townhall.com" website, the warrant came following "weeks of escalating public outbursts from the state lawmaker, whose deteriorating mental state forced Democratic leadership to rescind his committee chairmanship". Democrats have allowed Boyle to vote remotely on legislation despite his status as a fugitive. Boyle's vote is important given the narrow 102-100 margin the Rats have recently had in the PA House. [The margin is now 102-101 after the GOP easily won a special election yesterday in the 139th District, making Boyle's continued participation from his undisclosed hideout even more critical to Democrats.] Like any other arrogant Democrat politician/criminal, Boyle figures he's above the law. And he has good reason to think so -- because he is. Not only is nothing happening regarding his alcohol-fueled activities from February, but just one day before the primary, hyper-partisan Democrat Philly D.A. Larry Krasner suddenly withdrew the arrest warrant which had been issued on Boyle. The D.A. lamely asserted that there was a "piece missing" in the case, that piece apparently being the fact that Boyle is not a Republican. Which means the two-tiered "justice" system works in his favor instead of against him, as Dirty Larry has ensured. Boyle still lost yesterday, as most Democrats hoped he would. If he hadn't, Republicans would've been handed a golden opportunity to pick up the seat in November. District 172 should be at least somewhat marginal, but it normally favors Democrats pretty heavily these days. If Boyle had won, his own party was preparing to create a law which would allow them to expel him; then there would have been a quickie special election, a new Democrat elected in Boyle's place, and the seat would have been salvaged for November. This was the same logic which impelled the Republicans to eject conservative freshman George Santos from the U.S. House, but the Stupid Party neglected to take into account the leftward lean of Santos' district and the major funding advantage Democrats always have in competitive districts, and so they threw away the seat needlessly. But at least they got rid of a conservative, so it wasn't a total loss for the RINOs! Tags: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3/29/2024: [Texas] The 2024 Senate Race Has Been Called! [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Photo credit: ABC News (from 6 years ago, so don't get excited)
Of course it's really quite far from being over, but not according to some rando with a blog which gets posted on a site called "American Thinker". Not deep thinkers apparently, but at least they are hopeful ones and they're on the right side.
There is no reason to presume that a positive outcome here is guaranteed, and subsequent polls will definitely "confirm" that, however there are some good reasons to believe that Cruz will be re-elected: this is a presidential election year and Trump's presence on the ballot will help Cruz, unlike in the 2018 midterm when Cruz only narrowly defeated another Democrat celebutard; Allred is of course a media darling but he's a completely dim bulb; and it's hard to imagine so many tickets being split that Trump wins Texas but Cruz loses it. On the other hand, nobody can doubt that Texas is a rapidly "purpling" state (going from true blue towards commie red). This is not a recent development and has been apparent for quite some time. However what is a recent development is the increased mass invasion of Democrat voters from south of the border. The impact of that is not yet baked into political outcomes, but by November it may well be. Texas is being invaded from every direction and not just from the south, taking in refugees from all other states but particularly ones such as California, New York, Illinois, etc. which have been destroyed by a long period of thoroughly incompetent and corrupt one-party Democrat rule. Not all invaders are liberals, but the numbers strongly suggest that a majority of them are. Below is a table which shows the number of registered voters back to 2022 along with the most recent available data for 2024 for the most populous counties in the Lone Star State. Texas does not register voters by party so there is no way to determine how many of these new voters are Democrats, though some folks have methods to derive party-orientation estimates. However these are really just guesstimates and do not necessarily have a great deal of accuracy. The 12 counties in the table account for approximately 62% of all registered voters in the state. The good news is that the proportionate increase of new voters is the same statewide as it is in these dozen (mostly) leftward-trending counties, and that balance is important. At the present rate there will be a net gain of about three-quarters of a million voters in Texas by this November as compared to last November. That is a far greater increase than occurred between 2022 and 2023. But in a presidential election year, particularly one accompanied by an invasion, a larger number of registered voters is to be expected. Especially if the voter rolls are not periodically cleansed to get rid of ineligible and deceased voters.
* Projected The fastest-growing county on the list is the best one: Montgomery County, which for the time being retains a healthy Republican majority in all elections. It will continue to do so for many years to come, albeit with decreasing percentages. Rapid, massive growth is not always a good thing. When something grows rapidly inside a body it's called "cancer". Excessive growth in a good county or state always -- eventually -- has a cancerous effect too. Montgomery County has already absorbed too much detritus from adjacent Harris County (Houston) among other places, and its demographics are showing the strain. Its election results are beginning to show deterioration too; it's still very subtle at this time, but Montgomery County unquestionably has reached its peak. This doesn't mean that the county has gone insane and will begin electing Democrats anytime soon, just that its rightward motion has stopped and has begun to reverse. Montgomery County's future probably looks very much like Fort Bend County's present. It's an inviolable law of demographics that bad people always follow (and then drive out) the good people from desirable areas, until those areas are no longer desirable. Fortunately new good areas naturally arise, even farther away from the urban center. The cycle continues as, over time, the new areas are ruined as well. Like Montgomery County (except at a faster rate), the entire state of Texas has been "purpling", as anyone who actually takes the time to look can easily attest to. To see a bigger picture, we'll pull back and focus on metro areas rather than individual counties. The four metro areas which dominate the Texas landscape are:
These four areas accounted for 7,856,153 votes in the 2020 presidential election, which was 69.4% of all votes cast in the state of Texas. Trump got 3,670,374 of those votes (46.7%) and Biden received 4,056,573 (51.6%). The rest of the state outside these four urban and suburban areas gave Trump a massive 64.0% to 34.7% win. Here is the data for the 2016 presidential election:
Between 2016 and 2020 Trump went from narrowly winning the Big-4 (by 0.5%) to being demolished by 4.9%. The areas in Texas which are being invaded the heaviest -- not just via Mexico -- are the ones moving to the left the quickest. Furthermore, these urban/suburban areas increased their share of the state vote by nearly 2% (from 67.7% up to 69.4%) in 2020. Apparently turnout was relatively higher in these demographically-decaying areas than it was in the rest of Texas, or perhaps it was just easier in these urban localities for Democrat vote-counters to "find" more absentee/mail-in ballots in precincts they controlled. Either way. In the rest of Texas, Trump increased his winning margin from 26.8% to 29.3%. This dovetails with the assertion that Hispanics moved significantly towards Trump (but not necessarily all other Republicans) between 2016 and 2020. That assertion is only half-true, however. Rural Hispanics in Texas and in some other states did in fact move sharply to the right, a development which the tribe of media controllers has desperately suppressed in its (lack of) reporting since 2020. Urban and suburban Hispanics in Texas and elsewhere have shown no such rightward trend, or if they have it has been mostly inconsequential. In Texas as of 2022 there were 7,437,831 urban/suburban Hispanics in the four major metro areas out of a total of 12,068,549 Hispanics in the state -- over 61% reside in the metros. Yet they are "underrepresented" there. Texas as a whole was about 40% Hispanic, but the figure in the Big-4 was only 36.5%. In the entire rest of the state, Hispanics account for almost 50% (47.9% to be exact) of the population. Their swing to the right, even if just a temporary Trump-related phenomenon, is nice but the impact is muted by the far greater number of non-rural Hispanics who are still refusing to leave the Democrat plantation. The following tables illustrate the recent leftward lurch in the major metropolitan areas of Texas: Metro Dallas-Fort Worth:
Metro Houston:
Metro San Antonio:
Metro Austin:
Texas has voted GOP for president in every election since 1980. However as measured by its Republican presidential voting percentage as compared to the rest of the United States, it could be considered as truly "solid" blue (note proper color usage) from 1996 through 2012, based on voting around 10 points (or more) greater than the average for the GOP candidate in the country as a whole.
As of 2016 and 2020, the relative voting percentage for the GOP in presidential elections in Texas is back to where it was in the 1980's when it first flipped from Democrat to Republican. In 2020 that percentage actually declined relative to the U.S., despite the fact that rural Hispanics in Texas voted for the Party of Trump in record numbers. As of 2020 and even 2022, it's worth repeating that the dramatic Hispanic trend to the right has been very limited geographically; urban and suburban Hispanics -- in Texas or anywhere else -- are trending that direction only very slightly, if they are even moving rightward at all. Back to the future: Cruz should win the 2024 Senate election in Texas by about 5 points (plus or -- yes, possibly -- minus) and Trump should win by a little more than Cruz does. It's extremely unlikely that either one, especially Cruz, will get a 10-point margin like Greg Abbott (10.7% margin in 2022) or John Cornyn (9.6% margin in 2020) got last time they ran. It's no secret that the Rats are definitely going to lose the West Virginia Senate seat and might lose Ohio and/or Montana. Some pipe dreamers would add other states to that list. But even just flipping WV makes it a 50-50 Senate. A Trump win gives the Republicans control with the vice-president breaking the tie, depending of course on whether any liberal Republican Senate incumbents decide to bolt from the party. To digress briefly, we predicted back in 2022 that Sen. Lisa Murkowski would do exactly that if it had been necessary to deprive the Republicans of a Senate majority (it wasn't necessary, as things turned out) but now it appears that our prediction might come true a couple of years later. Don't rule out Sen. Susan Collins doing the same thing if it appears that President Trump would have a Senate that is under Republican control (oh noes!). Both of these dried-up old RINO hags are fully aware that they are in their final Senate terms and will never have to face the voters again. So 50-50 is the most realistic partisan breakdown in the Senate for 2025 as things stand now: the GOP goes +1 and maybe gets one or two more if things go unusually well in November. Texas is the one state where Democrats have any chance whatsoever of picking up a seat in the Senate. Does anyone really believe they aren't going to pull out all the stops to try to achieve that? The latest FEC reports still show the Democrat empty suit with more money to spend than the incumbent Republican. Cruz has raised a ton -- but has spent just about all of it (on what?). He'll get more, but he'll never catch Allred in terms of cash-on-hand unless he hoards all he's got and never spends it. It's not unusual at all for a Democrat to have more money to work with than a Republican. It is unusual for an incumbent Senator to trail in the financial department. The customary advantages that Democrats enjoy in all major statewide races (financial support, and across-the-board support from the "mainstream" media) still probably won't add up to a defeat for Ted Cruz this time around, but this mindless blogger chatter about some poll "confirming" that he "will" definitely win in November is extremely premature. Tags:
2024
Senate
Texas
Going Purple
Ted Cruz
3/13/2024:
[Ohio] If the presidential slate is set, will Ohio's GOP voters still show up for the U.S. Senate primary?
[Ohio Capital Journal]
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Photo credit: WCMH-TV
The photo shows the three GOP Senate candidates, Larry, Moe(reno) and Curly, during a recent debate. Leftist Matt Dolan is the stooge who is positioned on the right. Moreno isn't really a stooge of course, but he's certainly surrounded by them here. Speaking of being positioned on the right, the gaslighting article which accompanies that photo was written by an ultra-liberal NPR media twerp and therefore reads like a Dolan campaign commercial. The present: There's another three-way race in Ohio in 2024 for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate. Having patiently waited his turn, Moreno is back for another run and has Trump's endorsement. That endorsement was made in December but, oddly, has not resulted in a great leap forward for Moreno in the polls. The next poll after Trump's blessing actually showed Moreno with a smaller lead over liberal Dolan and moderate Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Subsequent polls did show a small bump for Bernie, however a poll which came out this morning puts Moreno down by 3 points to the liberal Dolan with many voters still undecided less than one week from election day. That poll also shows incumbent ultra-liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown winning vs. all three GOP candidates though not yet breaking 40% against any of them. Brown, like all Democrat Senate nominees in competitive states, has an astronomical advantage in campaign cash over his Republican challengers. LaRose in particular has practically nothing to work with compared to his opponents in both parties. As of the end of February, Brown had raised over $33 million with nearly $14 million of it still in the bank. Dolan and Moreno each are somewhere around $2.4 million while LaRose has the piddly total of $591,000 cash-on-hand. That's not enough to compete for a hotly-contested U.S. House race in a single district these days, nevermind trying to run a statewide campaign in Ohio on such a thin shoestring. Article author Nick Evans, evidently writing on behalf of the Dolan campaign, describes the liberal legislator as "quite conservative". This causes the remainder of the article to be read through tears of laughter by anyone who is actually familiar with Dolan. In an attempt to make Dolan palatable to other supposedly conservative Trump-haters, Evans ludicrously claims that Dolan has worked feverishly to enact the "Trump agenda" in Ohio while at the same time distancing himself from the President as much as possible. Insofar as a political candidate is known by the company he keeps, Dolan is supported by Rob Portman, the former senator and squish who is still highly regarded in RINO circles; and the highest-ranking squish in the state, wimpy Governor Mike DeWine. LaRose is doing just about as well with high-profile endorsements as he is with campaign fundraising (pretty much none at all of either one). LaRose does have the support of liberal Republican congressman Mike Turner of Dayton. Moreno not only has Trump in his corner, but also solid conservatives such as Senators Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, J.D. Vance, Tommy Tuberville, Marsha Blackburn and others with whom Moreno will work as part of the opposition (non-RINO) caucus in the Senate if he is elected. He is also endorsed by bigwigs such as Jim Jordan, Kari Lake, Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump Jr. and (oh well) Newt Gingrich. Like them or not, they are all conservative heavyweights or were in the past (Gingrich). Insofar as a political candidate is known by what he has actually done legislatively, here is Matt Dolan's record:
Yeah Nicky, he's quite the conservative. There is only one logical conclusion, and it's addressed to only one candidate though it's probably already too late to have a significant effect: Drop out now, Mr. LaRose, and endorse Bernie Moreno. Don't be the person responsible for giving the puppetmasters, the media, and other Democrats a win-win in November. Tags:
2024
Senate
Ohio
Moreno & the Two Stooges
Win-win for Democrats
3/4/2024:
[New York] NY Dems adopt new redistricting map with no threat of GOP lawsuit, ending 3-year saga
[Lohud]
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Photo credit: NY "Independent" Redistricting Commission
There's considerable talk about how the Democrats played nice this time by not screwing Republicans as hard as they were expected to (i.e. as hard as possible). Doddering old NYGOP chairman Ed Cox -- yes, THAT Ed Cox, Tricky Dick's son-in-law -- believes that his party was merely bent over to a small degree, therefore he has unilaterally declared that there will be no lawsuits filed against this Democrat gerrymander. As to the argument that squishes like these guys are the best we can do in marginal or left-leaning districts, sometimes it's better to keep your enemies as far away as possible rather than letting them pretend they're "team players". They may be team players, but they aren't necessarily playing for the team whose uniform they are wearing at the moment. For example: there's a liberal Republican stooge in the House from Pennsylvania by the name of Brian Fitzpatrick. He represents a marginal district in the rapidly-deteriorating suburbs of Philadelphia, and Democrats are so satisfied with this RINO that they don't seriously oppose his re-election bids. Fitzpatrick's late brother Michael once served in Congress from this same district. Michael was no conservative by any means, but at least he never forgot which party he belonged to. However in 2023 there was exactly one member of the House of Representatives who voted against his own party more often than he voted with his party. That turncoat was Brian Fitzpatrick, who, over 50% of the time, voted exactly the way the Democrats wanted him to vote. Last week, Brian came in for some flattery from the liberal media when he stated that he and several like-minded traitors in the so-called "bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus" were preparing some shenanigans to do an end-run around Speaker Mike Johnson unless the reluctant Speaker permits a vote on a bill which would send even more American money to the corrupt Democrat money-laundering regime known as "Ukraine". This must happen, so say the RINO scum, without any linkage to legislation which would address real problems of actual concern to the good people of America -- like the unabated sewage flowing north from Mexico which will adversely affect our economy and the integrity (LOL) of our elections. If the Democrat coup is successful in November, look for this traitor to collect his 30 pieces of silver and switch over to the new majority party in the House. BTW, the filing deadline in PA has passed and Fitzpatrick has no viable primary challenger (just one woefully underfunded opponent) and the same Democrat loser who ran halfheartedly in 2022 is running again, albeit with more money this time. So "prymarry hiz azz!!!" isn't going to work this time around; it rarely ever works at all. Speaking of liberal credentials, guess which "Republican" supported President Alzheimer the most in 2022? Actually Fitzpatrick was only second on that list. Number 1 was the late (but not lamented) drooling Trump-hater Adam Kinzinger, who supported the Biden agenda fully 80% of the time with his votes in the House. Here are the 2023 Party Unity scores for the Dirty Dozen who top the RINO charts:
By way of contrast, Santos, whom many of his GOP colleagues abhorred and voted to expel back in December, voted with his party 92% of the time in 2023. He also voted the conservative position on 91% of key votes according to our calculations, so you can see why RINOs and other liberals wouldn't want him around. We'll post Santos' American Conservative Union score along with the scores of all other Congressmen and Senators if that organzation ever gets around to releasing its 2023 ratings of Congress. Of the 25 representatives who deviated from their party most often last year, 24 of them were Republicans. This helps explain why even with a (miniscule and getting smaller) numerical majority in the House, Republicans do not truly have "control". The same phenomenon applies in many state legislatures, particularly out West, where the GOP appears to have tremendous numerical advantages. Those tremendous advantages are often caused by Democrats masquerading as Republicans in order to get elected -- and then, to their delight, these Democrats discover that as moderates/liberals they are comfortably in line with the ideological majority in their GOP caucuses. There was only one House Democrat in 2023, Jared Golden of Maine (72%), who was disunited from the rest of his Democrat comrades at a similar level to those Republicans who are listed above. He represents a Republican-leaning district which voted twice for President Trump but has also voted 3 times for Golden. Between his ability to fool a sufficient number of constituents into thinking that he's a moderate, and having Rigged Choice Voting around to save him when necessary, Golden has managed to be continually re-elected. Maybe that will change when he faces former NASCAR driver and current freshman Maine legislator Austin Theriault in November. Don't get your hopes up too high though; Golden currently has nearly 5 times the amount of money as his Republican challenger. As anyone who looks at candidate financial reports can easily discern, there's not a House district or Senate seat in the U.S. where Democrats can't outspend Republicans by incredible margins if they want to. We're probably going to see more evidence of that in 2024 than ever before. Tags:
2024
U.S. House
New York
Democrat gerrymander
Say goodbye to Speaker Johnson
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